Friday, July19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Barre, VT

Version 3.4
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:33PM Friday July 19, 2019 12:13 AM EDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 7:51AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barre city, VT
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location: 44.2, -72.5     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 182341
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
741 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

An active period of weather is expected across the north
country beginning Friday through Sunday. Humidity will be
increasing tonight with hot and humid conditions expected on
Friday and Saturday. Chances for thunderstorms exist Friday
through Sunday. More seasonable weather returns by early next

Near term through Friday night
As of 732 pm edt Thursday... Generally quiet weather expected
tonight. There is a modified maritime layer wrapping
anticyclonically around the sfc ridge in the gulf of maine,
which has resulted in mostly cloudy conditions across portions
of s-central and central ERN vt this evening. As sfc-850mb flow
gradually veers into the southwest, should see these clouds
dissipate toward daybreak on Friday. Adjusted low temperatures
upward across central ERN vt tonight to account for reduced
radiative cooling with cloudiness in place. Lows generally in
the lower 60s across ERN vt, and mid-upper 60s elsewhere across
the north country.

Previous discussion... Ridge of surface high pressure will slide
eastward overnight, and a warm front will push into our area
from the west. Warm and moist airmass slides into the north
country, remaining through Friday night. Southerly flow will be
in place and a moist air mass will move into the region.

Overnight minimum temperatures will range from the upper 50s in
our eastern zones to upper 60s in the saint lawrence valley.

Pwats will be above 1.5", though highest pwat air reminds south
of our region. Shortwave energy and some surface based
instability will increase chances for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms on Friday. Models indicate decaying convection
will enter our western northern new york zones by Friday
morning. The chance for afternoon thunderstorms still looks
possible with plenty of CAPE (~1500-2000 j kg) and moisture,
however shear is marginal and mid-level cap and dry air will
limit both vertical and areal extent of storms. Maximum
temperatures on Friday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s and
produce heat indices above 95 in the champlain and saint
lawrence valleys especially. A heat advisory is in place for
these areas beginning at noon. Friday night will remain pretty
mild, and any afternoon convection that develops will be dying
down. Overnight minimum temperatures will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 315 pm edt Thursday... The big story will be the heat and
humidity levels on Saturday with heat index "feel like"
temperatures near 100 degrees in the valleys.

Large scale pattern shows strong mid upper level ridge across
the SE CONUS with axis of very warm temps extending from the
ohio valley into the NE conus. Moderate 925mb to 850mb flow of
20 to 30 knots will help advect very warm and humidity
conditions into our region with 925mb temps btwn 26-28c on sat.

Adding 8-10c to these values supports highs upper 80s to mid 90s
most locations with a few spot upper 90s lower ct river valley
and central cpv. These values combined with dwpts in the upper
60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the 96 to
104 degree range, solid advisory criteria for most locations.

The next concern will be chances for afternoon evening showers
and storms. There is plenty of uncertainty with regards to
potential convection, as 12z guidances still has a large spread.

Nam continues to trend north with ridge roller MCS on sat
aftn evening, while GFS ecwmf and cmc show leftover convective
vort riding near the international border. This will interact
with plenty of instability with CAPE values in the 2500 to 3500
j kg, while best 0 to 6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots hovers near
the border. These parameters would support organized convection,
however when viewing the NAM sounding data, our atmosphere is
strongly capped due to warm nose btwn 850-750mb with deep dry
layer present and without the forcing from upstream convective
vort, the overall threat of convection would be minimal. In
addition, its interesting the potential impacts convection has
and pushing cooler air south on Sunday. GFS shows axis of
warmest 925mb to 850mb air mainly south of our CWA with
northwest flow, while NAM continues to place most of our fa in
the warm sector with another day of heat and humidity. Based on
uncertainty, especially with regards to convection, which is
typical given upstream activity will continue to mention chc
pops for northern ny into northern vt on Sat aft evening. No
mention of enhanced wording, given the uncertainty. Either way,
Saturday night lows warm and muggy with lows mainly in the upper
60s to mid 70s, but if front is slower lows in the cpv could
hold in the upper 70s near the uhi.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 315 pm edt Thursday... The uncertainty on heat humidity
and potential for convection increases on Sunday, given the
large amount of spread in guidance, especially with regards to
position of boundary and degree of heating instability. Have
followed superblend guidance closely which supports l m 90s
southeast CWA near vsf to l m 80s northwest area dacks.

Additional heat advisories maybe needed for portions of the cpv
and ct river valley on Sunday. The NAM solution would support a
threat for strong to severe storms on Sunday now, while GFS is
much further suppressed with activity. For now will continue to
mention chc pops and add additional details as event becomes
closer. Neither Sat or Sun should be complete wash outs, but
indoor plans with ac are probably a better choice, given the
heat. Much cooler and drier air advects into the north country
for early next week. Guidance in decent agreement with overall
large scale pattern change, but still some uncertainty on
evolution timing of development of mid upper level trof across
the great lakes NE conus. The development of trof and associated
1018mb high pres will suppress heat humidity to our south,
along with best instability through early next week. Progged
925mb temps range btwn 16-18c on Mon tues, but warm to near 20c
by weds. These values support highs near normal with readings in
the mid 70s to mid 80s most locations and lows generally in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Timing embedded vorts and associated
ribbons of enhanced moisture in the flow aloft becomes
increasingly more difficult in days 4 thru 7, so have trimmed
back pops with just isolated scattered wording toward mid week.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions expected throughout the
period. Maritime cloudiness in central eastern vt will maintain
periods of sct-bkn040-050 conditions at krut and kmpv overnight.

Light sely winds generally expected overnight, gradually
becoming s-sw during the daylight hours on Friday. Should see
gusts 18-20kt at times at btv 15-23z Friday. There is a slight
chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon, but have not
included in any tafs ATTM owing to limited coverage potential.


Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Sunday:VFR. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Sunday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Monday:VFR. No sig wx.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for vtz003-004-

Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for vtz001-

Ny... Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for nyz029>031-

Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for

Synopsis... Neiles
near term... Banacos neiles
short term... Taber
long term... Taber
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45188 49 mi73 min S 5.8 71°F 75°F1012.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi22 minno data10.00 miFair68°F63°F84%1013.5 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT24 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair64°F63°F96%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW4CalmSE3CalmS8S3S7S7S8SW7SW4S6S4S7S6SE3S5--
1 day agoCalmS5S8S8S3--4CalmCalmW4CalmW5W4SW6SW5S5NW3NW11NW3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3S7S126S5S5S9S11S11S6S7S7S3CalmSW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.