Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dexter, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Lingering showers east of Lake Ontario will end early this morning, with dry weather and unseasonably cool temperatures otherwise prevailing through tonight.

2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the first half of next week, with a few showers possible at times east of Lake Ontario.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering showers east of Lake Ontario will end early this morning, with dry weather and unseasonably cool temperatures otherwise prevailing through tonight.

A compact but vigorous closed low over western New England will continue to rapidly plunge southeastward and off the New England coastline through this morning...with deep cyclonic flow and lingering moisture on its backside continuing to support scattered to numerous showers east of Lake Ontario through around sunrise.
Expansive Canadian high pressure over Northern Ontario will then build southeastward across the Great Lakes and bring a return to completely dry weather for the bulk of today and tonight. With 850 mb temps bottoming out between zero and +4C this morning and then only warming slightly this afternoon...today will be an unseasonably cool day by late May standards...with highs mainly ranging from the lower 60s across the lower elevations to the upper 50s across the higher terrain...and a moderately brisk north-northeasterly breeze making it feel even a bit cooler at times. Clear skies/light winds and the cool/dry airmass will then allow for a chilly night tonight...with lows ranging from the 40s across the lake plains to the upper 30s across the interior of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes...where a few spots could even get briefly cold enough to support some isolated patchy frost. Even if this were to occur though...its limited areal and temporal scope would preclude the need for any Frost Advisories.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the first half of next week, with a few showers possible at times east of Lake Ontario.

During the first half of next week a large/deep upper trough draped from New England/the Canadian Maritimes southward across the western Atlantic will gradually evolve into a closed low somewhere off the mid-Atlantic coastline...while a pronounced Omega Block over central Canada weakens and devolves into broader/flatter ridging over the western/central Great Lakes. During this time our region will remain embedded within the broad northerly flow in between these two features...with the latter resulting in an extended period of near to slightly below (but quite comfortable) temperatures. At the same time...periodic shortwave impulses dropping through the backside of the larger-scale mean trough will bring the potential for a few showers to the North Country and perhaps portions of the Finger Lakes at times...with mainly dry weather favored further west across far western New York. Later on in the week the closed low should slowly eject northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes while the broad/flat ridge to our west builds eastward...with the latter likely resulting in a warming trend developing.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A compact but vigorous closed low over western New England will continue to rapidly plunge southeastward and off the New England coastline through this morning. Deep cyclonic flow and lingering moisture on its backside will support scattered to numerous showers and MVFR ceilings east of Lake Ontario through around sunrise...with some MVFR ceilings also spreading as far south and west as the interior of the Southern Tier/Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes.

Expansive Canadian high pressure over Northern Ontario will then build southeastward across the Great Lakes and bring a return to completely dry weather for the bulk of today and tonight...with the MVFR ceilings described above giving way to unlimited VFR conditions by midday/early afternoon. Unlimited VFR conditions are then expected to largely continue through tonight...with the possible exception of some patchy fog within the Southern Tier river valleys late.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, with a chance of mid-late afternoon showers across the North Country.

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR with scattered showers across the North Country.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday...VFR.

MARINE
Lingering brisk northerly to north-northeasterly flow will continue to support Small Craft Advisory-worthy conditions on both lakes into this morning...with winds and wave action then diminishing through the balance of the day as high pressure builds southeastward across the Great Lakes.

The high will then provide our region with quiet weather and modest winds/minimal wave action tonight into early Sunday morning...
before westerly winds freshen some across Lake Ontario during the rest of Sunday out ahead of yet another cold front. While winds/ waves are currently expected to remain below SCA levels...these will likely still lead to rather choppy conditions across the eastern end of Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon and evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until noon EDT today for NYZ004>006.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ045.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ043-044.