Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Lake, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening, but strong storms are not expected.

2) A strong area of low pressure passing by to the north will bring windy conditions for tomorrow, which could result in some downed trees, large tree limbs and power lines. A Wind Advisory has been issued from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, and southern Greens northward 8 am to 8 pm EDT Thu.

3) There is Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for much of the region, with damaging winds being the main threat, though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

4) Brisk and cool conditions Fri into the weekend with a few showers north and west of the Capital Region before rains returns to close the weekend and open next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak mid and upper level disturbance will continue to bring some widely scattered to scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon into early tonight. Latest SPC RAP mesoanalysis indicates limited instability with generally less than 500 J/kg, as sfc dewpoints are in the mid/upper 40s to lower/mid 50s across eastern NY and western New England. The limited instability will continue to reduce any severe threat. A few winds gusts 30-40 mph may occur with an isolated storm (well below severe limits). High temps top out in the 70s to lower 80s in the mid Hudson Valley with a few cooler readings over the northern mtns. Mid and high clouds will quickly increase tonight ahead of a warm front, as the mid and upper level flow shifts from zonal to southwesterly ahead of the strong upper level trough.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A powerful and anomalous low pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes Region tonight and shift north and east across Georgian Bay and southeast Ontario by 12Z/8am Thu, as the mid and upper level trough will become negatively tilted.
The sfc cyclone will deepen and intensify to 980-985 hPa by the late morning into the afternoon over southern Quebec. The MSLP falls are 2 to 4 STDEVS below normal based on the latest NAEFS and the 850 hPa low-level jet rapidly increases across the region from the south, and then shifts south/southwest at 45-60 KT in the late morning into the afternoon. The V-wind anomalies /southerlies/ are +3 to +5 STDEVs above normal on the latest NAEFS through much of eastern NY and western New England Thu morning/early pm. Downsloping off the northern Catskills, and funneling of the southerly winds up the Hudson River Valley into the Capital Region in the narrow north-south valleys in the Mohawk Valley may produce some wind advisory gusts or near wind advisory gusts causing downed tree limbs, trees and power lines. The gusts may be closer to 40 mph (below Wind Advisory gust thresholds) but with fully leafed trees and a deep and anomalous low these synoptic level winds could cause issues. A surge of warm advection pcpn is expected tonight prior to daybreak, which should limited the wind gusts initially, and this is why we started the advisory at 12Z/8 AM after extensive collaboration with WFOs BUF/BTV/BGM/GYX. We may need to add in a few zones later (i.e. Berkshires and Schoharie Counties.

The 925 hPa winds are also in the 35-50 KT range by the late morning based on some of the short-range guidance. The latest NBM indicates probabilities of 30-80% for >40 mph gusts through the afternoon are highest across the Capital Region, northern Taconics, Lake George Saratoga Region portions of southern VT and southern Herkimer County, as well grazing the northern Berkshires. The greatest impacts will continue to some downed trees, large limbs causing some power outages to be possible due to the fully leaved trees. The advisory runs until 8 pm Thu.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
SPC continues a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across the entire forecast area tomorrow. A high shear and low CAPE environment will be in place, as the forecast area gets briefly in a warm sector. The latest HRRRs show a strong mid and upper level jet streak over the forecast area during the afternoon. The northern third of the forecast area will be located closest to the cyclonic exit region or left front quadrant of a 500 hPa jet streak of 70-90+ KT. Impressive dynamics will be aloft with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 40-60 KT, but the HRRRs only indicate mean SBCAPEs of 250-500 J/kg or less. Some of the CAMs continues to show slightly better instability of 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and even MLCAPE. Sfc dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s and 60s in the narrow warm sector. The question will be if the updrafts can be tall enough to bring down the strong winds aloft. A strongly forced line or a few linear segments seems possible between 11 am to 6 pm EDT Thu, if enough heating occurs and instability is realized. The 0-1 km/0-3 km helicity values are also impressive on the HRRRs and CAMs, as the Sig Tor Parameter /STP/ on the HRRR is 1-2 with pockets to 3 or slightly greater. Tornado probabilities have been added to portions of VT into NH. Even outside this contour, a isolated tornado or two may be possible the strong shear/helicity and the low LCL's in the morning/early pm.

In terms of the impacts, damaging winds bringing down trees, tree limbs, power lines and power poles would be the main impacts.
Subsequent power outages may occur from the wind gusts >58 mph. The severe threat should diminish from west to east quickly in the mid to late pm with strong cold advection in the wake of the cold front and deepening low to north. Brisk west to southwest winds will continue at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25 to 40 mph. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the valleys with the warmest readings near I-84. Expect highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain. Lows fall back into the 50s to lower 60s with a few cooler readings over the Adirondack Park.

KEY MESSAGE 4... The low pressure system occludes and becomes vertically stacked over east/southeast Quebec and the Gulf of St Lawrence by Friday late morning into the afternoon. In the cyclonic flow, it favors some instability rain showers and lake effect enhanced showers may pop-up north and west of the Capital Region. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. It will continue to be brisk with west winds 10-15/15-25 mph with some gusts 25-40 mph. The channeled westerly flow down the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region into the northern Taconics/Berkshires will favored the strongest winds/gusts. The winds may hit below wind advisory thresholds on Fri...but it will be windy for mid-June standards! Highs will be near to slightly below normal for June with 60s and 70s for highs and a few 80 readings in the mid-Hudson Valley. Saturday, features mixed clouds and sunshine with a few showers/thunderstorms and over the northern mtns and zones. Temps will be cool and run slightly below normal to open the weekend. Rain chances increase late Sun/Sun night into Mon with a low pressure system approaching from the south and west. A soaking rainfall may occur for portions of the forecast area, maybe ponding some water in a few spots.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00z Friday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:50 PM EDT. VFR conditions continue through at least 00z with increasing mid and high clouds. There are a few showers near GFL for the first couple hours of the TAF period. These showers look to remain mostly north of the terminal, but if a shower moves overhead then brief MVFR vsby reductions are possible.

Between 06-08z, showers overspread the region from the west as a warm front approaches. Mainly VFR conditions for the first couple hours, but as we head towards daybreak cigs lower to MVFR and likely fuel-alternate, with vsbys dropping to MVFR as well around or shortly after sunrise. A few embedded rumbles of thunder are possible with these showers, but coverage looks too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Some uncertainty how long showers last into tomorrow morning at ALB/POU/PSF, but MVFR cigs likely persist through the rest of the morning. Then, by early afternoon, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to track through the region ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side with gusty winds. VFR vsbys/MVFR cigs expected outside of these showers/storms, but low-end MVFR to IFR vsbys expected within any storms or heavier showers. Line of storms moves off to the east by 20-22z as the cold front tracks off to our east, with a few isolated lingering showers behind the front possible. Behind the cold front, cigs/vsbys both improve back to VFR.

Winds tonight will be at around 5 kt from the SE (locally 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt at ALB), then tomorrow morning winds at all terminals increase to 10-20 kt from the S/SE with gusts to 25-35 kt expected from mid-morning through late afternoon. Winds switch to the W/SW behind the cold front, but remain at 10-20 kt with gusts of 25-40 kt possible through sunset. An unusually strong 45-60 kt S/SW low- level jet moving overhead late tonight into tomorrow morning will lead to LLWS at all terminals from around daybreak through early afternoon tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033- 038>043-048>054-082>084.
MA...None.
VT...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013-014.