Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape Vincent, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) After a break in shower activity tonight, gusty winds and more rain arrive Monday.

2) Continued much warmer and unsettled weather through much of the mid to late week period.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...After a break in shower activity tonight, gusty winds and more rain arrive Monday.

The warm front will move north of the region this evening, supporting a period of dry time across much of the region overnight.
Although, a few showers may be possible across the far portions of the North Country due to the close proximity of the front.

A cold front will approach the region from the west early Monday morning before crossing from west to east throughout the remainder of Monday. With its passage, expect rain showers to return to the region from west to east. Additionally, a strong (over 50kt)
low- level jet within the warm sector will cross the eastern Great Lakes region Monday ahead of the cold front. Despite poor low-level lapse rates, partial mixing will support wind gusts between 25-35 mph across much of the region, where a few over 40mph gusts will be possible northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued much warmer and unsettled weather through much of the mid to late week period.

Following the passage of Monday's weak system...the rest of the work week will feature digging troughing across western North America...
which in turn will translate into gradually amplifying downstream ridging over the eastern CONUS. Within this slowly amplifying larger- scale flow...multiple weak to modest shortwave disturbances will ripple east-northeastward while interacting with/modulating the position of a low-level frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will result in the latter wavering back and forth over/near our region while also serving as the conduit for periodic rounds of showers and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.

Taking a little bit of a deeper dive into the details...we can expect a veritable train of hard-to-time weak shortwave impulses to track across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec Monday night through Wednesday...with at least a couple of attendant surface lows lifting northeastward along the frontal boundary left behind by Monday's system. The passage of these features will encourage the front to lift back northward again as a warm front in a couple of segments between later Monday night/Tuesday and Tuesday night/early Wednesday...with the boundary then settling back south again as a cold front later Wednesday following the passage of the second surface wave
Consequently
we can expect frequent opportunities for showers during this 48 hour period
In addition
building warmth/moisture will also allow for the development of at least modest to locally moderate instability both Tuesday and Wednesday...which should be supportive of at least some widely scattered/scattered thunderstorms both days. This will particularly be the case along/on the warm side of any developing lake breeze boundaries and Wednesday's cold frontal passage
The above said
elevated instability attendant to the warm frontal segments could also lead to a few nocturnal/early morning storms as well Monday night into Tuesday morning...and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With PWATs climbing to between 1.25" and 1.50"...any heavier showers or storms could generate locally heavy downpours.

Heading into the latter part of the week...a stronger shortwave trough over the Plains states still looks to slide eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night through Thursday night...with its associated surface low making its way from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The passage of this next system will again cause the frontal boundary to lift back north across our region as a warm front Wednesday night/early Thursday...then back south as a cold front later Thursday/Thursday night. This will generate additional rounds of showers and a few more thunderstorms...with modest ridging at all levels then building overhead in time to finally support a mainly dry and quiet Friday.

As for temperatures...this pattern will support readings more typical of late springtime/early summer than the second week of April. Expect daily highs to range from the upper 60s to the 70s away from lake influences...with a few of our normal interior warm spots in the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes possibly even reaching or breaking the 80 degree mark at points
Meanwhile
nightly lows will largely be in the 50s/lower 60s. With surface dewpoints also climbing into the upper 50s/lower 60s it will also feel a touch humid for much of the Tuesday-Thursday period...before humidity levels drop off again for the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will continue across western and north-central NY this evening. A low level jet will move overhead tonight with 45- 50knots at 1-2k above the surface. Low level wind shear is anticipated at all the TAF sites, with occasional weaker gusts reaching the surface by daybreak.

An upper level disturbance will move northwest of the area Monday morning. A weak cold front and rain showers will cross the region.
The chance for showers is higher across the Buffalo-Rochester corridor and Watertown. Mostly dry weather with widely scattered showers across interior portions of the region Monday afternoon.
Flight conditions will become MVFR from west to east Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday...VFR/MVFR (IFR at times) with a few showers likely at times, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
The area will remain between exiting high pressure to the east, and an approaching warm front, supporting an increasing pressure gradient and a gradual strengthening of offshore winds. There will be a more noticeable uptick in the winds this evening, with a fresh south to south-southwest breeze developing on the lakes tonight and Monday. A period of strong southerly breezes across the eastern third of Lake Ontario will begin this evening, with winds and waves increasing across the eastern end of Lake Erie and the western half of Lake Ontario overnight. Small Craft headlines are in effect through Monday before winds and waves subside below advisory criteria Monday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LOZ044-045.