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LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent...
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include... Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat...lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 230614 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 214 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
The northern reaches of the outer bands of Tropical Storm Ophelia (just off the coastline of North Carolina) are stretching across the region this evening. While the main impacts of Ophelia will remain well to the south and east of the forecast area, a few rain showers may push into the far southeastern portions Saturday night and Sunday. Then, high pressure will return for the start of the new work week supporting the return of fair dry weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Currently spilled across the region are the northern reaches of the outer bands of Tropical Storm Ophelia, which is located just off the shoreline of North Carolina. Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the night as the tropical system moves northward. With the cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer tonight with lows falling into the mid 40s across the higher terrain and low 50s elsewhere. Due to the high cirrus across far western New York, some river valley fog is possible across the Allegany River and its tributaries tonight.

As Tropical Storm Ophelia pushes northward along the Eastern Seaboard, associated precipitation will approach southern New York by Saturday evening. This all being said, the main impact Saturday will result in thickening cloud cover from south to north. Showers may reach Allegany County by late Saturday night. It will be cooler Saturday with highs in the 60s to low 70s due to the cloud cover.
Lows Saturday night will drop into the low to mid 50s, with a few upper 40s across the higher terrain.

Sunday surface high pressure centered over the provinces of Ontario and Quebec will extend southward across the eastern Great Lakes will battle with the northward push of Tropical Storm Ophelia. While a moderately strong easterly jet between the upper low and the ridge of high pressure will continue to feed Atlantic moisture across northern Pennsylvania, the precipitation shield will advance northward further into southern New York, keeping the far northern portions of the forecast area will remain dry. Highs Sunday will warm up into the 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A staunch Omega block...featuring an anomalously strong ridge centered over James Bay/nrn Quebec...will dominate our weather during this period. Given our favorable position in relation to this block...the vast majority of this time frame will include clear to partly cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures. The only opportunity for some showers will come early on...when the weakening remnants of Ophelia could keep some nuisance activity over parts of the wrn Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region Sunday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The Omega block from the previous couple days will transition to a high-over-low Rex block that will basically straddle the Lower Great Lakes. This will result in a cool, dry Canadian sfc high that will slowly build southeast from Quebec to northern New England while low pressure will remain draped from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. There will be a rather sharp divide between these two airmasses in terms of moisture content. While not remaining completely stationary, this boundary is expected to remain in the vicinity of the southwestern portions of the forecast area and across Lake Erie. For most of the region, sensible weather will see much greater influence from the Canadian high rather than the low...With fair, quiet conditions prevailing through at least the end of the week. Across far western NY and the Southern Tier, expect increased cloud cover where the boundary wavers, though have lowered PoPs from NBM to just sChc as the deeper moisture and forcing looks to stay to our southwest.

Temperatures will average near normal through the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Despite the increasing cloud cover from the northern reaches of the outer bands of Tropical Storm Ophelia, flight conditions remain VFR.
Cloud cover will continue to push across the region tonight, though the cirrus will likely be thin enough across the western Southern Tier to support some valley for to form, and possibly reaching into KJHW. Outside of the MVFR conditions the fog will create, VFR conditions will persist Saturday and Saturday night despite the thickening cirrus.

Thickening clouds Sunday will cause clouds to lower to low end VFR across the northern and northwestern portions of the region and to MVFR ceilings across the southern and southeastern portions of the region impacting KJHW.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Surface high pressure will exit the region tonight, supporting a light east to southeast wind across both lakes, diminishing waves through Saturday morning.

Northeast winds will increase on both Lakes Erie and Ontario later Saturday through Sunday. Due to elevated winds and waves Small Craft criteria will likely be met late Saturday on Lake Erie and by late Saturday night on Lake Ontario. Elevated winds across Lake Ontario will last into Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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