Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 914 AM EDT Monday...No significant changes with this update. Valley fog is dissipating this morning, leaving behind a lot of mostly sunny skies for all but the Adirondacks and southern St Lawrence Valley, where clouds are more prevalent.
Still expect we could see a few showers pop up this afternoon, though they should be pretty isolated. Temperatures have already warmed close to 70F here in the Champlain Valley, while low to mid 60s are common elsewhere. Have made some adjustments to sky cover through this morning to match the latest satellite trends.
Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Main deviation from the previous forecast was to decrease shower chances this afternoon with high pressure beginning to slide eastward. Latest guidance keeps the ridge axis towards the North Country a little longer resulting in trimming chances back a bit. Still some isolated to scattered showers are possible mainly over northern New York this afternoon and evening. Also of note, high temperatures will trend warmer with southerly return flow bringing increasing dew points and SFC-850mb temperatures; highs in the mid/upper 70s to around 80 degrees are expected today and Tuesday while dew points increase from the 50s today to around 60 Tuesday. With the breakdown of the ridge and a quasi- stationary boundary draped over the Northeast, shower and thunderstorms chances increase Tuesday afternoon. The focus for convection will be more towards the St Lawrence Valley where a passing trough will help steepen mid level lapse rates adding a trigger to compliment any surface based instability. For southern Vermont and central Adirondacks, showers will be more pervasive as energy rides along the stationary boundary with isentropic lift being the primary mechanism for showers.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 337 AM EDT Monday...Continued warming and increasing humidity will be the main theme of the short term. Residual moisture advected from passing shortwaves earlier in the day Tuesday will keep shower chances through Tuesday night, with the best chances in south- central Vermont and along the spine of the Greens. PoPs are generally 30-50% through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Although chance to likely PoPs are forecasted, precipitation amounts are fairly light with only a few hundreths to a tenth expected.
Temperatures Tuesday night will only fall into the low to mid 60s which is nearly 10 degrees warmer than seasonal norms. Continued open wave energy riding over a subtle ridge on Wednesday will lead to additional diurnally driven showers, particularly in the Adirondacks and central Vermont. Models indicate weak instability development with temperatures reaching into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. However, thunderstorm chances areawide will be limited by low lapse mid-level lapse rates near 5C and weak shear. Any thunderstorms and showers that do develop will likely contain pockets of moderate rain with probabilities of PWATs greater than 1" near 70%. Furthermore, surface winds will be light which could lead to slow-moving storms which may enhance localized rainfall amounts.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 337 AM EDT Monday...Unsettled weather from a slow moving trough will keep the heat and humidity in the region for much of late week.
A subtle ridge will begin to break down Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front approaches the region. Temperatures Wednesday night will remain warm only falling into the mid to upper 60s. Heat and moisture will continue to stream into the region on Thursday with dewpoints reaching into the mid to upper 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s. Given the heat and moisture, and associated forcing from the cold front, instability and thunderstorm development is likely. The ECMWF and GFS deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with 2 potential rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. These thunderstorms could potentially be strong and contain heavy rain with shear around 40 kts, and probabilities of PWATs greater than 1.5" between 70-90% across northern Vermont and New York. These PWAT anomalies are 150-175% of normal. As a result of the potential for heavy rains, WPC has kept the entire region in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. One limiting factor to any potential strong thunderstorms is that cloud cover will be abundant ahead of the front which could keep a lid on any strong to severe storm development.

After the front crosses through Thursday afternoon, the boundary looks to stall briefly on Friday which will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the area. A brief respite from the heat and moisture is to follow the boundary Friday night into Saturday as most of the area should be on the north (cold) side of the boundary.
However, strong ridging looks to begin building in by the end of the weekend with temperatures returning to the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions persist except for MPV where some fog has formed. Otherwise, winds will be southerly after with increasing/lowering clouds after 18Z. A few showers are possible this afternoon, but mostly isolated and over terrain. SLK has the best chance of an afternoon shower, but still only scattered in coverage. AFter 06Z, CIGs likely lower to MVFR for most terminals with flow overrunning a quasistationary boundary draped south of Vermont.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.