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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 325 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

ANZ100 325 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm generally quiet weather is expected for the rest of the week as high pressure settles across the waters. A developing storm center impacts the waters Sunday night into Monday, with gale to storm force winds possible.

FXUS61 KGYX 072107 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 407 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
If you thought last night was cold, well tonight will feature temperatures as cold if not a couple degrees colder. However the cold will be short lived, as a warming trend will begin Friday and last through the weekend. Temperatures will climb into the 50s for many areas by Sunday, but rain will be close behind. A strong storm will bring a combination of a soaking rain and strong wind gusts to the area. It will be a quick moving storm with clearing expected late Monday. Gusty winds continue and colder temperatures return through midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
High pressure remains firmly planted over the region which will help to crash temperatures down once again under clear skies.
Up north low temperatures will fall below zero. The foothills and interior will single digits and low teens. Across the south, locations will see mid to upper teens. Clouds may spill over into western New Hampshire tonight, but with a dry airmass overhead there won't be any worry for precipitation.



SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Short wave ridging tomorrow will make for another dry day with light winds. High temperatures will be able to warm into the upper 20s and low 30s in the north and mountains, and mid 30s to near 40 across the south.

Ridging moves off to the east and a trough begins to approach the region which will increase cloudiness from west to east as the evening goes on. This will keep temperatures much warmer than we have seen in recent nights. Expect temperatures in the mid to upper teens to the north and 20s to the north. With a dry airmass still overhead and no forcing, there shouldn't be any concern for precipitation during this period either.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Overview: Brief ridge slips east of the area Sat and will be followed by a deep trof that gradually flattens but remains in place thru the end of the week
Temps remain below normal
and while precip may average above normal over the next week it is mostly expected to fall Sun night into Mon.

Impacts: Storm system Sun into Mon will bring a combination of strong winds and heavy rains. The extent of either remains uncertain. At this time a period of strong wind gusts is likely at the coast Mon morning...potentially greater than 60 mph north of PWM. Poor drainage and overland flooding is possible across all of the forecast area...with snow melt determining whether river flooding occurs. See Hydrology section for more details.

Forecast Details: S/WV ridge axis moves east of the forecast area Sat allowing deep southwesterly flow will set up over the Eastern Seaboard. This will advect seasonally significant PWAT values into northern New England. At this time the system appears progressive enough to limit QPF to between generally 0.50 to 1.50 inches. I do not see the storm speeding up any from current forecasts...so the trend to monitor will be if it slows down at all or pivots and allows residence time of convective fine line to linger over any areas. The Hydrology section below covers the threats posed by rainfall in more detail.

The southerly LLJ will also increase with time into Mon morning and bring a period of strong wind gusts to at least coastal areas. The inland push of milder air and low level lapse rates will be something higher resolution model guidance will start to glimpse over the next 12 to 24 hrs...but at this time forecast wind speeds at 925 mb suggest coastal areas are in line for at least a wind advisory. The LLJ peaks mostly north of Casco Bay...and so the Midcoast zones are more at risk of seeing gusts come closer to high wind criteria. There is far more uncertainty southwest along the coast...where LLJ orientation is more southerly than southeasterly. This may limit the peak gusts and inland extent of winds...especially across the Seacoast. Much of this will also depend on storm track...where overnight guidance was more easterly and kept strongest winds out to sea...07.12z guidance came back west and maintained the wind threat. For now I kept the forecast close to the median NBM forecast...consistent other ensemble guidance on wind speeds/gusts.

Beyond the early week storm...CAA continues for much of the week. This will keep winds gusty and colder than normal temps in place. Precip chances will revolve around individual S/WV trofs and upslope flow.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions will prevail through Friday.
Ceilings thicken as our next system approaches Friday night.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected for the majority of the area to star the period Sat. Clouds will thicken and lower thru Sun with widespread IFR or lower conditions in low CIGs and RA thru Mon morning. A period of LLWS is also likely for coastal terminals at least Mon morning. Winds shift to westerly Mon afternoon and will remain gusty into midweek. Clearing is expected quickly Mon south of the mtns...but MVFR CIGs may linger around LEB and HIE in upslope flow.

MARINE
Short Term...High pressure settling over the waters will keep winds and waves below SCA thresholds. Freezing spray is possible tonight through early tomorrow morning.

Long Term...Southerly winds will steadily increase ahead of the next storm system. Storm force gusts will be possible for all waters Sun night into Mon morning. I have used the highest of wave guidance to get seas building to near 15 ft by Mon morning...which may end up being higher if storm force winds are realized. Winds shift to westerly behind the storm and will remain gusts at least SCA thresholds thru the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY
A soaking rain is expected to move into the region Sunday and increase in coverage and intensity Sunday night into Monday. The moisture feed into the region pushes PWATs into the climatological max territory (~1.2"), which is 3 standard deviations above normal.
Strong SW winds feeding the system will support high rainfall rates, more comparable to the warm season. Heavy rain could result in urban flood concerns and rapid rises on small streams, some of which have recently grown ice. The big ? will be the snowmelt factor, which is too uncertain to ascertain this far out. Coastal areas will likely see a melt out, with notable loss in the coastal plains to the foothills. System will need to be watched closely for potential river flooding.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Richmond
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Thu -- 01:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:08 AM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM EST     4.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:41 PM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Richmond, Kennebec River, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Thu -- 12:29 AM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     0.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:02 PM EST     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:01 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:17 PM EST     0.61 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

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