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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 354 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming west 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 112021 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 321 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

DISCUSSION

Large scale pattern throughout this work week offering a rather prototypical look for a cold season governed by El Nino. Sustained flow out of the Pacific continues to limit both residence time and magnitude of meaningful height falls originating from Canada, effectively mitigating potential arctic air intrusions and lending to a stretch of seasonable to above average temperatures. This also leaves the region void of noteworthy synoptic level features or greater moisture quality to provide focus for better precipitation potential this period, translating into rather dry/benign conditions for mid December standards.

Seasonable thermal profile entrenched this afternoon within the background of strengthening mid level subsidence and associated deep layer stability/dryness atop a lowering inversion. Stubborn stratus held within the narrowing sub-inversion moist layer likely to persist into the evening with the low level thermal trough still anchored locally. Passing inconsequential flurry plausible as low level flow backs with time and draws a lake aggregate theta-e plume eastward to accompany the gradual exit of the trough axis. Loss of supportive saturation with modest low level warming will then support a clearing of lower cloud overnight. Despite this, the combination of the ongoing waa and encroaching high based cloud maintains a higher floor for prospective low temperatures Tuesday morning - mid to upper 20s most locations.

Height falls associated with a closed low tracking across northern Ontario will glance across the great lakes Tuesday. Attendant cold front arrives locally during the daylight period. Paltry moisture depth associated with this fropa, with extremely dry conditions holding above 4k ft. This maintains dry conditions, with some question yet as to possible extent of cloud cover. Longer pre- frontal warm air advection window across the southern section will bring temperatures into the 40s. The overall increase in the gradient offers a diurnally enhanced gusty southwest to westerly condition - 25 to 30 mph throughout the day.

Stretch of deep layer stability solidified by confluent mid level northwest flow and a 1045 mb high centered just to the south will mark conditions Wednesday and Thursday. A generally seasonable post- frontal thermal profile left behind for Wednesday, but with the lack of moisture quality pointing to a higher degree of insolation potential. Warming trend into Thursday as large scale heights rebound. Thermal profile continues to moderate through Friday - projected highs nearing 10 degrees above normal.

MARINE

A cold front moving toward western Lake Superior this afternoon causes gradual backing of westerly winds ahead of it tonight.
Southwest winds ramp up after midnight as the front arrives over northern Lake Huron, with wind speeds of 20 to 30 knots across the area through Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon. Model data continues to show moderate probabilities for gusts to 35 knot gales across Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron, and have upgraded the watch to a Gale Warning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect elsewhere due to gusts to 30 knots and waves in the 3 to 5 foot range. Post-frontal winds shift to the west Tuesday afternoon and ease in magnitude slightly as cooler air brings scattered snow/rain showers across Lake Huron. Gusty westerly flow to around 30 knots continues across northern Lake Huron through Tuesday night and into Wednesday, but gales are currently not expected. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will bring a decreasing trend to the westerly winds by late Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1219 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

AVIATION...

Overcast skies towing the VFR-MVFR line remain entrenched over southern lower MI this afternoon as west flow continues to draw in low level lake moisture. Winds gradually turn to southwesterly by this evening ushering in milder, slightly drier air which is expected to dissipate/shunt lingering lake cloud out of the area overnight. Low pressure tracking across northern Ontario Tuesday results in strengthening southwesterly flow locally by Tuesday morning with peak gusts in the 20-25kt range. Associated cold front then swings through latter half of the day leading to a shift back to cooler west-northwest flow. While low VFR to perhaps borderline MVFR cloud increases daytime Tuesday in advance of the front, frontal passage itself will be dry.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet through this evening, low by late tonight.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ363-421-422-441- 462.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for LEZ444.

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