Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stronach, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 257 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Deep troughing continues to build southeast across the region, with attendant surface low working itself east into western Quebec. Lake aggregate reinforced surface trough extends back west from this low into central Lake Superior...placing northern Michigan under a west to slightly southwest boundary layer flow regime. Cold air advection wrapping around this low kicking off lake snows into those favored west flow areas of northwest lower Michgian...with most organized Lake Superior snows targeting areas north of the SOO.

Cold air advection only increases with time as embedded shortwave trough works its way across the Northwoods tonight. Lake aggregate troughing will drop south behind this departing wave on Tuesday, with the combination of both keeping lake processes going through the entirety of the short term period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing lake snows and attendant amounts/headline considerations right through Tuesday.

Details:

Expect lake snows to organize and increase in intensity with time tonight as both synoptic scale moisture contribution and convective cloud depths increase. Convective layer flow regime remains a west one off northern Lake Michgian...targeting the M-68 to M-32 corridor for best snows. Expect lake snows of lesser intensity elsewhere across northwest lower Michigan. A bit more complicated scenario off Lake Superior, with the intial flow regime favoring Ontario for better snows. Passage of lake aggregate trough will likely be accompanied by a burst of snow, with quickly veering post-trough winds shunting best snows into central Upper Michigan toward Tuesday morning.

Lake aggregate troughing will continue to slide south, veering winds to north-northwest by later Tuesday afternoon across the area. Lake snows will realign accordingly...focusing best snows to areas well west of Interstate 75 across northwest lower Michigan. Lake parameters remain healthy with good lift through the favored dendritic growth layer, supporting pockets of inch per hour snowfall rates within better banding. Shifting winds will keep duration of heavier snows limited at any one location.

Upshot to the above...still looking at several additional inches of snow across northwest lower Michigan...with again the focus for better snows shifting south with time on Tuesday. Much less accumulation across eastern upper Michigan...with heavier snows remaining well to their west by later tonight and through the day Tuesday. Inherited advisories will remain, with some likely south extension to those advisories needed for Tuesday.

Definitely some chilly weather, but nothing extreme, with lows tonight in the single digits and lower teens...and highs Tuesday in the teens to middle 20s. Of course, gusty winds will make it feel several degrees colder (wind chills likely a few degrees below zero tonight).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 257 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Closed low will be slowly departing eastward through Ontario and Quebec at period onset, resulting in 500mb height rises across the Great Lakes. A secondary wave digging through central Canada will further reinforce shortwave ridging ahead of it through the day Wednesday, likely suppressing much of the lake effect activity that lingers into Tuesday night. The wave and associated surface low pressure pass through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next round of widespread snowfall to the region. This system will not come with a reinforcing shot of colder air... as we likely warm / moist advect in the low levels once the system passes, which likely leaves us in a drizzly / stratus regime through the rest of Thursday into Thursday night. Warmer temperatures, possibly above freezing, build by Friday as another system approaches from the west. This more southerly flow will carry into later Friday before another clipper, this time a more northerly track (hence the milder airmass), passes through with its associated cold frontal boundary that sets the stage for the eventual intrusion of a deep arctic airmass... potentially the coldest air of the season (to date) as we head into next week... accompanied by more lake effect snowfall.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Lake Effect Snow Tapering Tuesday Night into Wednesday: Ongoing true NW flow lake effect snows will be on a downward trend later Tuesday night as ridging overhead and drier air aloft creates an increasingly hostile environment for lake effect snow band maintenance. Regardless, still anticipating the core of the NW flow belts to continue their lake effect snows... namely a dominant band across that Antrim / Kalkaska region, leaking SE into Crawford and far NW Roscommon. Lesser organized lake effect snows will be found elsewhere. Later Tuesday night, this activity should begin to be really suppressed due to the ridging / drying aloft. Overall, perhaps an additional 2-4" of snowfall in Antrim and Kalkaska in that dominant band, with 2" or less elsewhere in the snowbelts. Some lighter / less organized lake effect snow showers likely carry into the day Wednesday, pivoting around to focus more on the Emmet / Cheboygan / Straits area with time as winds shift more SW by Wednesday evening.

Wednesday night Clipper and Late Thursday Precip: Moisture starved clipper system will make its way through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Aforementioned low intensity lake snows in the SW flow belt may get a jolt and become briefly better organized as synoptic moisture increases, and lake enhancement commences. This would be a relatively short window, but could produce some better intensity snows. Overall, this does not look like an overly impressive snow producer, generally 1-3" of snowfall through midday Thursday, with the highest amounts focused along / west of I-75...
potentially locally higher in the Straits area if any lake enhancement can overperform. Activity will transition back to some lesser organized lake snows through the day Thursday... but with a lack of cold advection, favorable lake effect parameters will be on the downward trend as warm advection commences (highs 31-35 Thursday)
This will keep things rather cloudy for Thursday night
and with saturation in the DGZ potentially collapsing and leading to freezing drizzle at times as temperatures fall back below 32 Thursday night.

Holiday Weekend: Northern stream clipper will pass along and north of Lake Superior Friday into Saturday. Some snow will be possible across the eastern Yoop, but will have to contend with dry slotting across northern lower as highs Friday spike into the mid-to-upper 30s. No signals jump out on guidance for heavy snowfall, so this will probably be another lighter snowfall for our friends north of the Bridge. While this system will be rather mundane in nature, it does bring about some pretty important developments, namely in the form of a reinforcing, and likely quite impressive, intrusion of arctic air to the region. Stout cold air advection will likely drum up some more lake effect snows come Saturday as temperatures likely tumble through the day, and by Saturday night, most of the area is in the lower single digits, and perhaps even below zero in the eastern Yoop
Lake snows will continue
but if current guidance trends verify... this won't be your impressive lake induced minivan sized dendrites (slight exaggeration) that you see in those Hallmark Christmas movies... if surface temperatures hold in the lower single digits, the snow composition will remain dry, but take on more of a talcum powder composition... which will likely bring about heightened visibility issues and blowing / drifting snow. The cold air doesn't stop there... latest indications are that there may be a string of days early next week with highs in the low-to-mid single digits and overnight lows well below zero... which may bring about our first cold air headlines of the season if trends hold.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 649 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Lake effect clouds and -SHSN continue. Snow will be most common near PLN tonight, but heading into Tue morning, veering winds will spread snow into TVC/CIU/MBL. IFR conditions will occur at times with more intense snow showers. Otherwise, a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions.

Brisk w winds will become nw Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-017- 021-022-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.