Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 7:45 PM   Moonset 5:35 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 230530 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 130 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday afternoon before rain moves back into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday with the chance for snow on Wednesday as precipitation tapers off. Only minor accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm temperatures ahead of the falling snow. Dry weather returns late this week into the weekend before the next round of rain late this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 123 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast is going smoothly this evening. Starting to see evidence of the south wind to come with Malone gusting to 20 mph and warming up to 42. These winds have not quite made it into the Champlain Valley yet, but once they do, then we'll stop cooling here, and then the wind will be last to reach eastern Vermont. Nothing really to tweak in the next few hours. Have a great night!

Previous Discussion...It remains deceptively cool this afternoon but at least temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s under sunny skies. Gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph will continue through the daylight hours with winds diminishing rapidly after sunset. During the overnight period, winds will begin to switch to the south/southwest and will become increasingly strong and gusty as we head into the daylight hours on Tuesday. Noticeably warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday with highs in the 60s across the North Country. Winds will also be noticeably stronger on Tuesday as we see stronger winds move in aloft. Deep afternoon mixing up to 8000 ft is expected given efficient diurnal heating which will allow wind gusts up to 35 mph to materialize. The strongest winds are expected from the Champlain Valley westward but winds will be gusty across the entire region. Rain chances will return to the forecast Tuesday night as a strong cold front approaches the region from the west. By daybreak on Wednesday, rain will most likely overspread the entire region leading to a wet morning commute.

Increased fire weather concerns will exist on Tuesday. Please see the fire weather discussion below for more details.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 302 PM EDT Monday...Very changeable weather expected on Wednesday as a strong cold front quickly crosses the region from northwest to southeast. Widespread rain will be ongoing out ahead of this boundary, which should lie poised very near or just west of the St Lawrence Valley Wednesday morning. The airmass behind the front is much cooler, and as temperatures plummet some 5-10 degrees or more as the front moves through, rain will mix with and change over to snow. However, precipitation will also rapidly be coming to an end during this transition as the incoming airmass will also be much drier, as evidenced by PWATS dropping to around 0.10 inch by Wednesday evening. So the period for snow will be short lived, and given how warm the ground will be, accumulations will be minimal, generally restricted to above 1000 ft. Highs will be early in the day for most locations, though the St Lawrence Valley may rebound back into the 40s in the afternoon under increasing sunshine. Winds will turn to the northwest as the front moves through, and with steep low-level lapse rates, they'll remain gusty to 30-35 mph, with locally higher gusts possible.

Precipitation comes to an end by sunset Wednesday night and skies will clear as high pressure settles over the region. Winds will abate overnight as well, and given the cold, dry airmass, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop through the 20s, and even teens, by Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 302 PM EDT Monday...The end of the work week will feature another round of dry conditions with high pressure slowly crossing the region. Thursday will be cool with highs only the mid 40s to mid 50s, though there will be abundant sunshine and light winds. The ridge shifts east on Friday, setting up south/southwest flow and a warmer, though continued sunny and dry, day. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend and heading into early next week as upper shortwaves rotate up and around the top of the ridge. Still some model differences in which of these disturbances is able to break down the ridge and/or how far south precipitation associated with each one is able to intrude into the dry air. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now, which gives 30-60% chances much of the latter part of this period, with highest chances north. One thing that is a little more certain - after a cool day on Thursday, we'll see a warming trend as the ridge axis sets up to our east. Current indications are highs will be well into the 60s by early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06Z Wednesday...Conditions the next 12 to 18 hours.
Skies are mostly clear with localized pockets of high clouds.
South winds will begin to pick up beyond 08z-10z. Until then, VAD profiles indicate 30-35 knot winds are occurring from 1000-2000 ft agl, which suggests models are under-doing wind speeds at that level. Using the general shape of where models depict the highest winds off the surface, this suggests LLWS for KMSS, KPBG, KBTV, and KEFK until surface winds pick up.
After 12z, we should see speeds increase to 7 to 14 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Winds diminish after 22z to 00z, but remain at 5 to 10 knots sustained. Precipitation will begin to approach from the west about 00z to 03z and slowly spread east beyond 06z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 302 PM EDT Monday...Dry weather is expected to continue across the region through Tuesday afternoon with strong high pressure situated across the region. We have seen RH values dip into the upper teens to mid 20s this afternoon with winds gusting as high as 25 mph at times. For tomorrow, the RH values are expected to be slightly higher during the afternoon hours with RH values ranging from 24% to 32% but winds will be gusting as high as 35 mph from the south. Based on our local red flag criteria, we are expected to hit red flag conditions (25+ mph winds and RH below 30%) for much of the afternoon tomorrow.
However, fuels remain sufficiently moist to prohibit the issuance of a red flag warning. Nevertheless, fine fuels such as leaf litter and twigs are sufficiently dry to start a few brush fires. As such, open burning is not encouraged for the remainder of today or tomorrow. In addition, the state of New York has a burn ban in place through May 14th.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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