Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 1:11 PM EST (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:21PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1105 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of snow showers. Freezing spray. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots backing south toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201912102200;;146167 FZUS53 KGRR 101606 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-102200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 101756 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1256 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1153 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

A quick update..The snow bands are shifting now to the more west to wsw orientation that they are expected to for tonight. As this has been happening the dominate band in NE Kalkaska county is beginning to diminish. Haven't gotten any reports out of that area this morning, but based on the band and the 7.6" report from Mancelona this morning, wouldn't be surprised if there is an 8 or 10+" amounts in there somewhere. So with this event winding down, will keep the current advisories and begin to look ahead for tonights headlines up near Emmet/Cheboygan counties and probably Western Chippewa county as well.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

. Sharply colder with lake effect snow showers .

High impact weather potential: Turning much colder with accumulating lake effect snow showers in our traditional snow belt locations of eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan. Periods of reduced visibility and snow-covered roads likely.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Low pressure responsible for yesterdays inclement weather now well off to our northeast . racing across central Quebec. Core of mid level trough digging into the far western Great Lakes, with its attendant much talked about Arctic plunge punching southeast across southern Canada into the northern Mississippi valley and northern Great Lakes (current readings well below zero across portions of Minnesota). Leading edge of this Arctic airmass making quick progress into our area on gusty northwest winds. Deformation driven snows from earlier this evening have largely ended, replaced by organizing lake snows into our traditional snow belt locations. Combination of these snow showers and gusty winds no doubt leading to some hazardous driving conditions at times.

Cold air plunge will continue as trough axis swings right overhead through tonight. Resultant temperatures will be well below normal for this time of year, with wind chill reading several degrees colder yet. Lake effect snow showers will most definitely continue right through the period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Lake effect snow accumulations and impacts . with attendant headline considerations.

Details: Mid-winter like conditions expected across the Great Lakes today and tonight, with high temperatures today remaining in the teens and 20s, with lows tonight falling into the single digits and lower teens. While wind gusts won't be too extreme, it will definitely be breezy enough to make it feel several degrees colder . with wind chill readings tonight perhaps dipping below zero at times. Simple extreme magnitude of the over-water thermal gradient will continue to generate lake effect snow showers right through tonight. For northwest lower snow belts, best parameters occur this morning, with strong lift/convergence pegged in the heart of the dendritic growth layer. A steadily backing wind field will limit duration of any intense bands at any one location, but wouldn't be at all surprised to see at least a few inches fall very quickly under any organized banding structures. Development of terrestrial cape and a steadily thinning of large scale moisture should result in a noted downward trend in snow shower organization this afternoon. Would expect to see reorganization tonight as land based cape is lost, this despite a lack of any good synoptic contribution. Winds continue to slowly back, becoming west/southwest overnight. This should target areas north of M-32 for better accumulations, with the M-68 corridor and points north likely seeing at least a few inches of additional snow by morning.

A bit more of a challenging forecast for our famous eastern upper snow belts as those backing winds and potential development of lake- induced low pressure tonight play havoc with placement of better snow shower potential. Latest trends support maximized lake snow parameters occurring today, with slowly backing winds allowing the full length of Lake Superior to be utilized. Moisture tied to passing mid level wave and lake-induced equilibrium levels topping 10kft (lake-induced cape up near 800 joules/kg this afternoon) support intense snowfall rates, at times likely exceeding an inch per hour. However, much like northern lower, those backing winds should prevent long duration of these heavier snow rates. Still, could easily see 4 to 6 inches, locally higher, for areas near Paradise and Tahquamenon Falls by early this evening. Could also see a period of heavier snows target the SOO this afternoon, although by that time would expect snow bands to be much more transient . reducing snowfall accumulation potential. Latest guidance trends continue to advertise development of low pressure across the eastern basin of Lake Superior tonight, forcing a decidedly more backed flow across eastern upper Michigan. This should result in better lake snow pushing north and offshore of Whitefish Point later this evening, not returning until passage of surface trough Wednesday morning.

Headline considerations: Will trim a few counties out of the inherited winter weather advisory across northwest lower, with best bands expected to impact the Charlevoix/Antrim/western Otsego corridor this morning. May eventually need to expand these advisories north into the Tip of the Mitt counties tonight as winds back southwest. As for eastern upper, given heavier snowfall rates expected to materialize today and anticipated snowfall amounts, have opted to include northwest Chippewa county into the winter weather advisory . running through midnight.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Mainly light lake effect snow & cold temperatures continue Wednesday.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Well-advertised mid-upper level troughing continues across the northern Great Lakes through the day Wednesday with the core of the coldest air aloft becoming centered overhead . evident by H8 temps falling to roughly -22 to -24 C. Continued lake effect snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan and Superior will be the result before heights begin to rise and weak warm air advection takes over Wednesday evening - Thursday morning ahead of a compact clipper system set to cross the region Thursday afternoon and evening.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Lake effect snow chances and amounts Wednesday. Cold temps/wind chills.

The core of the coldest air aloft continues to descend on northern Michigan during the day Wednesday with H8 temps falling to -22 to -24 C, and thus lake effect snow showers continuing through the day Wednesday. Certainly there's more than impressive lake induced instability, but nearly all other attributes remain rather anemic through this time frame with nearly zero synoptic support/moisture above a 4 kft inversion and a DGZ rooted at the surface given such cold air aloft. Given that winds will slowly be veering more west- northwesterly through the midday and afternoon hours, would expect any relatively minor accumulations to be fanned out across a good chunk of northwest lower and northern Chippewa County. Expecting generally another 1-3 inches of fluffy accumulation across the hardest hit locations through the day Wednesday, although could foresee some locally higher amounts up to 5 inches near Whitefish Point stretching potentially over to locations near the Soo. Somewhat gusty surface wind gusts through this time frame may also yield pockets of blowing snow, especially across north- south oriented roadways.

Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, weak warm air advection gradually increases from south to north . bringing a diminishing trend to lingering snow showers through the overnight hours. However, attention then transitions to a compact, quick-moving clipper system set to cross the region during the day Thursday. Could foresee an area of light snow spreading west to east across much of northern Michigan as early as mid-late Thursday morning, continuing into the afternoon before diminishing late in the day. Latest trends suggest the bulk of accumulation (generally in the 1-3 inch range) with this system will fall across far northwest lower, the Tip of the Mitt into parts of eastern upper with lesser amounts as you head toward the M-55 corridor and toward Saginaw Bay.

Otherwise, the other story remains the season's coldest air to date with high temperatures on Wednesday in the teens for most across northern Michigan. Combine that with an occasionally gusty west/west- northwest wind alluded to above and wind chills are expected to remain in the single digits below zero for much of the day leading to a truly mid-winter feel. Wednesday night lows in the single digits for most.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

High impact weather potential: Occasional chances for bouts of wintry weather at various times through the long term forecast period.

The aforementioned weak clipper system during the day Thursday may yield a few lingering snow showers into Thursday night, although with little impact anticipated by that time. Otherwise, while global model guidance diverges in the degree of overall large scale pattern amplification, occasional pieces of energy may prove to be enough to bring occasional wintry precipitation chances to at least parts of northern Michigan at various times through the remainder of the long term forecast period. The first chance for this arrives during the day Saturday with periods of light snow and/or mixed precipitation possible.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Lake effect snow bands continue this afternoon into Wednesday as the low pressure continues to retreat east, and the cold air with associated with the sfc high pressure continues to stream over the relatively warm Great Lakes. Winds in the layer from the sfc to about 5000 feet are beginning to the WNW and will continue to back to the WSW by this evening. The change in direction will push the snow bands from the TVC and mbL toward PLN. While light snow is still possible at mbL and TVC, the MVFR/IFR category vsbys and CIGS will be mainly limited to PLN where the the bands are expected to reestablish themselves.

APN will see a brief lowering as the snow bands and clouds move through the taf site while the bands shift with the wind direction. For the rest of the TAF in APN, the cigs and vsbys will remain VFR/MVFR.

MARINE. Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Coldest air yet this season will continue to overspread the Great Lakes today through Wednesday, resulting in plenty of lake effect snow showers. Gusty northwest winds this morning will likely subside some this afternoon as they slowly back more west and southwest. Winds will become gusty once again across all waters tonight and Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ021- 022-027-028-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ086. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JL NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . JL MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi32 min W 14 G 16 22°F 1019 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi32 min NW 8 G 14 20°F 1018.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi66 min WNW 5.1 G 12 20°F 5°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi16 minWNW 119.00 miLight Snow20°F10°F68%1018.6 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi17 minNW 710.00 miOvercast22°F9°F60%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4W3SW4SW3W7NW9NW16
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1 day agoSW10SW8SW7SW4CalmCalmE3E3E3E3CalmE3E5E4E4E5E5E4E5E5E4E3CalmW3
2 days agoS9
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S7S8SE7SE6S7S7SE6S6SE7S6S9S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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