Dexter, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dexter, NY

June 22, 2024 3:14 AM EDT (07:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 9:09 PM   Moonset 4:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 455 Pm Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers from late evening on. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Monday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dexter, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 220550 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
While it will still be uncomfortably warm and humid through this weekend, a frontal boundary oscillating back and forth over our region will support enough cloud cover and some thunderstorm activity to somewhat suppress the dangerously high heat indices.
Unfortunately, the daily thunderstorms will carry the risk of torrential downpours and even severe weather. Notably cooler and more comfortable conditions can then be expected next week, especially during the latter half.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Tonight will be fairly dry to the south, with potential for fog formation, especially near areas that received afternoon storms. To the north and near the frontal boundary and deeper moisture a few showers and thunderstorms could not be ruled out, mainly late.
Otherwise it will be another warm night with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday with a frontal boundary still wavering near northern portions of our region, and plenty of instability showers and thunderstorms will again blossom. Favored regions of lake breeze boundrys and near the front will for storms. This will leave just areas NE of Lake Erie with the lowest chances for storms. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s, which with the humidity will yield apparent temperatures 90 to 95F. Deeper moisture/cloud cover east of Lake Ontario will likely keep this area in the mid 70s for highs.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An upper level trough will begin to dive across the upper Midwest Saturday night, causing associated low pressure to strengthen across the central Great Lakes and lift the warm front north of the region.
This will place the area beneath the warm sector, supporting ample warm moist air advection. Overall the chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout Saturday night, with the best likelihood for activity lying across the North Country due to its close proximity to the front.

The now (roughly) 995mb surface low and associated trough will track to the north of the area and result in a windy day Sunday, given the 850mb winds ramp up to nearly 45 knots. Overall this will support the passage of a strong cold front across the area, likely producing thunderstorms with its passage. Organized convection featuring damaging winds will also be possible due to the ample wind shear across the region. With this cold frontal passage, the arrival time will play an important role with convection. There still are significant differences in model guidance timing the frontal passage and strength of the low. SPC has a portion of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Even without thunderstorms, it will be a windy day with wind gusts across the Niagara Frontier around 45 mph.

The cold front will then slide to the east of the area Sunday night, supporting lingering showers and thunderstorms to taper off from west to east.

The potent shortwave trough aloft will move across New England Monday and bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the North Country with lower chances elsewhere. After such a warm and humid week, it will be notably cooler and drier Monday with highs in the 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
An upper level trough over New England Monday night will shift into the Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday, allowing a progressive mid-level ridge to briefly become established across the eastern Great Lakes.
An attendant area of surface high pressure shifting southeast across the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast will provide the forecast area with a period of rain-free weather, while giving temperatures an upwards nudge back into the low and mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return from west to east late Tuesday evening and through Tuesday night as the mid-level ridge moves east, causing a warm front to lift out of the Ohio Valley and into WNY. Confidence is low in timing and coverage of showers/thunderstorms associated with this front as long range guidance is in poor agreement on the evolution of a shortwave expected to slide east across Southern Ontario and the Great Lakes during this same timeframe. Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday as a ~982mb surface low tracks across northern Quebec, sending its elongated cold front through the Northeast. While timing of this front and its associated prefrontal trough remain in question and thus lend lower confidence in how convection will ultimately unfold Wednesday...The system is expected to tap into a deeper plume of GOMEX-based moisture with PWATs potentially climbing to near 2" as it approaches. Thus, any storms that develop and move through the region should have the potential to bring locally heavy rains.

The primary cold front should move through the region Wednesday night, with increasing subsidence and a drier airmass allowing shower/thunderstorm chances to decrease from west to east in its wake. As much of the Northeast sits within the post-frontal airmass, temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday and Thursday night, with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows in the 50s and upper 40s respectively. Dry weather should then last through the end of the week with moderating temperatures as surface high pressure moves over and east of the region.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will continue across much of the region this morning.
However, some low stratus may develop across the Niagara Frontier, causing MVFR to IFR CIGS at KBUF and KIAG. Additionally, some fog has developed across the Genesee Valley and Southern Tier where storms passed through earlier this afternoon.

On Saturday, the main issue will be threat for convection, particularly particularly east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, there could be some MVFR cigs in the morning at KROC with a greater potential for cigs of 1500-2500 ft east at KART and KGTB.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR. A chance for evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Light winds and minimal wave action is expected to continue across the Lower lakes through Saturday. There will still be the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms which could produce gusty winds and higher wave action.

A cold front will approach the region Sunday with increasing southwest winds which may bring a period of SCAs to area lakes. Northerly flow behind the front will then bring continued choppy conditions to the lakes through Monday. High pressure builds in late Monday with diminishing winds and waves for Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 23 mi57 min 68°F30.07
45215 44 mi49 min 71°F 73°F0 ft
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi57 minS 2.9G4.1 70°F 30.0266°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 46 mi75 minNNE 7.8G9.7 69°F 67°F0 ft30.07


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KART WATERTOWN INTL,NY 3 sm18 minENE 0310 smOvercast66°F61°F83%30.06
KGTB WHEELERSACK AAF,NY 18 sm19 minN 0310 smOvercast66°F63°F88%30.04
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Wind History graph: ART
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Tide / Current for
   
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Montague, NY,




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