Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dexter, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry and tranquil weather will continue through this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and tranquil weather will continue through this weekend.

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across our region through the weekend. A moisture-starved cold front will finish crossing the region this afternoon. Behind the front, an incoming cooler air mass will bring some increase in lake-induced instability, with some scattered to broken lake induced cloud cover eventually developing tonight and into Friday morning. A northerly flow will also allow for some upslope clouds to also develop. Moisture profiles are very limited, so there will be no threat for precipitation.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to build to the east and settle over the Northeast Friday and this weekend.
Dry weather and clear to partly cloudy sky are expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Daily highs should moderate from mainly the 50s to 60F Friday to the mid 50s to upper 60s on Sunday as a more southerly flow develops on the western side of the ridge.

The environment should remain favorable for localized and shallow fog in the Black River Valley, Western Southern Tier river valleys, and the lake valleys of the Finger Lakes Region between about 12 AM and 9 AM EDT Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure ridging will continue to affect western and central NY through the 18Z TAF period. A moisture-starved cold front will exit the region this afternoon. Behind the cold front, scattered to broken lake-effect stratocu with bases near 3kft to 4kft AGL are expected move southward this evening, and then generally southwest overnight tonight into Friday morning. The stratocu should result in periodic and borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings.

Outlook...

Friday through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR are expected.
However, localized steam fog with MVFR to LIFR should impact the Black River Valley, Western Southern Tier river valleys, and lake valleys of the Finger Lakes Region each morning.

MARINE
Variable winds under 15 knots will continue this afternoon (more northerly on Lake America) as a cold front moves through the region, with wave heights 2 feet or less.

Behind the front, a ridge builds in as the embedded high pressure center moves from south of James Bay into central Quebec tonight with northerly winds veering NE/E. Speeds should stay less than 15 knots on Lake Erie, but could be as strong as 15 to 20 knots for a short period on Lake America. The strongest winds over Lake America are expected this evening into the predawn hours of Friday morning. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers may occur on Lake America. These expected marginal conditions precluded the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory.

NE/E winds at 15 knots or less Friday will gradually turn southwest over the weekend, as the ridge continues to affect the eastern Great Lakes and the embedded high pressure center drops south to the Atlantic waters near Long Island. Southwest winds Monday will veer to northerly as a cold front drops through the eastern Great Lakes and is followed by a ridge building from central Canada.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.