Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Randolph, ME

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
An upper low is centered over the Canadian Maritimes early this morning, and this will slowly move eastward today, allowing a mid-level ridge to build into the region. More subsidence with the ridge moving in and overall drier air will give mostly sunny skies south of the mountains, but the northwest upslope flow will keep skies mostly cloudy in the mountains through at least this morning before these start to erode this afternoon.

It will be breezy again with winds picking back up this morning with gusts of 20-30 mph through early afternoon based on forecast soundings, but these will start relaxing by mid-late afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Mixing to around 850 mb supports highs reaching the low-mid 60s for southern areas and upper 50s to lower 60s farther north.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure sinks to the south this evening and tonight as a vigorous shortwave moves across Quebec that will push a cold front quickly across New England Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front, winds become more southwesterly tonight which will help keep temperatures a little milder as well as the increasing cloud cover. This front will also bring a chance of showers with it overnight into early Saturday morning, primarily across northern areas. Moisture and lift are not very impressive with this system, so amounts are expected to be light with amounts ranging from up to a couple of tenths of an inch toward the International Border to a few hundredths of an inch as far south as central NH and the foothills of Maine.
Temperatures overnight are expected to remain mostly in the 40s, but a few spots in SE NH may stay in the low 50s.

The cold front clears the region Saturday morning, and northwest winds will quickly become gusty behind it (possibly even in the pre-dawn hours across northern and western areas).
Based on forecast soundings, gusts of 30-35 mph look like a good bet through the morning and afternoon, and it wouldn't shock me for a couple to get close to 40 mph. With winds becoming northwesterly, there will likely be a period of mostly cloudy skies and a few showers in the mountains through at least the morning, and if enough moisture is retained into the afternoon, there could be a couple of showers and a bit more cloud cover downwind of the mountains as Froude numbers do become quite high. However, the forecast is currently calling for a mostly sunny day south of the mountains as it looks like drying behind the front will occur quickly enough. Temperatures look fairly similar to those of today except a bit cooler across northern areas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Northwesterly breezes Saturday night will prevent the region from decoupling. Nevertheless, plenty of cold air remains in place to bring readings to below freezing in the north and 30s in the south with some patchy frost where the winds do eventually become limited late at night.

12Z models and ensemble solutions remain in modestly good agreement bringing an area of low pressure across the region Sunday. This will bring showers to the region or a period of cold rains that will last into Monday. Plenty of cold air as well as the effects of wet bulbing will allow for the precipitation to mix with snow showers in the north and higher terrain Monday night into Tuesday as upslope conditions interact with the passage of an upper level trough.

Gusty winds will continue Wednesday before the gradient diminished by Thursday under dry conditions. Temperatures will run seasonably chilly for much of the week which has not been the case for some time. In fact, if the Forest City of Portland has not reported a freeze as of October 10th. We are approaching our top ten lists of latest freezes ever. Number one would be October 18th and it will be close during a couple nights this week with mid 30s forecast for overnight lows by Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...Mainly VFR. Breezy northwest winds are expected to gust between 20-25 kt this morning into mid afternoon before relaxing. A cold front brings increasing shower chances tonight, mainly for HIE, but possibly as far south as LEB and AUG. The front passes through Saturday morning, and northwest winds will be gusty again, possibly up to 30 kt during the day Saturday.
HIE could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings late tonight and into Saturday morning as the northwest winds kick in. With winds aloft increasing this evening/tonight, LLWS will need to be included in many of the TAFs.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Saturday night into early Sunday before low pressure brings widespread rain showers and IFR restrictions later in the day Sunday and into Monday.

MARINE
Short Term...Lastest guidance has wind gusts to around 25 kt holding on through mid-late morning, and the SCA has been extended by a few hours to account for this. After that, conditions improve marginally this afternoon before southwest winds pick back up ahead of another cold front that will quickly push across the waters Saturday morning. Winds will likely reach SCA levels ahead of the front this evening and tonight, and will these will probably continue into Saturday over portions of the waters as winds turn northwesterly behind the front.

Long Term...Winds fall below SCA levels Saturday night and through early Sunday, but an approaching low pressure system could again bring SCA conditions later Sunday through Monday.
Behind this system, brisk west to southwest winds could remain above SCA level through the middle of next week.



GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ150>152.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ153- 154.