Elba, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elba, MN

June 18, 2024 11:21 PM CDT (04:21 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM
Moonrise 4:54 PM   Moonset 1:44 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 190344 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers/storms will spread east this evening with localized rainfall amounts of 1-2"+ and damaging winds the primary threats, especially west of the Mississippi River.

- Periods of showers/storms continue over the next several days.
Localized higher rain amounts and the cumulative impact of multiple rounds of rain will lead to some river rises and possible flood concerns.

- Drier, somewhat cooler conditions expected for early next week, although this break may be short-lived.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This Evening-Tonight:

Early this afternoon a shortwave trough was ejecting into the northern high plains with a cold front extending southwest from a surface low in northern Minnesota. Ahead of the front a very warm to hot, humid airmass persists across the region with gusty southerly flow. Some gusts around 40 mph could occur through the afternoon for open, unsheltered areas to the west. In addition, a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon/early evening as broad low-level moisture transport interacts with an uncapped atmosphere.

The higher storm chances (>80%) arrive towards evening as the front approaches. With a deep warm cloud layer and stronger deep layer shear lagging the front, storms likely will have the tendency to become outflow dominant as they progress towards the Mississippi River through the evening, with localized higher wind gusts (especially with any bowing segments) and high rain rates the primary hazards. The hail/tornado tornado risks, while non-zero, are considerably lower. The HRRR 24-hr PMM rainfall amounts exceed 1" for some areas west of the Mississippi River with low (10-30%) chances for 2" or more. Low-level shear will be stronger, but overall, confidence in sustained, balanced cold pool development is lower given the weaker deep layer shear. As a result, the highest risk for severe storms likely will be within the first few hours of initiation near and west of I-35, which agrees well with the area of SPC's slight (level 2 of 5)
risk area today, and with the mid-level HRRR UH fields.

Wednesday-Friday:

The front will sag south on Wednesday and slosh north/south through late in the work week with an unsettled weather pattern continuing.
Wednesday will be cooler and cloudier in the post-frontal airmass with little instability present to support much of a thunder threat, but some showers are possible. The boundary likely will remain close to the area within southwest flow leading to periods of showers/storms through Friday and potential for localized heavy rains. Global ensembles continue to indicate 40 to 60 percent chances for 2" of rain this week (through Friday) from northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin, although mesoscale details will impact where higher rain amounts occur. See the hydrology section below for more information as flood risk could increase with repetitive rounds of storms.

Saturday:

There is a somewhat stronger signal for a deeper trough and cold front to pass across the Upper Midwest this weekend. Ahead of the front, temps may climb back well into the 80s late this week, although frontal placement/timing and associated cloud/precip trends lead to higher forecast spread. Some strong/severe storm risk is possible ahead of the trough with sufficient flow on the southern flank of the trough and potential for destabilization ahead of the front, but considerable uncertainty exists in the evolution of this system yet. The GEFS-ML probabilities show 15% chances for severe weather centered on Wisconsin on Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday:

In the wake of the frontal passage, global model guidance indicates at least a transient period of drier weather comes early next week as the flow transitions northwest and a somewhat drier airmass builds in. However, stronger mid-level flow across the northern US into next week within a quasizonal flow could result in a continued active pattern with periodic shortwave passages and shower/storm chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

CIGS: still expecting a drop into MVFR/IFR overnight. Cigs should gradually lift to a SCT-BKN VFR deck in the afternoon with a veil of high/mid level cigs then quickly returning for Wed evening. Models trending toward a return to MVFR by 12z Thu with next area of rain.

WX/vsby: areas of shra/ts slowly dropping south of KRST/KLSE in the overnight with most CAMS edging them south by 10-12z. MVFR associated with any moderate/heavy shower.

WINDS: Showers have been producing enhanced wind gusts late this evening thanks to DCAPES in excess of 1K J/kg along with unidirectional near sfc winds with +40 kts just off the deck per RAP/HRRR soundings. Convection is diminishing in intensity as they near KLSE, limiting this higher end wind gust threat, and the brunt of those winds have already shifted east of KRST.

Winds swinging west/northwest overnight as the cold front shifts east across the area. Winds should lighten up as that happens, mostly near/below 10 kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Multiple rounds of storms capable of heavy rain remain in the forecast for tonight and then from Thursday through Saturday.
Localized rainfall amounts of 1-2+" are possible with each round of storms. There exists a 50 percent chance that any given location in southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin will see storm total rainfall amounts exceed 3 inches by Saturday and a 20 percent chance of those totals exceeding 5 inches. Some of these areas have received 2 to 4" of rain over the past 3 days and will be more susceptible than areas to the south and east to flooding. Each successive round of rain will increase the risk for flash flooding and river flooding. River flooding concerns, especially along the Mississippi River and its Minnesota tributaries will need to be monitored closely.
Many locations along the Mississippi River will approach flood stage towards next weekend (50-70% chance) if rainfall unfolds as forecast.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KONA WINONA MUNIMAX CONRAD FLD,MN 16 sm26 minW 16G2510 smOvercast Rain 82°F68°F62%29.85
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La Crosse, WI,




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