Marine Weather and Tides
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 6:08AM||Sunset 8:07PM||Saturday August 17, 2019 9:19 AM EDT (13:19 UTC)||Moonrise 8:29PM||Moonset 6:58AM||Illumination 96%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dexter, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
700 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
weekend as weak systems move east across the region, but there will
be plenty of dry time as well. Meanwhile, the airmass will slowly
warm with increasing humidity levels. The warmth will last into
Near term through tonight
Regional radar shows showers and thunderstorms approaching
western new york in advance of a shortwave. The latest update is
slightly faster and more in line with latest radar trends and
hrrr guidance. This area of showers and thunderstorms will enter
far western new york this morning. This shortwave will open
slightly as it lifts across the st. Lawrence through this
evening. This provides confidence that fairly widespread
convection today, with instability parameters similar to
yesterday but with a shortwave to provide a better focus.
Showers and storms will spread from western new york this
morning, eventually settling along the typical lake- breeze
boundaries by early afternoon. This convection will become more
widespread at it moves eastward and into central ny following
the progression of the shortwave. These trends are generally
captured by a consensus of mesoscale guidance, and support
likely or categorical pops for most of the forecast area.
Forecast wind profiles (while not terribly impressive) show a
bit more speed and directional shear than the past two days with
700 mb winds increasing to around 30 knots with the shortwave.
Considering that it has been fairly active the past two days,
expect some thunderstorms to produce gusty winds and hail again
today. Will maintain this mention in the zfp and hwo products.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday but it will be a bit
more humid with dew points increasing to the upper 60s.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening with the
departure of the shortwave, but there may be a few lingering
showers and an isolated thunderstorm with the approach of
another weaker wave late in the night. Expect a partial
clearing behind the shortwave tonight, mainly from buffalo and
rochester northward. With light winds in place, this may allow
fog to develop with any clearing.
Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
This period will continue to feature active summer weather with
storms possible each day. Temperatures will rise well into the 80s,
with humidity creating apparent temperatures in the low to mid 90s
across the lake plain.
Sunday morning a weak warm front will lift across the region with
possible early morning showers and thunderstorms across wny. Behind
this warm front a sticky airmass will push into our region, one that
will increase SBCAPE to 1000 to 2000 j kg. Two shortwaves will
likely pass through the region, with each wave bringing enhanced mid
level lift that will help to blossom thunderstorms. The first wave
passes through our CWA midday... And will likely trigger storms... Of
which some may bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Tracking the
shortwave... Greatest chances for heavier storms will be southern
portions of wny.
A second shortwave will bring convection across the central great
lakes and into the southern peninsula of ontario canada Sunday. This
shortwave feature and storms will continue to push eastward Sunday
night, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms to our western
zones late Sunday evening and into the early morning hours of
Monday. As the convective shortwave weakens Sunday night and
available instability lowers post-storms, convection will weaken to
just a few isolated showers late Sunday night.
Monday a zonal flow will be found across the region, and with no
discernible shortwaves or triggers for convection... It may be a
quieter day for storms. We will still remain very unstable and a few
thunderstorms could blossom within the afternoon heating. Greatest
chances will likely be across the finger lakes region where the
deeper instability will intersect with a ridge of higher theta-e.
Monday night a weak cool front will push into the region from the
nw, that will lower the humidity some across the north country.
This zonal flow will continue into Tuesday. We expect again another
hot and humid day with plenty of instability around, especially
across wny. A frontal boundary... One that brought some drier air to|
the north country and towards areas just south of lake ontario will
lift back northward through the day. Along this warm front more
showers and thunderstorms will develop. Activity will mainly be
across wny, with low chances for convection east of lake ontario
through the day.
Aloft and later in the day the region will begin to feel the
influences of a great lakes trough... With 500 hpa heights beginning
to fall. These falling heights will expand chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the entire CWA Tuesday night.
Long term Wednesday through Friday
This period will feature the transition from summer's humidity and
storms to a fallish period to close out the workweek.
Wednesday's temperatures will be a touch lower than previous
days... With 850 hpa temperatures in the mid to upper teens... And a
fair amount of humidity and clouds around. As the upper level trough
sharpens over the great lakes, height falls within a still very
unstable environment will promote widespread showers and
thunderstorms... Increasing in numbers through the day until a cold
front passes through. There will likely be increased coverage area
of storms in both the prefrontal trough through the day, and then
towards evening when the actual cold front enters our region. Storms
through the day Wednesday and into the early evening hours could
become strong with both gusty winds and hail possible. Increased
lapse rates, bulk wind shear values to 35 to 40 knots, and cape
deepening through the mid levels on forecast soundings will support
these stronger storms. This cold front may come through in
pieces... With the warmer lakes holding the arrival of cooler air
Wednesday night showers along the front and moist cyclonic flow
aloft will also come with a northwest breeze that will bring much
cooler air. Both air and dewpoint temperatures Thursday morning will
be a solid 10 to 15 degrees fahrenheit cooler than the levels they
were at 24-hrs before hand.
Following the mid week cold frontal passage, a large area of high
pressure over the upper great lakes will then build southeast across
the lower great lakes from Thursday into Friday. This will usher in
a notably cooler and less humid airmass. Aside from a low chance for
a few showers on Thursday across eastern areas under the upper level
trough, and possible lake effect rain shower southeast of the lakes
Thursday night, most of the area will see a dry end to the work
week. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the low to mid 70s both
days, with dew points in the 50s. Lows Thursday night will drop into
the 40s for the traditional cooler areas of the southern tier and
east of lake ontario.
Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area from west
to east between 13z and 22z today. These are likely to impact
each TAF site for roughly a 2 hour period as they move through.
There is a risk that a few storms will be strong to severe with
gusty winds and hail.
Showers and storms will exit to the east late this afternoon
with dry weather prevailing after 00z. There will again be a
risk for some fog to develop tonight with relatively light winds
and a partial clearing.
Sunday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of -tsra.
Winds will become more southerly to southwesterly through this
weekend as a warm front pushes across the lower great lakes. Both
winds and waves are likely to remain below small craft
thresholds through mid-week.
A cold front will bring increasing northwesterly winds late
Wednesday, which will increase wave action and may require small
Buf watches warnings advisories
Synopsis... Apffel zaff
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Jm thomas
marine... Apffel zaff
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY||23 mi||50 min||73°F||1014.1 hPa|
|OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY||45 mi||50 min||SSE 8 G 12||70°F||1014.2 hPa||65°F|
|45135 - Prince Edward Pt||46 mi||80 min||S 9.7 G 12||71°F||74°F||1 ft||1013.7 hPa (+0.0)|
|OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY||56 mi||50 min||69°F||71°F||1014.5 hPa|
|RPRN6 - Rochester, NY||97 mi||20 min||SSW 7 G 9.9||70°F|
Wind History for Oswego, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY||2 mi||84 min||S 4||10.00 mi||Fair||69°F||64°F||84%||1014.2 hPa|
|Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY||17 mi||84 min||SSE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||68°F||63°F||86%||1014.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KART
Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NE||E||N||Calm||NW||Calm||NE||NE||N||NE||NE||E||E||E||E||NE||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||E|
|2 days ago||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||NE||E||NE||E||Calm||E||E||NE||NE||E||E||E||NE |
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off)  Help
EDIT (on/off)  Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images(on/off)  HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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