Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:12AM||Sunset 4:14PM||Friday December 6, 2019 3:27 PM EST (20:27 UTC)||Moonrise 2:41PM||Moonset 2:06AM||Illumination 74%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barre, VTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 062022 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 322 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019
SYNOPSIS. Widespread snow will taper off as clipper system moves east Friday night. A few flurries will remain possible into Saturday with snow showers across higher summits. Mainly dry and colder weather arrives in the wake of this system Saturday afternoon before temperatures rebound nicely by this coming Sunday. The milder trend continues into early next week with increasing chances for rainfall by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Cold conditions return for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 314 PM EST Friday . Clipper system to our south continues to produce snow across the region. A band of moderate to heavy snow has developed along a good deformation band and a weakening FGEN line. Currently positioned near Middlebury, this feature will sag south and slowly weaken.
Elsewhere, widespread snow should continue for the next several hours before gradually tapering off after 6 PM. Snow amounts look to be on track with the dusting to 2 inches north and 3-6" in Rutland/Windsor County and perhaps parts of southern Addison County. Steady snow quickly shuts off once the fast moving clipper pushes offshore after 8 PM. Afterwards, mostly elevated snow showers are expected. Down in the upslope valleys, moisture in the dendritic growth zone should remain within a blocked flow regime. Dry, near- surface air should keep it limited to flurries over northwest facing slopes with higher summits picking up another half inch to inch. Cold air will begin advecting into the region overnight, and we should see temps fall into the upper single digits to lower teens.
For Saturday, upslope flurries and mountain snow showers continue, but will continue to decay, especially as flow becomes unblocked during the afternoon hours and the backside of an upper trough swings east later Saturday evening. Lower thickness advection under the trough will keep temps in the upper teens to mid 20s for the afternoon with cold conditions overnight. We will start to pick up a bit of southerly winds from increasing pressure gradients as surface high pressure quickly shifts east. Expect single digits to near 10 for lows on Saturday night.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 321 PM EST Friday . 1034mb high pres shifts off the southern New England Coast on Sunday as 925mb to 850mb low level jet of 45 to 50 knots develops and strong llvl waa occurs. Soundings indicating breezy conditions developing across northern NY into the CPV, where channeled flow will enhance the gusty winds. Localized gusts to 35 to 40 mph is possible. Meanwhile, ribbon of better 850 to 500mb rh will be lifting from southwest to northeast, along with some weak embedded 5h energy, which will be supported by waa lift, produce a period of light precip. Mainly rain showers anticipated in the slv/cpv, but cold bl temps and ground temps will support mention of some pockets of freezing rain, especially east of the Greens. Any ice accumulation will be light, but some slippery travel is expected on Sunday Night into early Monday. Temps warm into the mid 20s to mid 30s aft a cold start on Sunday and continue to warm overnight Sunday into Monday, with southerly winds and precip/cloud. Lows generally in the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s with temps warming overnight with highs upper 30s to upper 40s on Monday. The best forcing associated with weak boundary and deep moisture will be located over our western cwa on Monday, while brisk southwest flow of 50 knots at 850mb will limit qpf/pops across the cpv. Have tried to show enhanced pops/qpf over the High Peaks/northern VT. Breezy to gusty winds will continue, especially across the summits and aligned south to north valleys on Monday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 321 PM EST Friday . Long wave pattern shows mid/upper level ridge across the eastern Conus breaking down as potent short wave trof deepens over the central Great Lakes. Sfc low pres will track from the Ohio Valley into the northern Great Lakes on Monday Night into Tuesday, while a sharp cold front crosses our fa. The combination of strong llvl convergence, good moisture advection with pws around 0.75" and favorable dynamics with 5h energy/trof will produce a period of showers associated with fropa late Monday Night into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts look to range from 0.25 to 0.75 with localized near 1.0 totals possible over the high peaks. Once again, downslope southwest winds of up to 50 knots will produce the cpv shadowing in the qpf fields.
Temps will be following a non diurnal trend, with steady or rising temps on Monday Night ahead of fropa, while sharp boundary results in falling temps during the aftn on Tuesday, especially northern NY/higher trrn. The potential for a flash freeze will need to be watched during this time period as temps will fall sharply behind boundary, but amount of leftover moisture and how quickly pavement cools/drys is very much uncertain attm. Progged 925mb temps warm 6 to 8c ahead of boundary by 12z Tues, before dropping back to -4c to -6c by 00z Weds, supporting potential flash freeze. Thinking lows Monday Night m/u 30s nek to mid 40s cpv, with highs tues mid 40s to lower 50s, before dropping back toward freezing during the aftn hours, except mid 20s dacks. Any linger rain showers will change back to snow showers behind boundary, but limited moisture and lift will result in minimal accumulation.
Secondary boundary with additional s/w energy and moisture arrive acrs our cwa on Weds. This combined with some lake enhanced moisture, thinking snow showers and potential snow squalls are possible. Have continued with high chc/low likely pops with highs mainly in the upper teens to mid/upper 20s. 1040mb high pres builds back into our cwa on Thurs into Friday with drier but chilly weather anticipated. Highs mainly mid teens to mid 20s with lows single digits to near 10f, but much colder if clear skies and light winds can develop during this time period.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Through 18Z Saturday . A trend towards IFR/MVFR with local LIFR will take place over the next several hours with KBTV and KMPV the last to feel impacts of a quick moving clipper. Ceilings 800-2500ft agl and visibilities of 3/4SM - 4SM will be common in snow. After 22Z, expect conditions to gradually improve from northwest to southeast. Snow should be over at all sites by 03Z. A scattered to broken deck around 2500-3500ft agl will remain overnight. Winds have been light and variable, though we should see a preference for north to northwest winds through 03Z at 5 to 10 knots. After 03Z, winds become northwest to west at 5 knots.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Likely FZRA. Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . Haynes NEAR TERM . Haynes SHORT TERM . Taber LONG TERM . Taber AVIATION . Haynes
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|Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT||4 mi||37 min||S 5||1.75 mi||Light Snow||26°F||21°F||81%||1014.7 hPa|
|Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT||24 mi||34 min||N 0||2.00 mi||Light Snow Fog/Mist||26°F||21°F||84%||1014.1 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KMPV
Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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