Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday April 9, 2020 6:20 PM EDT (22:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday morning...
Through early evening..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Numerous rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tonight..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 5 to 15 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the day.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:202004100800;;839051 FZUS53 KGRR 092006 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-100800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 091950 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 350 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

. Well below normal temperatures continue .

High impact weather potential: Gusty northwest winds to bring gales and potential for lakeshore flooding through tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Impressively deep upper level troughing digging right across the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon . the center of which features a closed circulation right along the Quebec/Ontario border. Well defined shortwave rotating southeast into our area within this broader trough axis. Direct pipeline of modified Arctic air well estabilished, bringing well below normal temperatures to the region (current readings only in the 30s and lower 40s). Tight pressure gradient and deepening of mixed layer resulting in gusty northwest winds, frequently gusting over 30 mph . definitely making it feel much colder yet. Showers becoming more organized and expanding with with time as above mentioned wave interacts with steep lapse rates aloft and rather abundant deep layer moisture. Given a shallow surface rooted melting layer and convective nature of activity, most of these showers are taking the form of snow and graupel. Minimal accumulations given above freezing surface temperatures, but ground is turning briefly white under some of the heavier activity.

Core of troughing rotates overhead this afternoon and evening, with heights slowly rebounding thereafter. Lingering moisture and cold air aloft will bring additional rain and snow showers tonight, with improving conditions on Friday as system departs the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing lingering rain and snow showers (some minimal snow accumulations?). Gusty winds and more attendant gales and lakeshore flooding concerns through tonight.

Details: Expect rain/snow shower coverage and organization/intensity to be maximized the remainder of this afternoon into early evening with passage of that mid level impulse and utilization of limited cape. Snow rates could become heavy enough to allow some minor snow accumulations, especially early this evening across those higher terrain areas. Increasing subsidence and drying tonight should put an end to most of the showers. While H8 temperatures continue to cool right into Friday morning . becoming cold enough to active the lakes . combination of drying and crashing inversion heights/loss of any synoptic support sure argue otherwise, and really starting to wonder if we will experience any well organized lake-driven shower activity given the above. Conditions become even more hostile for lake processes Friday as surface high pressure begins to nudge into the region. Bigger story will be the below normal temperatures, with lows tonight mostly in the 20s, and highs on Friday only reaching the middle 30s to lower 40s (and this despite increasing amounts of sunshine). Gusty northwest winds will make it feel considerably colder, with wind chill reading in the teens and 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

. Nice start to weekend, then things start to go downhill .

High Impact Weather Potential . A strong storm system will begin to impact the area late Sunday, but the more notable impacts will hold off until Sunday night into Monday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Our weekend starts out nice as a skinny surface ridge of high pressure and short wave ridging aloft slide through. The impacts of this ridging will be felt through Saturday, and this will likely be the nicest weather we can expect for a while. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will be the rule.

Then, attention turns to a strong northern stream wave that will be diving into the western CONUS. This wave will significantly amplify the flow across the lower 48, picking up the cutoff low off the coast of California in the process. As these streams begin to phase and translate to the east, rain will begin to develop Sunday across the forecast area. However, the colder air and stronger winds associated with the developing system will hold off until the Long Term forecast period.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Significant system to impact the region Sunday night into Tuesday. Strong winds are a given, along with associated coastal flooding threats. It should also produce a considerable amount of precipitation. Uncertainty remains with respect to how much of this precipitation will be rain and/or snow.

Most model guidance is coming into better agreement with the track of the approaching storm, with the deepening surface low centered near southern IL at 00Z Monday, reaching the Ontario/Quebec border south of James Bay by 00Z Tuesday. Winds really ramp up Monday out of the west and northwest, with gusts to 40 mph or higher possible at times. These winds will be ushering in significantly colder air which should transition the rain to snow with time Monday. If the current storm track holds, or continues its recent trend of tracking further south/east, there is the potential for the change over to snow to occur sooner, and could result in more than trivial accumulation in some areas. It's too early to put a number on potential snow amounts, but we'll definitely need to keep an eye on Monday/Monday night in this regard.

After the main system departs, persistent troffing will linger over the eastern 2/3 of the country for the rest of the week and beyond. This flow regime, with numerous disturbances embedded in the flow, will keep unseasonably cool condtions across the forecast area, along with a periodic risk of rain/snow.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

More MVFR to low end VFR conditions expected as unseasonably chilly airmass spreads overhead. May even see very brief periods of IFR visibilities under passing snow showers into this evening, but with only minimal accumulations. Gradual improving conditions expected on Friday. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Gusty northwest winds will continue tonight through much of Friday, resulting in widespread gales and small craft advisories on our nearshore waters. Winds subside Friday night and Saturday, with sub-advisory winds continuing through much of Sunday. Still watching the potential for significant low pressure to bring very gusty winds back to the region to start next work week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ016-018- 020-021-025-031-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345-346-349. GALE WARNING until 11 AM EDT Friday for LHZ347-348. LM . GALE WARNING until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ322. GALE WARNING until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . PB LONG TERM . PB AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi40 min WSW 13 G 14 40°F 1005.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi40 min WSW 15 G 18 38°F 1005.8 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi50 min W 11 G 15

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi24 minW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F26°F58%1004.9 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi25 minW 9 G 1510.00 miFair39°F31°F75%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6CalmS3SW6NW8NE11E4CalmCalmW3W6NW9NW7NW7NW10W21
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1 day agoSE3NW7W3NW8NW5NW6NW3NW5NW3NW5CalmW3NW5NW3CalmCalm4CalmW10W12W13W94SW5
2 days agoNW3CalmE4E3CalmE3E4E3E3E3E4E5E3E3E4E5CalmSE6SE8S9
G17
SW6W6CalmS7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.