Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barre, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:10PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:00 AM EDT (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:22PMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barre city, VT
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location: 44.2, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 151011
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
611 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the mid atlantic will keep dry,
quiet weather in place today. Wednesday will see increasing
winds as a low pressure system approaches from the west.

Widespread rainfall associated with the system is expected
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Thursday and Friday
will be cooler with showers tapering off. High pressure returns
for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 610 am edt Tuesday... Forecast on track with only minor
edits needed to hourly temperature and sky forecast. Previous
discussion follows.

Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest today,
bringing one more dry and mostly sunny day before active weather
returns Monday. Will continue to see a few lake-enhanced clouds
downstream of lake ontario through the morning, but these
clouds will shift north of the area as flow becomes increasingly
southerly by this afternoon. By this afternoon, expect mainly
sunny skies with a few fair-weather CU clouds dotted around.

Temperatures will be noticeable cooler than yesterday, with
forecast highs generally in the mid 50s. The aforementioned high
pressure system will move offshore into the western atlantic
this evening, resulting in increasing southerly return flow.

High clouds will spread over the area from west to east ahead of
the next system. Lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 304 am edt Tuesday... Models continue to delay the onset of
precipitation across the north country on Wednesday. The surface low
tracking across the great lakes and eventually north of the
international border has trended weaker which weakens the synoptic
forcing associated with this system. Therefore, rainfall associated
with the isentropic lift ahead of the warm front looks less prolific
and have slightly lowered the QPF while delaying pops until the
afternoon hours on Wednesday. The secondary low that will develop
along the triple point Wednesday afternoon is also a little slower
to develop but that actually plays an important role in the
forecast. First off, the later development of the low will favor a
trajectory that will keep it west of benchmark which is a plus when
it comes to higher precipitation totals. Second, the cyclone is
expected to undergo extreme cyclogenesis and may even be considered
a bomb cyclone as surface pressure is expected to drop 24-28 mb
within a 24 hour period. It's been proven that cyclones undergoing
strong cyclogenesis tend to track slower until the cycle of rapid
intensification has completed. These two factors are setting up the
north country for a potential heavy rain event come Wednesday
afternoon.

As stated earlier, the precipitation associated with the warm front
midday on Wednesday looks less impressive than before. However,
rainfall rates are expected to increase heading into Wednesday night
and Thursday morning as a strong area of frontogenesis is expected
to move close to the north country. In addition, colder air
aloft will begin to filter into the region which will help
steepen our lapse rates and provide stronger ascent for the
ongoing rainfall. Because of this, we have added heavy rainfall
Wednesday night into Thursday morning for portions of the north
country that could be set up in combination of the two
aforementioned features. Rainfall totals will range from 1.5 to
2.5 inches across much of the forecast area with isolated 3+
inches possible within any banded precipitation that forms
Thursday morning. Chances for flooding still remain pretty low
with rivers near or at base flow. However, some localized small
stream or urban flooding is possible especially given all of the
leaf debris which could block drainage systems. For more info
on potential flooding impacts, see the hydro discussion below.

Winds on Wednesday and Thursday will also be something to focus on.

As the front begins to approach on Wednesday, we will see an
increasingly strong pressure gradient which will likely bring 15-30
mph winds with stronger winds up to 45 mph possible above 2000 ft.

However, the strongest winds will be on Thursday as we end up on the
back side of the surface low and decent isallobaric flow develops.

This coupled with colder air allowing us to mix a little deeper
should yield winds in the 20-40 mph range with the strongest winds
over vermont.

It won't be until Thursday night that we finally begin to see
showers tapering off from west to east as the stacked low pressure
system begins to drift eastward. It'ss till looking like we could
see some snowfall at summit level for the adirondacks but
accumulations look minor and will likely melt heading into the
weekend with above normal temperatures expected. Widespread fog
appears likely to develop Thursday night as skies begin to clear and
the flow weakens.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 304 am edt Tuesday... A pattern change is in store for Friday
with deep layer ridging developing throughout the day. This will
bring an end to any pesky lingering showers while also bringing
increasingly clearing skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal on Friday with highs only warming into the mid 40s to
mid 50s. As the deep layer ridging grows stronger over the weekend,
we will see some modest warm air advection which will bring
temperatures back up to a few degrees above normal with afternoon
highs in the lower to mid 60s by Sunday. Fog looks likely to form
Friday night and again Saturday night with weak flow and saturated
ground from the recent rainfall but will likely be localized to the
climatologically favorable locations of northern new york and east
of the green mountains. The next shot of rainfall returns to the
region Monday night into Tuesday morning with an impressively strong
trough to our west bringing a very moist air mass into the region.

This could be another decent rainfall event but given it's a week
away, we have time to iron out the details.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. SomeVFR level (generally 4000 to 8000 ft) stratocu
clouds drifting over the area. These clouds will diminish
Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in from the south. Weak
westerly northwesterly flow just off the surface will continue
through the night, preventing any widespread fog development.

However, could see some temporary br develop just before sunrise
in favorable valley locations, so have included mention in a
tempo group for kslk.

Surface winds will begin light westerly, then become back
through the forecast period becoming light southerly by 06z wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday:VFR. Chance ra.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Definite
ra, definite shra.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Definite shra.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. No sig wx.

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Hydrology
There is the possibility for urban and small stream flooding
Wednesday night through Thursday as moderate to heavy rainfall
will move through the north country. Looking at the meteorological
model ensemble river forecasts (mmefs), a few locations
including center rutland ausable forks could approach or exceed
minor flood stage with rainfall amounts ranging from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. Widespread river flooding is not anticipated with all
main stem rivers at base flow. Flashier rivers with quick
responses are most likely to approach bankful but the rainfall
will be spread out over a 30 hours period. Another fall concern
for heavy rain events is all the leaf debris as we are now
getting past peak color. Drainage may become less efficient as
storm trains may become partially obstructed. Stay tuned for
later forecasts to any updates to flooding concerns.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Duell
near term... Duell
short term... Clay
long term... Clay
aviation... Duell
hydrology... Clay


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi69 minS 310.00 miFair34°F33°F97%1020.7 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT24 mi66 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds33°F30°F92%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPV

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmS9SE8S11
G23
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G15
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N12
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W8NW10
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NW6NW4SW3NW3CalmS4SW4CalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoNW6NW8N9N7CalmNE4CalmCalmNE5E5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS43
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm34CalmCalmS6SE4S3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW5NW9NW8
G15
NW7NW6NW7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.