Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Barre, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:18PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:31 AM EDT (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barre city, VT
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location: 44.2, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 290245 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1045 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Deep low pressure over the central Plains will dominate the North Country's weather over the next several days as it slowly tracks through the Great Lakes and across the Northeast. Periods of rain will develop toward daybreak, and continue through Monday night with some higher elevation snow possible. Some showers linger into Tuesday, but drier conditions are generally forecast for the rest of the week along with near normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 1040 PM EDT Saturday . Mid-level overcast has overspread the North Country late this evening, and will generally help to keep temperatures well above freezing during the pre-dawn hours. Initial bands of radar reflectivity have generally weakened with prevailing dry low- level air mass in place across northern NY and VT. Have seen just a brief shower with a trace of rainfall at Springfield VT (KVSF) in sfc observations this evening. Also, noting that widespread showers and embedded tstms across the srn half of PA is likely robbing some of the nwd moisture advection for the overnight hours. Cut back on PoPs slightly, with bulk of precipitation developing with stronger large-scale forcing from W-E after sunrise Monday. Still a slight chance of a rain/snow/freezing rain mix across portions of nern VT. However, with low temps remaining generally at or above freezing, we anticipate any impacts from mixed pcpn to be negligible.

Previous Discussion . Very little overall change from the previous forecast idea as models remain in good consistency in regard to the synoptic setup with some minor differences in the more mesoscale details. Current satellite imagery tells the story showing deep low pressure over the central plains with a stream of rich GOMEX moisture riding northeast into the Ohio Valley then eastward through the mid-Atlantic along a warm frontal boundary. As the system slowly trudges northeast towards the Great Lakes tonight, the warm front will begin lifting into the northeast with widespread precipitation developing over the forecast area after midnight from southwest to northeast. Latest trends in the guidance is for the onset of precip to be most delayed across central/northeast VT until after sunrise, which is good because it will limit the threat of any freezing precipitation as overnight temperatures will fall close to freezing there. Elsewhere, with thick cloud cover and a strengthening south- southeasterly low level jet temps will initially fall into the mid 30s to low 40s, then begin rising during the pre- dawn areas supporting rain as the dominant ptype.

Widespread rain continues through mid-day Sunday but will taper to showers during the afternoon ahead an occluded front. During this period, the 925mb jet amplifies to 50-60kts over the downslope regions of the northern Greens and Adirondacks and though the lowest levels are fairly saturated, enough mixing appears likely to support winds gusting as high as 40 mph until the occlusion passes during the evening hours. In addition, ahead of the occlusion models are indicating weak surface instability of a couple hundred J/kg develops, mainly across northern New York which could support some isolated thunder. Have included a slight chance through sunset.

Finally for Sunday night, the occlusion shifts east of the region with a mid-level dry slot working in ahead of a cold front which will arrive Monday as the low pulls north of Lake Ontario. Any evening to early overnight showers should decrease in areal coverage for the night with portions of eastern Vermont and the Adirondacks possibly seeing some light snow and perhaps a dusting of accumulation as temps fall into the 30s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 341 PM EDT Saturday . The aforementioned low pressure system continues to plague the North Country on Monday as it tracks from north of Lake Ontario Monday morning eastward to the New England coastal waters Monday night. As the low passes overhead, showers will once again become widespread from mid-morning through the night with some snow mixing in at the higher elevations. Highs will be in the mid 40s, and lows in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 341 PM EDT Saturday . Much of next week is looking showery with near normal temperatures as upper-level troughiness will persist through the period. The associated cold pool aloft will keep a slight chance/low chance of rain/snow showers through at least Wednesday. Surface low pressure will remain to our south Wednesday- Thursday as it moves off the Mid- Atlantic coast and then stalls well south of Nova Scotia into the end of the week. The GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all indicate a band of precipitation stretching northward along an inverted trough, pushing westward from the Canadian Maritimes, but the exact timing and the amount of westward progression is in question. Both the CMC and ECMWF bring it into the North Country, while the GFS washes it out in New Hampshire while a cold front scoots in from the west. Given the model differences, have stayed with chance PoPs through the end of the week. Friday looks to be the warmest day as we finally get into ridging aloft and south flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Through 00Z Monday . Scattered rain showers will accompany lowering ceilings, but remaining VFR overnight. There is some question as to how quickly these showers will push into RUT, with a possibility of more prevailing type of showers at that site. The main event gets underway with MVFR ceilings at all locations after 12Z with rain, possibly lowering visibilities briefly to under 3 miles at times. Generally winds will increase in the afternoon once the main batch of rain moves through and rain becomes more showery. Expect southeast winds 10-20 kts, towards the light end at MSS and SLK and strong end at RUT, where gusts up to 30 kts can be expected. Additionally, low-level wind shear will develop thanks to a 60 kt jet not mixing down to the surface, although stronger surface winds at BTV will minimize the shear locally.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Lahiff NEAR TERM . Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM . Lahiff LONG TERM . Hastings AVIATION . Kutikoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast40°F25°F55%1021.6 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT24 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F30°F73%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPV

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N3--S6SW7CalmS4S7S3SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW7NW7NW8NW7W9W113NW8--NW6
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2 days agoS4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4SE7S4S10S9S11S10S11S7CalmS7S7S7Calm5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.