Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:43PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 5:42 AM EST (10:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:32AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Thursday morning...
Early this morning..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet late in the day.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:202001212100;;281250 FZUS53 KGRR 210905 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-212100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 211010 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 510 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 510 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Low clouds have been rapidly eroding across eastern upper and the interior of northern lower MI. Some stratocu still hugs the Lake MI coast (CVX/Harbor Spgs/MBL), and clouds seem to be retreating out of southern zones. Near-term guidance favors stratocu reforming in the few hours after sunrise, mainly away from Lake MI, and still expect portions of n central lower MI and far eastern upper MI to go mostly cloudy for a few hours around midday. But until then, cloud cover has been substantially reduced.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 323 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Strong high pressure is in the MO/IA/IL border region early this morning. Warm advection is well underway at 850mb, but shallow cool air is in place both here and upstream (single digit temps above and below zero across WI and western upper MI). Thus, we are still generating lake-effect clouds and a few flurries, though these are dwindling.

1000-850mb winds are wnw and backing, on the way to w by daybreak. The high will gradually advance up the OH Valley thru tonight, and will be centered over WV by Wednesday morning. As this happens, our winds will slowly back to the sw-wsw, with most of this additional backing occurring this afternoon and evening. Warm advection will strengthen as sub-850mb winds increase. 850mb temps should be very slightly above 0C across all of northern MI by Wed morning.

Inversion heights are sliding beneath 2k feet early this morning, and aren't going to go any higher. The chilly surface air on the other side of Lake Mi may contribute to some lake clouds as late as early afternoon. But the flurry threat is being eliminated, and as BL temps rise today here and upstream, any delta Ts will be wiped out. That said, this still means trending the forecast considerably cloudier than earlier expected, in particular for n central lower MI, and east of I-75 in eastern upper.

For tonight, partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions will be seen, cloudiest in eastern upper MI at the end of a long marine fetch. Overnight, mid- and upper-level clouds will increase in deep warm advection.

Max temps today will be in the upper 20s to around 30f. Min temps tonight will not drop much near Lake MI (mid 20s), while colder locales (especially near Saginaw Bay) may dip into the upper teens.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

. A weak system brings increasing chances for light snow .

High Impact Weather . None is expected.

Forecast Concerns . Pops and snow amounts.

A strung out trough will crawl across the region through the period along with some wind. This will lead to increasing chances for some light precipitation (best chances across eastern upper and northwest lower). Looking at model soundings, this should fall in the form of light snow with possible accumulations of generally up to an inch and perhaps even two (mainly across eastern upper). If moisture turns out to be too shallow (i.e. doesn't reach up to -10C) then there could be a little drizzle or freezing drizzle but chances of this occurring appear to be on the low side. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal . generally in the lower and mid 30s during the day and in the 20s at night.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 323 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

. Monitoring a storm which is likely to move by to our south .

High Impact Weather . None is expected at this time.

Forecast Concerns . Pops through the period.

A very slow moving system likely tracks by to our south. Extended models vary on just how far north moisture and precipitation (likely in the form of snow) will get. So we will continue to monitor this system and only have chance pops with perhaps a sliver of likely pops across far southeast zones in the forecast for now. Arctic air remains way up across the far northern territories of Canada and there is not any indication that it will move toward northern Michigan anytime soon so the mild temperatures are expected to continue through the period.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1145 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Large area of strong high pressure currently centered over Iowa will gradually drop SE into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. Overall subsidence will be the rule across Michigan . although some lake clouds and a few flurries will hold on overnight. Solid VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday with no snow expected. West winds under 10 kts overnight will become SW and strengthen to 10 to 20 kts on Tuesday . with some higher gusts expected.

MARINE. Issued at 323 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

High pressure in northern MI will slowly move east into and across the OH Valley thru tonight. Winds will slowly back and increase over the waters, especially tonight. Gales are a distinct possibility, particularly on Lake MI, and warnings will be posted with the next issuance.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323. GALE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . MR MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi63 min WSW 13 G 15 28°F 1034.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi63 min WSW 9.9 G 14 27°F 1034.5 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi61 min W 8 G 11 26°F 17°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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SE12
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W14
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W11
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi47 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy11°F8°F88%1034.9 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi47 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F19°F76%1034.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW6NW66NW9NW9NW8NW4NW8NW6NW6NW5NW4NW3Calm3E3CalmE3E3E3Calm
1 day agoNW15
G20
N13
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N10N11
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NE11N10N9N11
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N7
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N5N5N4N8
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N5N7N5NE8NE4NE4NE4CalmE3
2 days agoSE12
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SE11
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SE9E9
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E8E8SE5SW4W21
G25
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W25W21
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.