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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1105 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering west toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Saturday..Southwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 081748 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1248 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level ridging overhead will continue to slide east this morning as a potent shortwave punches across the upper Midwest and over the northern Great Lakes today. Ample forcing aloft will continue to support a cyclone over the northern Great Plains that will trek into Ontario by this evening. A secondary cyclone looks to develop along the attendant cold front draped across the Midwest as forcing provided by broader longwave troughing slides overhead late in the period. This weaker cyclone is expected to work into the Great Lakes early Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Mainly quiet weather is anticipated across most of northern Michigan today. Low/mid-level warm advection may help support isolated showers across the eastern U.P. and areas near Saginaw Bay today given saturation through this portion of the profile evident on forecast soundings. With this said, confidence remains low in showers developing and PoPs have been capped below 25% to express this. South winds are expected to increase through the morning hours, gusting to 20-25 mph at times this afternoon.
Aforementioned warm advection will support temperatures around 15 degrees warmer than average today as highs climb into the upper 40s and low 50s for most south of the bridge. GLR and PLN may challenge record highs today (49 degrees for both sites), but most obs sites are expected to stay at least a few degrees away from record highs. This forecast- to-average discrepancy will only grow larger tonight as enhanced southerly flow and increasing cloud cover keep relatively warm temperatures in place. Lows look to stay above 40 for most of northern lower, which would be over 20 degrees warmer than average low temperatures for early December. Otherwise, rain chances associated with the secondary cyclone will begin to work from south to north into the CWA late tonight/early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low-moderate attm....Rain and breezy Saturday, accumulating NNW/NW flow lake effect snow returns Sunday.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave pattern shift in process across the CONUS. Ridging has shifted to the eastern US/Great Lakes as zonal flow punches into the central US. Potent vort max and attendant occluded 991mb surface low over ND. Plenty of difluence over the Upper Midwest ahead of the trough axis...and some cooling cloud tops on IR satellite, amid otherwise strong subsidence, as evidence of this. Strengthening SW- ly LLJ aiding in warm, moist advection over S. TX as well as into the Upper Midwest, as +12 to +16C at 850mb air out over the central US. Surface warm front stretching from a triple point over the Dakotas down into IA. Lingering stationary boundary off to our east along the downstream side of the ridge axis overhead.

Energy over ND attm expected to punch into the Upper Midwest today, dragging a warm front into the region as it lifts into Ontario and shifting the current anomalous low pressure eastward as well...as additional northern stream energy digs into the Dakotas in its wake
Meanwhile
120+kt upper jet drives additional energy down into the back of the longwave trough axis over the central Plains, rounding the base of the trough, with some energy expected to slip northeastward toward the Upper Midwest...driving an attendant surface wave northeastward along the lingering SW-NE oriented boundary into the Great Lakes. Current expectation is for our area to remain in the warm sector of this system Saturday/Saturday night...with a secondary cold front dropping in behind it Saturday night...bringing cooler air and northwesterly flow back into the region as lake aggregate troughing strengthens. Trough axis, expected to be overhead Sunday, should begin to lift out of our region going into the end of the short term...driving development of a surface low over New England.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain Saturday
Snow Sunday

Currently expecting a push of decent rainfall Saturday morning with the niblet punching up into the area. Some uncertainty in exactly where this tracks, depending on where the boundary from tonight stalls out...which could shift the focus for heavier rainfall a little E or W...though still think the general idea is sound.
Pwats a bit better, up around 0.75in, which combined with good synoptic forcing, suggests parts of NW Lower and perhaps the EUP could be in for a decent soaking, given that we'll be in the warm sector. 24-hr QPF probabilities 50-60 percent for 0.25in accumulation by 6z Sun for this region; even 25-35 percent for 0
50in liquid
bulk of which should fall Saturday morning...with showers/drizzle possible during the afternoon. Think it will get quite sloppy across areas that still have snow on the ground by Saturday, pending how much melts today (we lost 3 inches of snow depth at the office yesterday afternoon); particularly noting that the heavier rain could paint a bullseye over areas with more snow on the ground attm...think rivers will respond some, though not seeing anything attm to signal hydro issues beyond nuisance ponding, esp.
where drains are covered by snow/leaves.

Not impossible that there could be a rumble of thunder, esp. toward Saginaw Bay where surface temps could warm ahead of the cold front, and potential for convective instability with that dry slot expected to punch in Saturday morning...though not terribly likely. Were this convective idea to come to fruition, though...may have to keep an eye out for some of the 40-50kt winds aloft to try to mix down with the cold front/heavier precip...on top of it being generally breezy.
Probabilities of the stronger winds getting mixed down are fairly low attm, though.

Transition to snow expected by late afternoon/evening for most, esp.
NW Lower and EUP...as a secondary cold front drops in, and temps fall sufficiently aloft for overlake instability. Inversion heights around 5kft, perhaps a bit closer to 7kft at times early Sunday as another niblet passes nearby. Expecting NW-NNW flow bands to prevail Sunday, which could put down up toward an inch or more of snow, particularly wherever the bands persist in the favorable NW/NNW flow areas, which is possible, noting that boundary layer flow seems pretty stable Sunday. Think this will start to wind down going into Sunday night, with signals for better moisture to pull away. While probability is good for this to be snow...can't rule out some freezing drizzle if we lack cloud ice nuclei, given that cloud top temps may float around -10C
Either way
slick surfaces are a potential, as warmer boundary layer profiles are more favorable for a wetter snow. Think the current snowfall forecast is a little on the higher end of the statistical distribution (which makes sense...as lake effect events usually are)...though if we end up with more freezing drizzle than is currently forecast, I'd expect snowfall totals to diminish
However
it's certainly a possibility that 2-4in of snow could fall in 24 hrs in the NW/NNW flow band areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal attm.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Aforementioned trough axis lifts out of the Great Lakes Monday...driving that East Coast system along. Northern stream energy to drop out of the central Canadian Prairies early next week; this appears to wind up a surface low over southern Canada, which looks to drag a cold front (and attendant breezy conditions) into the region from the north going into midweek, with a weak connection to southern stream energy that seems to want to slow up over the southwestern US next week. Some uncertainty in exactly how this evolves...namely, in how long troughing energy hangs around to our north, which would have potential to keep things a little more active, and perhaps cooler...as ridging should start to set up over the southeastern US/MS Valley again in the southern stream. Think there is some potential for surface high pressure to hang out over the eastern US for mid/late week next week, perhaps not all that dissimilar to the current pattern idea...which could persist this up- and-down temperature roller coaster idea into mid December...pending how the northern stream energy ends up evolving next week, that is.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Lots of clouds across the taf sites at the moment, mainly VFR except IFR at CIU. Temporary clearing is expected from southwest to northeast across northern lower this afternoon (probably not reaching CIU). Low pressure is then expected to spread rain into the area late tonight and Saturday morning as well as lowered cigs. Current gusty southerly winds will come down a bit tonight into the 5 to 10 knot range.

MARINE
Small craft advisory winds and waves are expected to continue over the northern Great Lakes nearshore waters into this evening. Current southeast winds will gradually increase and turn southerly this morning and afternoon, gusting to 25-30 kts at times. Occasional gale force wind gusts cannot be ruled out over Whitefish Bay for a period of a few hours this morning. Winds and waves look to diminish later this evening and tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321- 322.

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