Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:25PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 11:05 AM EDT (15:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:59AMMoonset 2:48PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 805 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Today..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..North winds around 10 knots backing west late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:202007142000;;831862 FZUS53 KGRR 141205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 805 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-142000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 141328 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 928 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 928 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

High pressure centered over Lk Huron and eastern OH this morning. Reasonably tight pressure gradient extends from the lower MO Valley on up into WI and upper MI. Warm/moist air advecting northward is supporting multiple areas of convection to our w. The closest is crossing central upper MI presently, primarily Alger/ Delta/Menominee Cos. This MCS is weakening (no recent lightning observed), as it runs into drier air and outruns the diminishing low level jet. But do have a slight chance of a shower west of I-75 in eastern upper MI late this morning and early this afternoon. This also applies to Beaver Isl and nearby islands in Lake MI. Have increased cloud cover thru mid afternoon in nw sections. And as a partial consequence of the above, have lowered max temps very slightly in the same area.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal. Increasing chances for showers.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper troughing remained over the east coast, with mid level ridging still leaned over through the western Great Lakes early this morning, while deeper upper troughing was in the west/central Canadian provinces, down through the nrn Rockies. At the sfc, high pressure was just sliding east of nrn Michigan providing clear skies, while in relatively drier air. Very quiet here. Not so quiet upstream, where a warm front was lifting through nrn MN and NW WI, and where a cold front extends from Manitoba down through MN and back through NE. Several areas of showers and thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of this front, aided by several shortwaves lifting out of the base of the deep upper troughing. These waves were working on a much more conducive atmosphere to convection, consisting of deep moisture and good instability. The assistance of good upper jet support was a player as well.

The clear skies and quiet conditions will transition to increasing chances for showers and storms for us through tonight. The initial area of convection, which is now pressing through western Lake Superior and NW WI. This convection is expected to move further away from the more conducive atmosphere for showers/storms, and despite some weak vorticity trying to help sustain showers, they are more than likely to dissipate before reaching our far NW CWA.

While the warm front lifts through nrn Michigan this morning with no fanfare, the cold front will move into central Lake Superior and WI by this evening, then into eastern Lake Superior and nrn Lake Michigan through tonight. The atmosphere gradually increases in moisture and instability across western/central upper Michigan and WI, and with the aid of additional shortwave/upper jet support, along with diurnal heating, showers and thunderstorms will break out/expand there. These showers and storms will then track eastward with the cold front, eventually possibly making it into eastern upper this afternoon, but most of the action will come tonight. Of course instability will be waning after sundown, and latest data suggests an even slower arrival to mainly NW lower/far nrn lower and especially eastern upper. Much of the SE CWA is likely to not see anything at all tonight. This means much less instability, and fcst soundings show only a few hundred j/kg at most with the late arrival of precip. Will not include any thunder in the fcst based off all of the above, but showers are likely, and again, mainly across eastern upper.

Highs today will be warmer as the warm front lifts north of us. Readings will range from the lower 80s in eastern upper, to the upper 80s in NE lower. Lows tonight will be mild in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible through Thursday AM

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing will encompass much of south-central Canada and the north-central CONUS as ridging slides into New England Wednesday. At the surface, a cyclone will strengthen west of Hudson Bay underneath favorable divergence/ascent aloft, encroaching on lingering high pressure across the eastern half of the continent. Aforementioned troughing will gradually shift east as shortwaves/ speed maxima embedded in the parent flow rotate into the Great Lakes through mid-week. A diffuse cold front associated with the cyclone is expected to swing down near the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast/Details:

Some scattered showers are expected to be ongoing across portions of NW lower and eastern upper Wednesday morning. Despite recent model guidance continuing a slowing trend with the arrival of the shortwave, a few showers and a rumble of thunder are possible Wednesday afternoon/evening. The main chance for showers and storms is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the shortwave ejects over the Great Lakes. Southerly low-level winds will advect a strip of rich moisture into the region ahead of the front, creating an environment characterized by precipitable water in excess of 1.5". This would be in the upper echelon for sounding climatology and conducive to very efficient rainfall. Marginal instability (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE, 500-1,000 MUCAPE) should exist into the overnight hours Wednesday, which would be enough to support convection/thunderstorms. While some stronger winds aloft (0-6 km bulk shear near 35 kts) could support a few stronger storms, the threat for severe weather should remain low. Boundary-parallel flow will quickly lead to cold pool interactions and upscale growth, creating a messy storm mode.

However, this convective evolution could lead to some areas experiencing locally heavy rainfall. While most are anticipated to receive around 0.25" or less, the potential for multiple rounds of rain and training convection could lead to totals of 1-1.5" for some locally by Thursday morning. While a fair bit of uncertainty still exists will the timing and position of key features, these heavier rainfall totals appear more likely across NW lower/Tip of the Mitt/eastern upper as the front looks to stall in this vicinity on Wednesday. Otherwise, highs in the mid/upper 80s are expected across areas SE of the front on Wednesday. Relatively little cooling is expected behind the front on Thursday with highs in the low/mid 80s.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

A shift to a more zonal upper-level pattern looks to materialize heading into this weekend as the jet sets up along the U.S./Canada border through much of the period. Broad surface high pressure is expected to hold across the CONUS east of the Mississippi River while a seasonably strong cyclone translates east across Hudson Bay. The main story of the weekend will be afternoon highs ramping back up into the upper 80s/low 90s across northern MI. Southerly low- level flow will help raise dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s as well, potentially creating heat indices near 100 for some. With such a warm, moist airmass in place, showers and thunderstorms are certainly possible. Uncertainty regarding timing/potential for any waves to move overhead during the time period reduces confidence in specifics at this time. Given more widespread precipitation, afternoon highs may not reach their full potential.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Skies remain mostly clear with just some cirrus coming into the NW lower airports, which will slide across nrn lower today, while. a SCT cumulus field develops again. A warm front will lift through the region this morning with little fanfare, while a cold front will push through the western Great Lakes tonight. Skies thicken in clouds through the night, especially overnight, while chances for showers increase. There will also likely be some LLWS for the overnight hours tonight for the NW lower airports.

Light southerly winds will turn to lake breezes today, then turning S/SW and increasing a bit tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

High pressure will push east of the region through the day, allowing a cold front to approach by daybreak Wednesday, which then crosses later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds and waves will remain below advisory level into this evening, as light S/SE winds turn to lake breezes this afternoon. The gradient tightens up through tonight and early Wednesday morning prior to the arrival of the front, and a relatively brief period of advisory level winds are likely in the Lake Michigan nearshores. Thus, have hoisted a small craft advisory. The front will bring likely showers and some thunderstorms at times, mainly late tonight through Wednesday night. No severe storms are expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi85 min SSE 4.1 G 9.9 72°F 1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi85 min SSE 9.9 G 14 71°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi69 minS 510.00 miA Few Clouds72°F60°F66%1016.8 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi69 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F56°F57%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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N7NW10NW11NW9NW9N6NW5W4CalmCalmCalmNE3E3E4CalmE4CalmE6E3E4S5
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2 days agoNW9NW8W9W10W9W9W9NW8NW6W5N3N4N4N4NE7N3NE3N5CalmN4CalmN4N11N14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.