NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A sprawling ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Northeast and Great Lakes region as the remnants of TS Francine climb northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This will effectively create a Rex Block pattern along and east of the Mississippi Valley, which will all but guarantee fair dry weather and light winds through Thursday for our forecast area. As the center of the surface high settles off the New England coast, a gentle but persistent south-southeasterly return flow will continuously circulate warmer air into the eastern Great Lakes. 850H temps nearing +15C will translate to surface temperatures more akin to early July by Thursday.

Early this morning however, temperatures are on the crisp side especially across the interior hilltops where temps have dipped well into the 40s, some 30s being observed across the Western Dacks.
Outside of some thin cirrus, the mostly clear skies have also allowed for river valley fog to develop down in the Southern Tier.

Once the fog lifts and burns off by mid morning, expect mostly sunny skies occasionally filtered through passing high clouds.
Temperatures will recover quickly, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s south of Lake Ontario, and low/mid 70s east of the lake.

Tonight and Thursday will largely be "rinse and repeat", though with a few degrees tacked on to highs and lows. Another round of river valley fog in the Southern Tier will accompany lows in the low/mid 50s, with upper 50s to low 60s north to the Lake Ontario shoreline.
Across the North Country it will cool off nicely again, with temps back down into the upper 40s across the Tug and Western Dacks. As alluded to previously, Thursday will be quite warm with the mercury climbing well into the low and mid 80s in most spots south of Lake Ontario, with mid 70s to low 80s east of the lake.

In addition to the warmer temperatures...Hi-res guidance continues to indicate that an elevated plume of wildfire smoke will drift overhead from the northwest by this evening. No impacts to surface air quality are expected, though the moon tonight and daytime sky tomorrow may have a particularly hazy look.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Delightful late summer weather will be firmly entrenched throughout the northeastern United States during this period...as OUR forecast area will be directly under the core of a mid level ridge. This anticyclone will be part of a Rex block that will have its axis to our west during the bulk of the period. The other (equatorward)
component to this block will be the extratropical remnants of Francine...which will be centered over the Lower Mississippi valley.

The aforementioned ridge to the north will be like a brick wall...
blocking the northward push of moisture from Francine..and with the help of widespread subsidence...it will keep our skies mainly cloud free through the period. Note that I did not say 'clear' skies...as a fair amount of elevated smoke from a wildfire in Idaho will blanket our skies Thursday night through at least Friday night. For our area...this should be most noticeable near and east of Lake Ontario...while the heart of the smoke plume will likely be over Canada.

In any case...it will feel more like late July than mid September during this period...as daytime highs will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows of 55 to 60. Daytime highs will average a full 10 degrees above normal values.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The protective Rex block will be in the process of breaking down...
or at least becoming reoriented...as we open this period. While this will start to crack the door open for moisture to get back into our region...ensembles and certainly operational guidance packages are insisting that fair warm weather will persist. This looks quite reasonable.

The deep area of high pressure that made up the northward component to the block is forecast to drift to the east across our forecast area to New England by Tuesday. While the last vestiges of Francine will WELL to our west over the Upper Mississippi valley...a new moisture source to our south will take the spotlight. The next tropical system could be making its way northward from the Southeast coast...and with a negatively oriented ridge in place over our region...the door will gradually open for the tropical moisture over the Carolinas to advect northward across the Mid Atlantic region.
This could translate into increased cloud cover and possibly some rain as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday...just outside of this forecast package.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mainly VFR will prevail through the 12z TAF cycle (and beyond) as a large area of surface high pressure remains anchored across the Northeast. Outside of some thin passing mid and high clouds at times, skies are expected to remain mostly clear with light winds.

The only real risk of flight restrictions will be in areas of river valley fog in the Southern Tier, which could bring IFR conditions to KJHW early this morning and again tonight. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 13 or 14z.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR. Patchy fog with local IFR each late night and morning, mainly across the river valleys of the Southern Tier.

MARINE
High pressure dominating the region will result in mainly light winds across the lakes through the rest of the week. Little to no wave action is expected through this time as well. The light winds and strong differential heating will allow lake breezes to develop most days, with locally onshore flow each afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.