Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 11:32 AM   Moonset 2:35 AM

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LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;855567 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
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lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 161058 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 658 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Expansive Canadian based high pressure will provide another day of dry weather today that will last through the bulk of tonight.
Unsettled weather will then return for Wednesday into Thursday as a broad area of weakening low pressure passes by to our northwest.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Upper level trough slides east into New England today, while upper level ridge amplifies over the central and upper Great Lakes. At the surface, expansive high pressure over Hudson Bay will ridge south across the lower Great Lakes guaranteeing a dry and pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and a mainly light breeze. Daytime highs will range from the lower to mid 50s east of Lake Ontario to the lower and mid 60s across most areas from the Finger Lakes westward, although some upper 50s will hang on toward the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and across the higher terrain of the western Souther Tier.

Surface ridge axis slides slowly east across eastern NY and western New England tonight, while highly amplified upper level ridge nudges over the lower Great Lakes. These features will ensure dry weather continues for the bulk of the tonight. The exception may be across far western NY late tonight as the leading edge of a band of showers associated with a warm front extending well east of an area of low pressure moving east across the upper Mississippi Valley approaches from the west. Lows will range from the low to mid 30s across the North Country to the low and mid 40s across far western NY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A mid-level ridge axis will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday. Surface high pressure will weaken across the region as surface low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes region. The nose of a 35kt low level jet will arrive in western NY Wednesday morning and increasing moisture ahead of a surface warm front will support strengthening rain showers across western NY.
Showers will move east, however strong subsidence across northern New England will slow forward progression and keep areas east of Lake Ontario mainly dry through Wednesday afternoon. The warm sector will move into far western NY by afternoon and this will introduce the slight chance for thunderstorms into Wednesday evening. The better chance for thunderstorms will be ahead of an advancing cold front across central and eastern Ohio during peak heating time, however it is possible some rumbles of thunder move into far western NY into the evening hours. An area of rain showers ahead of an advancing warm front will move east into the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday night. Surface high pressure over northern New England will continue to weaken and slow forward progression of showers. In fact, little to no rain is possible across the North Country through Wednesday night. The cold front will move into the region overnight with drier air filtering in from the west. Rainfall amounts will range from about a half inch across far western NY to a quarter inch or less east of Lake Ontario Wednesday through Wednesday night. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across western NY during this time. The risk for any flooding is limited as convection is forecast to diminish as it moves into western NY.

The cold front and warm front will slow down and become occluded Thursday. Drier air will move into western NY where breaks of sun are possible Thursday. Coverage of showers will diminish through Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A large trough will move into the Great Lakes region and bring another round of unsettled weather and notably, cooler air for the weekend. Initially, surface low pressure will move into Hudson Bay Friday through Friday night. An associated cold front will approach the region and rain showers will likely spread from west to east across the forecast area Friday. Mostly dry conditions are likely Friday night before the upper level trough moves overhead Saturday.
Daytime heating with cool air aloft will increase chances for diurnal rain showers Saturday into Saturday evening. Activity will likely diminish overnight before an upper level trough axis swings through the region Sunday. This may produce additional rain showers however probability is low at this time. Cold air advection through the weekend will keep temperatures below normal. A large area of high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region late in the weekend into Monday resulting in mostly dry conditions across the eastern Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Other than some mid level decks (7-10kft) across western NY through the mid morning hours, widespread VFR conditions and mainly light winds will be the rule through the entire TAF period as high pressure remains in control across western and northcentral NY.

Mid and upper level decks will start to thicken and lower across western NY late tonight ahead of warm front set to move into western NY on Wednesday. Low VFR CIGS and a few scattered rain showers may reach KJHW by the tail end of the TAF period.

Looking a bit further ahead, expect flight conditions to deteriorate Wednesday, especially across western NY, where MVFR CIGS and some rain showers will be possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE
High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes today. Expect light breezes with an onshore flow developing on both Lakes by this afternoon.

Winds turn easterly and elevate later tonight with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible on Lake Ontario, especially on the western end ahead of an approaching warm front late tonight and Wednesday. Winds turn more southerly on both Lakes behind the warm front by Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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