Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elba, MN
December 4, 2023 1:55 PM CST (19:55 UTC)
Sunrise 7:22AM Sunset 4:30PM Moonrise 11:37PM Moonset 12:44PM
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 041800 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
DISCUSSION
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Key Messages:
- Higher snow probabilities and amounts for tonight continue to shift south.
- Continues to look unusually warm from Thursday into Friday.
- It continues to look like a low pressure system will track southeast of the area for this weekend. Still plenty of uncertainty of the northern edge of this precipitation and its type.
Today into Tuesday morning:
At 3 am, a shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies was producing snow across eastern Montana. The 04.00z models are in good agreement that this shortwave through will move southeast across the Northern Plains today and through the Mid Mississippi River Valley tonight. The NBM continues be on the low side when it comes to the precipitation chances, so went more with a blend of the 0.01 inch or greater probabilities in the ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS ensembles to raise these precipitation chances higher (more in the 40 to 70% chance instead of 20-40%) for tonight.
Like the past couple of days, snow amounts for tonight range from just a dusting to a half inch. The highest snow totals will be south of Interstate 90.
High temperatures will range from the mid-30s to lower 40s.
Thursday into Friday:
The 04.00z models continue to show anomalous warmth in the region from Thursday into Friday. The latest NAEFS continues to show that the 850 mb temperatures will range from 4 to 10C on Thursday.
These temperatures are 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.
The WPC's NDFD Forecast Records Tool is hinting that there will be a possibility that there could be some record highs and warmest low temperatures in the region for Thursday.
On Friday, the 850 mb temperatures cool into the 2 to 6C range.
Even then, these temperatures are still 1 to 2 standard deviations warmer than normal.
Considering all this, the NBM temperatures looked a little too cool, so opted to trend them more toward the NBM's 90th percentile. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid-40s to around 50 north of Interstate 94, and from around 50 to the mid-50s elsewhere. Low temperatures on Thursday night will be much closer to our normal high temperatures (in the 30s) than our low temperatures. The high temperatures on Friday will be in the lower and mid-40s north of Interstate 90 and range from the mid-40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
Weekend:
For the upcoming weekend, the models continue shift a southern shortwave trough further southeast. As a result, the precipitation probabilities have decreased some. Another uncertainty for the weekend in the amount of cold air which will be found northeast of this wave. This will impact the temperatures and even precipitation type.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Wide variety of flight conditions across the region today with abundant low level moisture and next short wave trough approaching from the northwest. Meanwhile a whole in the lower stratus brought some VFR conditions to parts of western and southwest Wisconsin but this should gradually evolve back to MVFR as wave draws closer.
Short wave is progged to deepen a bit as it moves through the area tonight but should be enough forcing to generate fairly widespread precipitation. While confidence in where more steady snow might fall is not overly high yet, should be enough impact to bring aviation flight categories down to IFR and possibly LIFR for a time tonight into Tuesday morning. Higher impacts likely south and east of KLSE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
DISCUSSION
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Key Messages:
- Higher snow probabilities and amounts for tonight continue to shift south.
- Continues to look unusually warm from Thursday into Friday.
- It continues to look like a low pressure system will track southeast of the area for this weekend. Still plenty of uncertainty of the northern edge of this precipitation and its type.
Today into Tuesday morning:
At 3 am, a shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies was producing snow across eastern Montana. The 04.00z models are in good agreement that this shortwave through will move southeast across the Northern Plains today and through the Mid Mississippi River Valley tonight. The NBM continues be on the low side when it comes to the precipitation chances, so went more with a blend of the 0.01 inch or greater probabilities in the ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS ensembles to raise these precipitation chances higher (more in the 40 to 70% chance instead of 20-40%) for tonight.
Like the past couple of days, snow amounts for tonight range from just a dusting to a half inch. The highest snow totals will be south of Interstate 90.
High temperatures will range from the mid-30s to lower 40s.
Thursday into Friday:
The 04.00z models continue to show anomalous warmth in the region from Thursday into Friday. The latest NAEFS continues to show that the 850 mb temperatures will range from 4 to 10C on Thursday.
These temperatures are 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.
The WPC's NDFD Forecast Records Tool is hinting that there will be a possibility that there could be some record highs and warmest low temperatures in the region for Thursday.
On Friday, the 850 mb temperatures cool into the 2 to 6C range.
Even then, these temperatures are still 1 to 2 standard deviations warmer than normal.
Considering all this, the NBM temperatures looked a little too cool, so opted to trend them more toward the NBM's 90th percentile. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid-40s to around 50 north of Interstate 94, and from around 50 to the mid-50s elsewhere. Low temperatures on Thursday night will be much closer to our normal high temperatures (in the 30s) than our low temperatures. The high temperatures on Friday will be in the lower and mid-40s north of Interstate 90 and range from the mid-40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
Weekend:
For the upcoming weekend, the models continue shift a southern shortwave trough further southeast. As a result, the precipitation probabilities have decreased some. Another uncertainty for the weekend in the amount of cold air which will be found northeast of this wave. This will impact the temperatures and even precipitation type.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Wide variety of flight conditions across the region today with abundant low level moisture and next short wave trough approaching from the northwest. Meanwhile a whole in the lower stratus brought some VFR conditions to parts of western and southwest Wisconsin but this should gradually evolve back to MVFR as wave draws closer.
Short wave is progged to deepen a bit as it moves through the area tonight but should be enough forcing to generate fairly widespread precipitation. While confidence in where more steady snow might fall is not overly high yet, should be enough impact to bring aviation flight categories down to IFR and possibly LIFR for a time tonight into Tuesday morning. Higher impacts likely south and east of KLSE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KONA WINONA MUNIMAX CONRAD FLD,MN | 16 sm | 40 min | SSW 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 28°F | 75% | 29.96 |
Wind History from ONA
(wind in knots)
La Crosse, WI,
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