Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Two Rivers, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Thursday

Somewhat milder weather is expected today, as winds shift to the southwest. Skies will start out sunny, but clouds will increase from west to east in the afternoon as an upper level trough and associated surface front approach. Light snow should arrive in far northcentral Wisconsin before dusk, and across the remainder of the area during the evening hours.

Snowfall from this system should be less than an inch, but sufficient to produce slick roads and sidewalks. The snow will end overnight, though lake effect snow showers may continue into Thursday morning in Vilas county.

Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, though a steady wind will make it feel colder than it actually is. Highs will be just a few degrees below normal. Clouds and a gusty wind will produce steady or slowly rising temperatures tonight. Thursday will be the warmest day in the past week or so, with high temperatures five to ten degrees above normal.

Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Confidence is increasing in potential for dangerously cold wind chills early next week. Otherwise, snow chances remain limited to lake effect across the snowbelts given a general lack of impactful synoptic systems in the extended.

Lake effect snow chances... A quick shot of light lake effect snow will be possible across far northern Wisconsin Friday afternoon and evening as a clipper system passes to our north.
However, amounts should be held down to less than an inch during this time given dry FROPA and weak forcing. Post-frontal winds then veer to northwesterly, kicking off more persistent lake effect chances through early next week. Ensembles currently show around a 50 to 70 percent chance of northern Vilas county picking up an inch of light, fluffy snow through Sunday morning. Some long-range guidance shows a lake effect band over Lake Michigan making it into the Door Peninsula Sunday and Monday, although suspect that it will stay mostly offshore given westerly wind component.

Temperatures/wind chills... Main forecast concerns revolve around growing potential for dangerous cold late this week into early next week. An arctic high will drop down across the US/Canada border Sunday morning, ushering in 850 mb temperatures of -30 to -32C (~first percentile compared to climatology). Result will be high temperatures failing to hit zero degrees across central and north-central Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday. Likewise, probabilistic guidance currently shows an 80 to 90 percent chance that central and north-central Wisconsin will hit wind chills below -30 degrees early Monday and Tuesday mornings. Though early in the game, cold weather headlines appear likely during these timeframes; biggest question will be whether or not warnings will be necessary.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 537 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions and clear skies are expected through the early afternoon hours, then an upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds and a chance of light snow north of a RRL to IMT line towards dusk.

Light snow and MVFR conditions are expected across the region tonight. Flight conditions should improve Thursday, with VFR ceilings by afternoon in most areas.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.