Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Barre, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:37PM Monday July 13, 2020 9:59 AM EDT (13:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:40AMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barre city, VT
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location: 44.2, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 131129 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. Upper level trough will provide the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today. This feature will linger into Tuesday bringing with it several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday is shaping up to be the driest day of upcoming week and looks to offer seasonal temperatures as well. Another front crosses the area Thursday into Friday which will bring more chances for precipitation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 725 AM EDT Monday . No significant changes needed to the forecast. Just made a minor tweak to PoPs to reduce coverage this morning across most of VT as showers continue to dissipate. Best chances this morning will be across northeastern NY and northwestern VT. Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape.

Previous Discussion . The main theme for the day will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Convergence along the shores of Lake Ontario coupled with a weak surface low are sparking showers and thunderstorms across our far western NY zones early this morning. These showers/t- storms will slowly propagate eastward through the morning hours with chances for scattered showers mainly across northern NY and northwest VT this morning.

Little changes were made to the thinking for scattered convection this afternoon as a compact shortwave trough moves south out of Canada and a weak surface low passes to our south. Despite good upper level forcing, minimal moisture is associated with this feature which will limit areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Shear and CAPE profiles across northern NY & VT are not supportive of any development of severe storms. If these areas can destabilize sufficiently, an isolated stronger storm can't be ruled out with the main threat being briefly gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

As instability wanes after sunset the convective threat will diminish. Chances for showers will remain through the overnight hours as upper level trough remains directly overhead. Atlantic moisture will begin wrapping around from the northeast and anticipate areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms to increase on Tuesday. Again, not looking at anything strong or severe as lapse rates and shear are fairly poor. These showers will mainly provide beneficial rainfall to the area, which we desperately need. Generally speaking, most location should see about 0.25-0.40", with locally higher amounts in any convective elements that develop. Temperatures through the period will be comfortable with highs near normal today in the upper 70s/low 80s and below normal Tuesday (mid/upper 70s). Overnight lows remain slightly above average through Tuesday given widespread cloud cover and precipitation expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 420 AM EDT Monday . Mid-level trough is expected to progress eastward into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night, allowing any lingering rain showers to end across the North Country by late evening. Light wind conditions could lead to some patchy fog development late. Otherwise, looking at good radiational cooling conditions with lows mainly in the 50s, except locally 60F at BTV. Appears that mid-level ridging will build in from the west for Wednesday and Wednesday night with generally dry conditions expected across VT and nrn NY. With 850mb temperatures of +12 to +13C forecast by 00Z GFS, should support afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with mostly sunny conditions expected. Dewpoints will hold at moderate levels, with 2-m dewpoints primarily in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 420 AM EDT Monday . Highest precipitation chances during the long-term forecast period arrives late Thursday into Thursday night, in association with a shortwave trough embedded in WSWLY flow. Both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF are consistent with the timing and location of this feature, and associated sfc-850mb warm frontal structure. Have indicated a period of PoPs 50-65% during Thursday night with best low-level WAA and mid- level cyclonic vorticity advection. MUCAPE is limited, but marginal elevated instability is possible given potential 30-40kt LLJ at 3- 5kft level. As such, carried a slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm during the Thursday night period was well. The remainder of the extended forecast period trends very warm and increasingly humid toward next weekend. Appears valley high temperatures will reach the mid 80s on Friday, and then upper 80s to lower 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Large-scale forcing appears weak, so carried just 20-30% PoPs Sat/Sun for isolated diurnally driven convective potential, mainly tied to terrain forcing.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 12Z Tuesday . IFR/LIFR fog/ceilings which developed at valley sites overnight will dissipate towards 13z. MVFR ceilings may linger through 15z at KSLK, but after 15z all locations will be VFR through the remainder of the day. Showers and thunderstorm this afternoon will be scattered in nature so have included mention of VCSH/VCTS at all sites. As return Atlanitc moisture moves into the area, MVFR ceilings are possible overnight at all TAF sites outside the northern Champlain Valley. Winds will generally be 5 kt or less through the period.

Outlook .

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . LaRocca NEAR TERM . LaRocca SHORT TERM . Banacos LONG TERM . Banacos AVIATION . LaRocca


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45188 49 mi75 min SW 1.9 72°F 73°F1009 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F63°F96%1009.6 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT24 mi66 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds68°F64°F90%1008.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPV

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.