Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 6:59PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:14 PM EDT (23:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:04PMMoonset 11:45AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Saturday through Saturday evening...
Through early evening..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest 5 to 10 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering north late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots veering southeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots veering south late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201910190800;;907811 FZUS53 KGRR 182006 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-190800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 182300
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
700 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 306 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: mid-level ridging continues to press into
northern michigan this afternoon with the ridge axis expected to
cross the forecast area overnight tonight. Sfc high pressure evident
across the ohio valley will continue to press toward the eastern
seaboard through this time frame. Low-mid level warm air advection
will be the result locally, although with little in the way of
fanfare weather-wise. Upstream area of low pressure ejecting out of
the rockies into manitoba overnight may allow for a bit of increased
high cloud very late tonight, but again with no sensible weather
concerns foreseen through the near term fcst period.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: low temperatures.

Mainly clear skies are anticipated tonight as aforementioned high
pressure gradually scoots off to the east and attendant mid-level
ridge axis treks overtop the region. Primary focus will revolve
around overnight low temperatures, which despite slowly increasing
southerly return flow will likely fall to near or below freezing in
some of the typically cooler interior locations across northern
lower and eastern upper mi. As one would expect - quite a bit warmer
nearest the great lakes. Overnight low ranging from a couple degrees
on either side of freezing across north-central northeast lower... To
the low 40s near the gtv bay region and points west.

Could foresee a bit of an uptick in upper level clouds towards
Saturday morning out ahead of an area of low pressure trekking
through manitoba with an attendant cold front draped across the
central plains and upper mississippi valley. Certainly no impact
expected from this system through much of the day Saturday.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 306 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Small chance for rain Saturday night, becoming rainy and breezy
Monday...

high impact weather potential: lakeshore flood issues could develop
on lake huron Monday.

Initial shortwave ridging over the central eastern lakes early
Saturday will be displaced downstream. An initial shortwave trof
will lift ne-ward across the northern lakes early Sunday, with an
associated surface trof (with minimal baroclinicity) just ahead of
it. More prominent energy will be digging into the central plains by
then. This will take on a negative tilt, helping to carve out a deep
stacked low over the upper ms valley by late Monday. The main
concerns are: precip chances with the initial shortwave, and
precip wind trends on the Monday with the stronger system to our
west.

Saturday... Significant southerly flow will be in place all day ahead
of the ejecting shortwave and surface trof. This will help support
increasing mid high clouds during the day. The sub-600mb airmass
remains relatively warm and quite dry, and precip is unlikely is
most of the forecast area. Perhaps late in the day, some showers
will approach western chip mack cos. Otherwise a decent enough day.

Highs mid 50s to around 60f.

Sat night Sunday... Better forcing (700-500mb dpva and isentropic
ascent, sub-850mb convergence) crosses northern mi Sat night into
sun morning. But it is nowhere near assured that we will be able to
overcome the antecedent dry low-level air. Mid-level dpva forcing
will be strongest across upper mi and superior, just glancing by nw
portions of the forecast area. So eastern upper mi will have the
highest pops. Chancy pops for rain showers will tail off down the
lake mi coastline of NW lower mi, as well as into parts of far
northern lower mi. But otherwise, precip will tend to lift out to
the ne, leaving N central and NE lower mi largely dry (especially
near and S of m-32). Precip will be gone toward daybreak Sunday, and
cloud cover will diminish in the morning, with a mostly sunny
afternoon. Min temps low-mid 40s. MAX temps upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sun night Monday... Low pressure will rapidly deepen as it moves
slowly from the central plains to the upper ms valley. Return flow
into mi will start to ramp up late Sunday night, with potent
southerly flow at low and mid levels for the day on Monday. Sunday
night will feature a rapid increase in mid-high clouds, and perhaps
some showers sneak into NW lower mi overnight. Pops increase to
likely in all areas by Monday afternoon. Plenty of (relative) warm
air pouring northward, so precip is all liquid. For now, will keep
rainfall amounts in the 0.25-0.75" range for the day. SE surface
winds will be breezy to windy by Monday afternoon. Might see some
lakeshore flood concerns emerge on lake huron Monday. Low temps in
the 40s. High temps upper 50s to lower 60s.&&

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 306 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019
slowly-filling low pressure seems likely to cross superior late
Tuesday early Tuesday night, on its way toward far northern ontario
and hudson bay. Showers remain widespread into the start of Monday
night, but after that parts of northern lower mi may come under the
influence of mid-level dry slotting and get behind the passing
surface occluded front. That front will be much slower to lift north
of eastern upper mi, keeping them soggier for much longer. Winds
will veer SW behind the occluded front and remain gusty thru
Tuesday, with further veering and somewhat lighter winds after. If
there is a lakeshore flood threat, it appears to be largest along
the south shore of upper mi, though perhaps emmet co gets into it
too on Tuesday.

It takes a while, but cooler air gradually works back into the area
behind the departing system. That should persist thru the rest of
the work week. This will support lake effect enhanced precip, aided
by the occasional passing shortwave. Precip looks to be mostly
liquid, though perhaps getting mixy in spots late Wed night and late
thu night.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019
high pressure centered just east of michigan and dry air thru most
of the column will maintain solidVFR conditions at all TAF sites
thru Saturday night. Light variable winds tonight will become S se
at around 10 kts on Saturday.

Marine
Issued at 306 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019
surface high pressure will continue to cross the region today, with
southerly winds increasing tonight, especially over lake michigan
and whitefish bay. Advisory level speeds are anticipated through
Saturday, ahead of a cold front that passes by Saturday night,
bringing our next chance for showers. Even stronger winds are
expected late Sunday night into Monday ahead of deepening low
pressure that will cross the western great lakes.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for lsz321.

Near term... Mg
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Mr
marine... Mg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi95 min S 8 G 16 52°F 1015.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi95 min S 8.9 G 15 52°F 1016.3 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi63 min SSW 12 G 16 52°F 41°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi19 minS 410.00 miFair49°F42°F77%1015.1 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi20 minS 510.00 miFair50°F40°F70%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E3E6E5E5E5SE7E44S6S5W6W3S4
1 day agoN18
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N8NW5NW6NW3NW8N6
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NW7NW8N76Calm
2 days agoSE5CalmW10W14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.