NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 132 AM EDT Friday...Thin high clouds are hanging on, and temperatures are steadily declining. VADs and Whiteface observations indicate 20 to 30 mph winds aloft, and that is slowly the development of fog. Indications are that this will abate before dawn. All else is on track for an otherwise quiet night.

Excerpt of previous discussion Models continue to depict a back door cold front backing into our area from the east on Friday, and some spot showers are possible with this feature. Have mainly only mentioned a slight chance for showers at this time, as the current environment is very dry. Any showers that develop will die down around sunset. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80. Friday night will be another quiet one with valley fog possible once again as lows dip into the 50s areawide with some upper 40s in the colder spots.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...The influence of an off-shore low will bring the potential for some isolated to scattered showers during the day Saturday, primarily across southern Vermont and along the spine of the Green Mountains. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected to prevail. Temperatures look to trend back towards seasonable normals, with high temperatures generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler in comparison to previous nights, generally in the upper 40s into the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Dry weather will persist for the second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week as the region remains under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure. Temperatures will be neat seasonal normals, and feel quite fall-like after this recent warmth, with high temperatures generally in the 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler as well, mainly in the 40s and low 50s.

Heading into the middle of next week, chances of measurable precipitation return to the region as a upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes region, although there is still some uncertainty as to how quickly the upper level ridge will break down. Given the uncertainty of these features, continued the idea of slight chance to chances of showers from the previous forecast. High temperatures by mid-week will continue to be rather seasonable, mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z Saturday... Mainly VFR, with less than 1/4SM fog noted at KEFK. Fog may bounce around due to 20 to 25 knot winds around 1500-3000 ft agl, but these will abate and then fog should settle in as has been the case the last several nights.
Climate statistics for KEFK indicate a 70 to 80 percent of VLIFR conditions for at least 3 hours based on present conditions. So have prevailing 1/2SM with a TEMPO showing some possible breaks. Otherwise, fog prone sites should see patches between 07z and 09z, and then more prevailing fog 09z to 13z.
A backdoor front will slide southwest around 15z-21z. A spot shower is possible, but less than 20 percent probability of occurrence mostly over Vermont terminals. There will be a preference for east to northeast winds, but terrain upslope flow in the afternoon may result in some variability in direction.
Wind speeds will generally be 4 to 8 knots, trending light and variable after 00z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.