Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Two Rivers, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Next quick moving shortwave trough and developing sfc low in ongoing zonal flow pattern is crossing the northern Rockies this morning. Winds are main concern as this moves through tonight.

Conditions are cold and mostly clear to start the day, but mid and high clouds will spread in steadily this morning. Perhaps enough lift/saturation in warm air advection this afternoon for sprinkles far north. Otherwise, any rain holds off until this evening into the early overnight, Very dry mid-levels ahead of the system lead to questions on westward extent of showers this evening. Main chances for showers will be over eastern WI, but amounts will be light with QPF under 0.10 inch. Low-level jet of 45-55kt down to 925mb leads to gusty wind potential tonight. Soundings look stable though with warm air advection aloft and there is now real shallow cold layer. Thus, think bulk of stronger winds/gusts will stay aloft. Decent pressure falls crossing northern WI will allow for 25-35 mph gusts at times this evening. Also could see brief gusty winds (40+ gusts) with any stronger showers moving through.
Instability is nil, so this is not a sure thing, but given depth and strength of low-level jet, not completely off the table either. Showers end after midnight over eastern WI and winds tailing off as low-level jet shifts east.

Northerly flow behind the system on Friday looks more convergent and cyclonic into northern WI. Expect scattered rain showers mixed with graupel or light snow at times afternoon into evening as temps aloft and sfc cool. Marginal sfc temps will keep any snow accumulations to trace amounts.

Attention on Saturday turns to sharp clipper shortwave that crashes ashore the Pacific Northwest late tonight. There are differences on how far north this system tracks, riding the periphery of strong upper trough steadily dropping south from vicinity of Hudson Bay. One camp (GFS, Canadian) keep primary baroclinic zone, frontogenesis farther south, while the other camp (ECMWF and especially the NAM) favor expansion of rain/snow later Saturday into eastern WI. NAM looks too wound up and too far north with 850mb low, so not leaning on that too much, yet. Current forecast has low-end likely pops east-central WI and far north-central on Saturday evening. Temps in the mid-upper 30s are marginal initially for only snow, unless rates kick up as the NAM shows.
NBM/LREF probabilities currently show 25-55% of seeing over 0.5 inch of snow, but not even 30% of seeing over an inch. Details could change, so stay tuned. Looks like there is good agreement that any rain/snow or snow tapers off after midnight, except over north-central WI as lake effect begins to start up in earnest.

Still appears better chance for accumulating snow of at least a few inches later in the weekend into early Monday will be in the lake effect belt of far north-central WI, mainly Vilas County.
Pops continue to increase with favorable setup as the deep trough settles overhead and cold cyclonic north-northwest flow ramps up.
Peak of this event will be Sunday and Sunday night as lake EQLs rise over 10kft and flow is favorable. By Monday, flow backs more NW and inversions begin to fall to less than 5kft, allowing the lake effect to start to wane. Probabilities from NBM point to over 50% chance of seeing 3+ inches of snow during this time over far northern Vilas (north of Manitowish Waters and Boulder Junction), dropping to around 10% over northern Oneida, well to the north of Rhinelander. Even using the NBM 75th percentile to gauge higher "ceiling" for this event, majority of 5+ inch amounts remain closer to Lake Superior. Away from the lake effect in north- central, does still look like a couple inches of snow could also occur locally in northern Door County toward Washington Island, with Sunday being the main time frame to see the snow there. Now appears flow is too west of north to bring much in way of lake effect to the rest of the Lake Michigan shoreline. Elsewhere on Sunday, spotty snow showers and flurries will occur at times.

Rest of the forecast into middle of the week has some low-end pops, but main focus for precipitation will be farther north of the area, along primary storm track.

Temperatures...The cold is coming, but not until this weekend.
We'll enjoy another couple days of near to slightly above normal temps through Friday. Bottom drops out this weekend with highs most locations on Saturday staying below 40 and readings Sunday and Monday staying in the 30s, and remaining below freezing north. Nights will be cold, with mins in the teens central and north-central WI starting on Saturday night. Temps rebound slightly starting on Tuesday.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR continues will continue this afternoon and evening with only a sprinkle or two possible over northern WI. Clouds will lower and thicken this evening, with a band of rain showers expected to move east across the area after 00z. Some brief MVFR conditions possible with the rain band, mainly at RHI/AUW/CWA late this evening into the early overnight, but will hold off any mention for now. As the flow turns to the northwest on Friday, lake effect clouds and showers will spread south across much of the region. The lowest clouds (MVFR/IFR), along with isolated to scattered rain showers will reside across north-central WI, especially in the later morning and afternoon.

South winds will gust to 20 kts this afternoon and into tonight.
A strong LLJ of 50-60 kts will move into the area this evening, producing LLWS starting between 00-02z. As the LLJ shifts east, the LLWS will come to an end by 12z Friday. West to northwest winds will gust to around 20 kts on Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 309 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Another day, another Small Craft Advisory. South winds increase late this afternoon, reaching toward 25-30 kts this evening. A few gale gusts may occur, but mostly this will be over the open waters. This is supported by local study that looked at model guidance during south wind gale events. The strong southerly winds will build waves to 7 to 10 feet for much of the Lake Michigan nearshore waters tonight into Friday morning. Winds shift to the northwest on Friday and will only slowly ease through the day.
Next period of small craft advisory conditions occurs Saturday night into Sunday as cold air charges south across Lake Michigan.
At this time, greatest risk of gales looks to set up over southern portion of the lake.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.