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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers through about 2 am. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing southwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots backing north 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..South winds around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 040445 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 937 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Low pressure center is moving out of the Eastern Great Lakes toward New England late this evening. Resulting widespread light snow impacting our CWA continues to very slowly diminish in both areal coverage and intensity as synoptic support and moisture wane as the low exits eastward. This slow diminish will continue into the overnight hours...with all snow chances coming to an end by or just before daybreak on Monday. Current forecast is handling this scenario well...so only minor adjustments are needed attm. Any additional snow accumulations will be minor...generally a trace to half an inch. Overnight lows will drop mainly into the 20s across our CWA.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Widespread snow with snow-covered/ slushy/slick roads across parts of northern Michigan. Snow diminishes this evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure is centered near central Lake Erie this afternoon...progged to continue to slide northeast through the remainder of the day, becoming centered over upstate NY by this evening. Deep moisture and fgen response will follow suit to the east as well, eventually pulling synoptic moisture out of northern Michigan after sunset. Lingering low-level moisture and a marginally supportive over-water thermal gradient may prove to be enough to continue a few snow showers/patchy drizzle through tonight in typically favored northwest flow lake effect areas.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Diminishing precipitation chances this evening/tonight.

Widespread precipitation continues across the Northwoods this afternoon. Dominant precipitation type remains snow for many, aside from a rain/snow mix/all rain from roughly just south of APN to Gladwin and points east. Numerous reports so far of 2-3" across areas that have seen snow since early-mid morning including Lake Ann, Houghton Lake, Bellaire and Gaylord. Another inch or two of wet accumulation likely near and north of M-32 to the Mackinac Bridge with lesser additional amounts elsewhere. Snow-covered/ slushy/slick roads remain likely across much of northern lower.
Snow is expected to diminish from west to east through the evening as deep moisture and forcing is pulled off to the east.

Winds back more northerly this evening and eventually northwesterly by Monday morning. This will gradually bring drier air back into northern MI, but probably not quite quick enough to stop a few lingering spotty snow showers/patchy drizzle/fzdz...mainly for northern lower. Lows tonight spanning the 20s with some spots in eastern upper dropping into the upper teens.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low chances for patchy freezing drizzle early Monday morning. Otherwise, minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Some semblance of upper-level longwave troughing remains the rule across the eastern half of the CONUS through Tuesday night before heights are expected to begin to rise as upstream ridging encroaches on the region for mid-late week. That said, embedded mid-level ridging is expected to cross the area late Monday/Monday night in advance of shortwave troughing set to dive from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. Latest trends continue support a southward trend to attendant weak low pressure with that wave...perhaps going as far to keep precipitation chances entirely to our south.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Lingering light precipitation chances early Monday. Clipper system late Monday night - Tuesday (trending south).

Any lingering very low chances for light precip (flurries/patchy freezing drizzle) early Monday morning should be mitigated fairly quickly as deep layer dry air continues to advect in from the north/northwest. More sunshine expected for the afternoon with highs spanning the 30s area-wide (upper 30s to near 40 degrees at the immediate shorelines).

Attention pretty quickly turns to the late Monday-Tuesday time frame with respect to the aforementioned approaching clipper system.
Latest trends continue to favor a more southerly track to this system, perhaps keeping related precipitation entirely to our south.
Not enough confidence in that just yet to remove PoPs entirely, with the "highest" chances for intermittent snow in the local area remaining south of Frankfort to Gladwin. Certainly doesn't appear to a big deal by any stretch with latest probabilistic guidance hinting at chances for 1" of snow across those areas at no more than 5-10%.

Predominantly tranquil conditions expected for most of Wednesday although another wave to our north will be approaching late in the period (discussed more below). Otherwise, near-normal temperatures continue...generally in the low-mid 30s area-wide.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Mid-upper level ridging continues to build across the nation's midsection for the late week time frame. Only glaring blemish to this is another northern stream wave riding along western periphery of troughing centered to our east. This should aid in dragging a warm front across the region late Wednesday into Thursday morning, perhaps with an area of isentropically driven snow perhaps scraping northern portions of the forecast area. Long range probabilistic guidance trends point toward the best chance for accumulating snow across the Straits and eastern U.P. Aforementioned rising heights Thursday through Friday with temperatures perhaps climbing well above normal.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Low pressure will continue to track eastward out of the Eastern Great Lakes and into New England overnight...with low level ridging building into Michigan on Monday. Residual light snow will gradually come to an end overnight...with some diminish in cloud cover on Monday. Remaining MVFR conditions overnight will improve to VFR on Monday. Light northerly surface winds overnight will shift to the NW under 10 kts on Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Sub-advisory winds/waves are expected to continue across northern Michigan's nearshore waters into early next week. East-northeast winds continue this afternoon as low pressure crosses to our southeast before backing more northwesterly tonight into Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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