Rochester, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, MN

June 19, 2024 9:42 AM CDT (14:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM
Moonrise 6:07 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 191022 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 522 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quieter and cooler through tomorrow with periods of showers, mainly in NE Iowa/SW Wisconsin today and areawide on Thursday.

- Warmer and wetter weather surges back north for Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rain and a few strong storms possible north of I-90.

- Another brief respite from the warmth and rainfall Sunday into Monday, but the potential for active weather still looms for midweek.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Today - Thursday: Cooler with Periods of Showers

Despite ample atmospheric moisture, the lack of favorable forcing kept the threat for heavy rain tempered yesterday evening with only portions of south-central Minnesota and north-central Iowa seeing over 0.50" of rain. A 40-kt LLJ overriding the near-surface front has led to some redevelopment along the advancing cold front early this morning in northeast Iowa, with another 0.5" to 1" of rain expected from these training cells before winding down around sunrise.

The nebulous surface front drops through the region this morning and eventually sets up from southern Iowa to northern Illinois. However, while the surface wind shift migrates well to the south, there will be very little baroclinicity along the boundary with 60-65 degree dewpoints lingering well north of the frontal axis. The lower tropospheric frontal surface slopes back across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin today and while forcing for ascent will be weak and mesoscale in nature, multiple rounds of showers are possible along this surface through the day. HRRR PMM rainfall totals for today and tonight are quite low and generally less than 0.5" of rain is expected today and tonight (once this overnight convection fades).

Low clouds linger for this morning, giving way to mid/high clouds for the afternoon north of the lower tropospheric front. Coupled with the cold air advection behind the front, highs today should remain confined in the 70s.

The boundary moves little today and tonight with weak 500-mb height rises to the north and a retrograding synoptic ridge to the south.
By Thursday morning, the upstream pattern gradually amplifies and allows the 925-700 mb front to lift back northward. Synoptic moisture transport along the front remains minimal today and tomorrow, limiting the risk of any heavy rain to mesoscale features/forcing. There does exist some timing differences for how quickly this boundary lifts northward, which will dictate how soon the heavy rain threat discussed below will begin (possibly as early as Thursday evening).

Friday - Saturday: Warm and Muggy, Heavy Rain Threat Returns

The front lifts into central MN/WI for Friday as upstream troughing over the west coast amplifies and ejects a series of perturbations across the north-central CONUS. A series of training thunderstorm complexes may work along the front during the day on Friday into Saturday morning. This synoptic setup favors heavy rain and possibly flash flooding. The 19.00Z NBM membership of global models is pretty locked into the heavy rain corridor from central Minnesota to central Wisconsin with >80% of the members showing over 2" of rain and 30% of the members showing over 4".

A look at the individual members shows that an axis of heavy rain exists in nearly every one. Therefore, it is not so much a matter of if, but where, the heavy rain occurs. The highest EPS/GEFS members have 5-6 inches of rain. Remember that these are global models and oftentimes under-perform in convectively- driven rainfall events, so it is very possible that these amounts are realized in some locales. However, each round of storms will be influenced by their predecessors and the axis of heavy rain could easily shift in space and time (or fail to occur).

By Saturday afternoon, the west coast trough lifts into the northern CONUS and ushers a cold front southeastward through the region. It is a little soon to ascertain the severe weather threat with this frontal passage, but there is a 5-15% severe weather signal from the GEFS ML products.

Sunday - Tuesday: Briefly Cooler and Drier

A shot of cooler Canadian air arrives in the wake of the cold front for Sunday, dropping dewpoints below 60 degrees and highs to around 75 to 80 degrees. Diurnal showers in the post-frontal cyclonic flow results in lower PoPs on Sunday, but otherwise this period features the best potential for drier conditions.
The surface ridge passes through by Monday midday and return southerly flow sets in for Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Warmer air streams northward again ahead of the next shortwave in the zonal flow pattern, but the medium to longer range solutions diverge quickly on the timing and strength of this wave to delve into any details yet. Such a patter would once again favor more rounds of showers and storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 521 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

MVFR conditions this morning in conjunction with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms shifts to south of a CCY to ISW line by late morning and lifts to VFR by early afternoon. Ceilings south of that same line may start to fall back to MVFR overnight with showers starting to spread back northward. Winds will be light at 5-10 kts and gradually veer from the NW to the N by early this afternoon and then the ENE by the end of the TAF period.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

There will be a break from the heavy rain threat today and Thursday, but another round of heavy rainfall (2-5 inches) looms for Friday and Saturday across central Minnesota into central Wisconsin. This heavy rain across already saturated soils will result in continued rises along the Mississippi and any tributaries affected by this heavy rain. Many locations along the Mississippi River will approach flood stage towards next weekend (50-70% chance) if rainfall unfolds as forecast.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KRST ROCHESTER INTL,MN 10 sm18 minNW 1110 smPartly Cloudy64°F57°F77%30.19
KTOB DODGE CENTER,MN 18 sm27 minWNW 0710 smOvercast61°F57°F88%30.21
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La Crosse, WI,




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