Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barre, VT

KEY MESSAGES
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

1. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories continue through Tuesday as additional rounds of gusty winds will be possible as a strong cold front pushes through the region. Isolated to scattered outages are possible.

2. Additional rain will move across the region this evening.
River rises are expected, but flooding is not expected at this time.

3. Sharply colder temperatures will arrive tonight, with light snowfall accumulations possible. Slick travel conditions will be possible tomorrow morning. Some lake effect snow will be possible across northern New York during the day tomorrow.

4. Temperatures moderate back toward seasonal normals for late week, with a few chances for rain/snow showers.

DISCUSSION
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a period of gusty winds this morning, there has been a brief lull this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. As this strong cold front moves through the region this evening, additional rounds of strong winds are expected with a strong low level jet overhead. There is still some uncertainty as to how efficiently the winds will be able to mix down to the surface due to precipitation, but some of the latest guidance continues to support advisory criteria across Vermont ahead of this feature.

Behind the front, enhanced mixing will result in better mixing of the 50-55 knots southwest to west flow behind the strong cold front.
Widespread gusts of 35-50 mph are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. After noon, the strongest low-level winds will likely be south of the area and the intensity of the LLJ will begin to decrease. Given the intervals of gusts, changing wind direction on Tuesday, and the soggy soils at lower elevations, scattered power outages appears likely, especially for northern slopes of the Adirondacks. The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories across the region currently remain in effect through tomorrow morning given the additional rounds of strong winds expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After the first round of precipitation this morning, a pronounced dry slot has kept the region relatively dry this afternoon. As a strong cold front approaches the region, precipitation is expected to develop once again. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible along the front due to the strength of forcing, but the fast moving nature of the system will limit overall liquid precipitation amounts, since precipitation will switch over to snowfall for a brief period tonight. In general, overall precipitation amounts expected with this feature will generally be between 0.5 and 1.0 inches, with 0.25 to 0.5 inches expected with the upcoming round of precipitation. These amounts will lead to river rises on local rivers, but no flooding is anticipated, especially with limited snowmelt expected. The Northeast River Forecast Center forecasts currently keep all area rivers below flood stage, with only some locations on the Otter Creek, Raquette and Ausable expected to reach bankful. While most rivers have already lost their ice, some locations in far northern New York and eastern Vermont may need to be monitored for any ice movement on waterways where ice still remains.

KEY MESSAGE 3: After temperatures warming into the 50s and 60s this afternoon, with some spots in the St. Lawrence Valley nearing 70, temperatures are expected to sharply drop behind the cold front moving through this evening. Anywhere between 20-30 degree drops are expected, but may just miss the flash freeze component by not quite getting to below freezing with the drop. Steadily cooling temperatures will continue though, and conditions will largely be below freezing by Tuesday morning. With these colder temperatures, rain will transition over to snow overnight into the early morning hours. A brief period of wintry mix will be possible during the initial transition, but any sleet or freezing rain will be minor if it does occur. Total snowfall amounts on the backside of the front will generally be 1 to 2 inches across northern New York and less than an inch across most of Vermont, with some locally higher possible in the spine of the Green Mountains. Depending on the level of drying from strong winds, there could be some black ice or some slick roads due to snow on Tuesday morning, making for potentially hazardous travel. In addition to the snow associated with the cold front, some lake effect snow looks to develop during the day on Tuesday as cold air rushes in, bringing some additional accumulations to northern New York. Guidance suggests that the band should be quite narrow, with the residence time in our forecast area rather brief before shifting southward. For St. Lawrence County, lake effect snow will probably add about another 1-3" in far southern areas before exiting the region.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Although Wednesday will be cold, temperatures should gradually increase through the end of the week, with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s by the weekend. High pressure will keep us dry for mid week, but then shower chances increase as a couple of upper shortwave troughs scoot through the nearly zonal flow aloft. There's still some uncertainty with the timing of these systems, so have stayed close to WPC's forecast for Wednesday and beyond.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Tuesday...Multiple aviation hazards expected through much of this TAF period. Although winds have been slow to materialize at some terminals this afternoon, do anticipate gusty winds and LLWS to be the main threats through the entire 24 hour period. South winds of 10 to 20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt will continue this afternoon into the evening. Then a strong cold front will turn winds to the W/SW roughly between 05z- 08z, remaining gusty to 35 kt. Expect all terminals to see these gusty winds once the front moves through, even those sites that haven't been quite so breezy as previously anticipated.

Widespread rain showers will move into the region later today, mainly after 22z, spreading northeastward through the evening hours. Generally anticipate visibility 3-5SM in rain, which may be heavy at times. Temperatures fall sharply overnight with the cold frontal passage. Rain will transition to snow, with some sleet and/or freezing rain briefly mixing in during the transition. Snow will wind down quickly by daybreak Tuesday, but a couple of lake effect streamers may bring additional snow to mainly KSLK and perhaps KMSS during the day Tuesday. Visibility 2-4SM in any snow. Ceilings will remain mainly MVFR at 1200-2800 ft through the period, though improving to VFR at the valley locations after 12z Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA.

CLIMATE
A daily record high temperatures and calendar day precipitation total are possible at KMSS (Massena, NY) on March 16th. The present forecast of 67 would beat the previous record of 65 set just last year. Consensus forecast for KMSS is about 0.50-0.75", which would beat 0.44" set in 1994.

EQUIPMENT
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ026-028-029-035- 087.
High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ027-030-031- 034.