Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape Vincent, NY
May 16, 2024 7:19 AM EDT (11:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 12:36 PM Moonset 1:51 AM |
LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601
LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 161112 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 712 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across our region today. While this will support mainly fair dry weather over our region, a few showers will still be possible well south and east of Rochester, especially east of Lake Ontario. A poorly organized frontal boundary will then promote some shower activity Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures and relatively humid conditions can be expected into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Broad mid level trough has shifted to our southeast and closed off just south of Long Island with the spin aloft easily identified on IR satellite this morning. Our area will remain rain free into the start of today, however areas of patchy dense fog will continue to cause areas of reduced visibility across portions western and northcentral NY lasting through the morning commute for which a SPS has been issued.
A weak area of surface high pressure will try to nose in from the northwest, while aloft a mid level ridge builds over western NY through the day. This will bring mainly dry weather to the region, although there may be a few showers across the far interior western Southern Tier/Finger Lakes, and particularly east of Lake Ontario, especially from around midday into the afternoon hours when enough diurnal instability may develop between the weak ridging aloft over western NY and the weak closed low just south of New England.
Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the higher terrain, even cooler along the lakeshores where an onshore flow is present. High pressure takes hold surface and aloft tonight which will provide dry and quiet weather with lows mainly in the low and mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough cutting through the upper Great Lakes will bring with it showers and some thunderstorms Friday through Friday night.
At this point...instability is still looking fairly limited Friday afternoon with advertised MUCAPE ranging between 300-700 J/kg and only modest 0-6km bulk shear values
That said
it is still possible that we could see a few stronger storms, especially on any subtle boundaries
Otherwise
it will be mild with temperatures generally found in the 70s, cooler near the lake shores.
The front will slowly eases across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night, with showers gradually diminishing from west to east. There may still be some lingering showers east of Lake Ontario early Saturday morning. A shortwave passing to our south in concert with diurnal heating may allow for a few showers to fire up again in the afternoon. This will especially be the case along any lake breeze boundary
Overall
it should be a fairly nice day with highs in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s.
High pressure takes over Saturday night providing generally quite weather through the remainder of the this period
However
there still will be a slight chance (20% or less) of a shower across the Southern Tier Sunday afternoon. This is due to the influence of a passing shortwave to our south. Highs on Sunday will be mild with temperatures in the 70s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will provide dry weather through at least Tuesday
After that
chances for showers and storms increase as a shortwave trough nears the region by mid-week.
Temperatures will also steadily increase to above normal ahead of this trough through Wednesday.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIFR/IFR conditions will continue across portions of the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) through mid morning, then start to gradually improve to MVFR through midday or so. Otherwise the moist cool northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario will continue to produce low stratus and fog across just about all areas from the Finger Lakes westward with widespread IFR/LIFR/VLIFR conditions across the TAF sites south of Lake Ontario through mid to late morning for most sites here as well. These conditions will likely persist the longest at KROC.
Heading into today, conditions will only slowly improve through the morning hours. High pressure and drier air will finally start work in through the second half of the day, and in tandem with strong daytime heating start to erode stubborn low level moisture with conditions improving to VFR from west to east through the afternoon.
Mainly VFR flight conditions will then persist into the evening and overnight, although some valley fog may develop later tonight with localized IFR possible (KJHW).
Outlook...
Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...VFR.
MARINE
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the work week. Light winds will return today as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. A mainly offshore flow will then develop tonight and Friday with gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes in advance of the next system approaching from the west.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 712 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across our region today. While this will support mainly fair dry weather over our region, a few showers will still be possible well south and east of Rochester, especially east of Lake Ontario. A poorly organized frontal boundary will then promote some shower activity Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures and relatively humid conditions can be expected into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Broad mid level trough has shifted to our southeast and closed off just south of Long Island with the spin aloft easily identified on IR satellite this morning. Our area will remain rain free into the start of today, however areas of patchy dense fog will continue to cause areas of reduced visibility across portions western and northcentral NY lasting through the morning commute for which a SPS has been issued.
A weak area of surface high pressure will try to nose in from the northwest, while aloft a mid level ridge builds over western NY through the day. This will bring mainly dry weather to the region, although there may be a few showers across the far interior western Southern Tier/Finger Lakes, and particularly east of Lake Ontario, especially from around midday into the afternoon hours when enough diurnal instability may develop between the weak ridging aloft over western NY and the weak closed low just south of New England.
Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the higher terrain, even cooler along the lakeshores where an onshore flow is present. High pressure takes hold surface and aloft tonight which will provide dry and quiet weather with lows mainly in the low and mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough cutting through the upper Great Lakes will bring with it showers and some thunderstorms Friday through Friday night.
At this point...instability is still looking fairly limited Friday afternoon with advertised MUCAPE ranging between 300-700 J/kg and only modest 0-6km bulk shear values
That said
it is still possible that we could see a few stronger storms, especially on any subtle boundaries
Otherwise
it will be mild with temperatures generally found in the 70s, cooler near the lake shores.
The front will slowly eases across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night, with showers gradually diminishing from west to east. There may still be some lingering showers east of Lake Ontario early Saturday morning. A shortwave passing to our south in concert with diurnal heating may allow for a few showers to fire up again in the afternoon. This will especially be the case along any lake breeze boundary
Overall
it should be a fairly nice day with highs in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s.
High pressure takes over Saturday night providing generally quite weather through the remainder of the this period
However
there still will be a slight chance (20% or less) of a shower across the Southern Tier Sunday afternoon. This is due to the influence of a passing shortwave to our south. Highs on Sunday will be mild with temperatures in the 70s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will provide dry weather through at least Tuesday
After that
chances for showers and storms increase as a shortwave trough nears the region by mid-week.
Temperatures will also steadily increase to above normal ahead of this trough through Wednesday.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIFR/IFR conditions will continue across portions of the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) through mid morning, then start to gradually improve to MVFR through midday or so. Otherwise the moist cool northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario will continue to produce low stratus and fog across just about all areas from the Finger Lakes westward with widespread IFR/LIFR/VLIFR conditions across the TAF sites south of Lake Ontario through mid to late morning for most sites here as well. These conditions will likely persist the longest at KROC.
Heading into today, conditions will only slowly improve through the morning hours. High pressure and drier air will finally start work in through the second half of the day, and in tandem with strong daytime heating start to erode stubborn low level moisture with conditions improving to VFR from west to east through the afternoon.
Mainly VFR flight conditions will then persist into the evening and overnight, although some valley fog may develop later tonight with localized IFR possible (KJHW).
Outlook...
Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...VFR.
MARINE
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the work week. Light winds will return today as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. A mainly offshore flow will then develop tonight and Friday with gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes in advance of the next system approaching from the west.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45135 - Prince Edward Pt | 23 mi | 20 min | NE 7.8G | 53°F | 50°F | 0 ft | 29.85 | |
| 45215 | 42 mi | 24 min | 56°F | 56°F | ||||
| ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 45 mi | 50 min | 52°F | 29.85 | ||||
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 45 mi | 50 min | NNE 1.9G | 57°F | 29.80 | 57°F |
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Montague, NY,
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