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LMZ543 Expires:202311301100;;634181 Fzus53 Kgrb 300439 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1039 pm cst Wed nov 29 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-301100- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 1039 pm cst Wed nov 29 2023
Rest of the night..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering W in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday night..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Friday..NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 300442 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1042 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

-Patchy fog possible across portions of central to north-central WI tonight.

- Dry and seasonally warm weather is expected through the end of the work week.

- A system arriving late Saturday into Sunday to bring a chance for an area-wide mixed precipitation event.

- Unsettled pattern continues to start next week as a few disturbances pass over the area keeping a chance for a wintry mix Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

SHORT TERM...

Forecast Details:

Quiet and sunny conditions are expected across the region through the afternoon and evening today as quiet zonal flow continues into the overnight period.

Tonight, light southwesterly winds will help temperatures from bottoming out early overnight. That said, a fairly fast moving cold front will likely cross the region before sunrise, switching winds to the west by Thursday morning. As a result, brought in some cooler temperatures for the morning hours than the previous forecast and included a mention of fog for portions of central and north-central WI. Aside from the fog changes, no active weather was included as the cold front will likely lack any moisture to work with.

Thursday will be another fairly quiet day under mostly sunny skies for most. The shift to more northerly winds will once again bring in some clouds off of Lake Superior, but these will likely remain concentrated towards the Upper Peninsula border. High temperatures will be mainly in the 30s, but a few locations may reach into the low 40s.

LONG TERM...

Thursday night and Friday...
High pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will move from the southern Plains toward the mid-MS Valley. Mostly clear skies to start the night will give way to an increase in clouds overnight mainly over central/east-central WI.
Min temperatures to range from 10 to 15 degrees north-central WI, to the middle 20s near Lake MI. The low pressure slowly moves across the mid-MS Valley into central/southern sections of IL on Friday. High pressure is still over the northern half of the Great Lakes with a dry northeast wind over northeast WI.The northern edge of the precipitation shield will work into southeast WI, but have kept east-central WI dry. More sun north, more clouds east- central WI through the day with max temperatures in the lower 30s north-central WI, middle to upper 30s elsewhere.

Friday night and Saturday...
As the surface low continues to track northeast into the eastern Great Lakes region Friday night, the northern edge of precipitation may get close enough to parts of east-central WI to warrant a small chance pop. Otherwise, the main brunt of precipitation will remain to our south and east. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected with min temperatures to range from the middle teens far north, to the upper 20s near Lake MI. Lingering high pressure (now centered over Quebec) should keep Saturday dry, but the primary shortwave trough is progged to move into the central Plains in the afternoon. A modest push of WAA into WI could bring a small chance pop into central/east-central WI late in the day. Precipitation type could be a mix as max temperatures reach the upper 30s.

Saturday night and Sunday
Plenty of questions remain during this time frame with regards to the movement and timing of the shortwave trough. While the ECMWF and GFS are somewhat similar going into Saturday night by taking the trough into the western Great Lakes, the CMC lags behind. In addition, the GFS has more precipitation compared to other models.
In fact, the GFS solution would be pushing toward advisory snow going into Sunday morning. Too much uncertainty yet for any specifics, so have stayed with the NBM for now which brings chance pops for all of the forecast area with snow north, rain east- central and a mix in between. This chance for mixed precipitation will linger through at least Sunday morning if not through most of the afternoon depending on how fast the trough departs. Max temperatures Sunday to be in the middle 30s north, upper 30s to around 40 degrees south.

Sunday night and Monday...
A ridge of high pressure is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes by Monday, bringing a return of some sunshine with little change in temperatures. This would keep max temperatures on Monday in the lower to middle 30s north, mainly upper 30s south.

Monday night and Tuesday...
The dry weather may not last long as models send a quick-moving clipper system southeast through the Upper Midwest into southern sections of the Great Lakes. Models differ with the strength of the clipper, as well as upper support. For now, have followed the NBM and mention a chance of light snow mainly for Monday night.
Max temperatures for Tuesday to range from the lower 30s north- central, middle to upper 30s elsewhere.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...
Model uncertainty continues through Wednesday with the eastward movement of the upper trough and the eastern movement/strength of an upper ridge moving into the central CONUS. Snow chances could linger into Tuesday night if the slower trough exit is correct.
Snow chances could return Wednesday afternoon if the faster eastward upper ridge brings WAA to the area. Just too much spread at this time, so have settled with the blended solution which generally keeps the forecast area dry for now.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1042 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions will continue through the late evening hours, as just a few high clouds drift over the region. Prospects for fog tonight do not look great as winds at the top of the strengthening inversion will be 20+ kts, keeping things mixed, but will keep some MVFR fog at RHI/AUW/CWA as winds decrease a little for a time overnight as a weak cold front drops into the area. More likely would be a stratus deck overnight into early Thursday, but models split on if this will occur. NAM the most aggressive with the low clouds, with the SREF showing 50% chance of ceilings under 1000 ft and visibilities under 3 miles. Soundings trending a little drier, so will just go with a scattered deck in a TEMPO group as confidence remains low on if the lower clouds will develop.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue into Thursday, with some MVFR clouds developing during the day, especially over north central WI (RHI), along with some higher clouds continuing to spread across the region.

Low-end LLWS will be present at times tonight, with the strongest winds at 2000 ft located across northern WI this evening, then across central and east central WI overnight into early Thursday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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