Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 9:22PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:30 PM EDT (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 6:48AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest around 10 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ849 Expires:201907190900;;279758 FZUS53 KGRR 190205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-190900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190132
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
932 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Update
Issued at 932 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
not a particularly busy evening in this cwa, at least at this
instant. CU stratocu field is making inroads from northern lake mi
into NW lower mi. Some of this is bubbly enough to produce weak
returns on radar, and given relatively low CIGS and moist low-
level air, suspect some of this is reaching the ground. Have
introduced some sprinkles to account.

More vigorous showers are just to our nw, in the broader pictured
rocks area. Not a lot of lightning here, but every once in a while
tln is detecting a strike or two. This will bring showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm to central northern chippewa co over the
next several hours.

If there is a main show tonight, it will originate with and ahead
of the broken line of convection now over southern mn. Cams
develop additional showers storms on the axis of and ahead of
that line, north of a stalled boundary over northern and e-central
ia. This gradually grows upscale as it presses eastward,
threatening the mbl ludington areas perhaps as soon as 1 am.

Clusters of showers storms will expand a bit into SW and perhaps s
central parts of the forecast area, before weakening with further
eastward extent as storms outrun the low-level jet.

We don't have a great deal of instability presently, with some nw
lower mi coastal counties and western chip mack cos with mlcape
values in high triple digits. And SBCAPE will decrease with loss
of diurnal heating. There is a plume of high MUCAPE values in
southern wi, and this will make some inroads into SW sections as
low-level SW flow increases. This could be enough to support some
stronger storms overnight in parts of NW lower mi. I would not
totally rule out a stray svr storm or two, but activity will be
disorganized multi-cellular in nature, and SPC has essentially
removed northern mi from the earlier marginal svr risk.

Our moist airmass (pwat values 1.5-1.6 per 00z apx grb soundings)
will be prone to heavy rainfall. Most recent rap run keeps that
just south of this forecast area, impacting ludington pentwater
etc. Hrrr is wetter further north, even as far as tvc. Some 1-2"
rainfall accums seem entirely possible overnight, near south of
m-72 and west of us-127.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 332 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
high impact weather potential: few thunderstorms possible this
through tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorm remains possible.

Pattern forecast: current mid-afternoon composite analysis reveals
low pressure across ontario with a warm front extending southward
through eastern upper into lake huron... And further southeastward.

Low pressure and attendant surface boundary are expected to continue
to shift northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon into
the overnight hours continuing to leave all of northern michigan in
the warm muggy sector.

Attention then shifts to a secondary quasi-stationary boundary warm
front dewpoint boundary that's draped across southern mn ia through
southern wi... Expected to slowly shift a bit northward tonight and
perhaps becoming the focus for additional shower and storm
development, although lots of questions remain.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: convective evolution and
resultant pops thunder chances. Isolated severe storm?
overall, a rather low confidence forecast moving forward this
evening into the overnight hours. Latest trends suggest the ongoing
area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across eastern upper and
lake huron continue to shift off to the northeast into ontario over
the next several hours, coinciding with the continued northeastward
progression of the aforementioned warm front. This will ultimately
leave drier weather to prevail, already evident across much of
northern lower. However, SPC mesoanalysis reveals upwards of 1,500
j kg of MLCAPE developing in its wake... Likely to increase beyond
this through peak daytime heating as temperatures climb into the 80s
behind any precip (tvc at 86, cad 86, htl 82 degrees, etc). Main
limiting factor in additional shower storm developing through the
remainder of the daylight hours is any large scale forcing for
ascent, which is essentially nil. While latest short-term cams agree
with the thought of primarily dry weather prevailing through the
evening hours, if an isolated storm is able to develop off of any
small scale forcing, bulk shear values upwards of 40-45 kts nosing
into the region would promote potentially robust sustained updrafts
and the threat of an isolated severe wind gust. Again, this threat
is low, but the forecast area does remain in a marginal risk for
severe storms per spc's latest day 1 outlook.

Attention shifts to the aforementioned secondary surface reflection
expected to become situated across southern mn into southern central
wi this evening and overnight. Additional shower storm development
is possible along this feature later this evening across southern mi
(within spcs slight risk area) - on the nose of stronger wind fields
aloft with little in the way of capping. This development may wind
up growing upscale into another MCS overnight as it shifts east-
southeastward across wi toward central lake michigan. Current
expectations are that convective evolution should lend the strongest
cells primarily to the south of the forecast area after 3-4 am
Friday, although wouldn't be the surprised if areas south of m-72
(and especially along south of m-55), get scraped on the northern
edge of showers storms. Worth monitoring moving forward over the
next 12+ hours, however, as any storms that are able to make it over
the lake toward the forecast area may pose a severe risk given
continued deep layer bulk shear values AOA 35-40 kts.

Mild muggy low temps tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s for most
will give a kick start to Friday's expected heat and potentially
dangerous heat indices.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 332 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Unsettled very warm and humid into the weekend...

high impact weather potential: very warm humid conditions possible
for Friday with high heat indices. Marginal risk for severe storms
Friday into Saturday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: semi-permanent large scale upper level
ridging spans the southern CONUS with strong westerly flow across
the northern tier of states southern canada and into the great
lakes. Resurgence of warm moist air into the region is underway
evidenced by several pockets of showers and thunderstorms spreading
north eastward through the state western great lakes the most
notable of which is a decaying MCS complex sliding through lower
michigan. Parent surface low pressure is over ontario with some
semblance of warm front pressing eastward across lake superior and
lake huron and most of michigan now within the warm (and muggy)
sector. Secondary warm front dewpoint boundary may be draped across
iowa into the lower great lakes.

Northern michigan and the western great lakes will remain entrenched
within this warm and muggy airmass for the next few days until a
cold front finally presses southward through the state on Sunday.

Several more rounds of showers storms will impact the region. But
exact timing and location of convection is and will remain uncertain.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: convective evolution over the
next few days... Impact on cloud cover temps etc. Risk for severe
storms.

The latest thoughts on convective evolution is that will see renewed
development later tonight back across central wisconsin and possibly
eastward into central and southern lower michigan... As the low level
jet ramps back up along and south of the secondary boundary. Thus,
i'm expecting showers thunderstorms to be tracking eastward through
mainly lower michigan Friday morning and mainly impacting areas
south of m-72 before clearing the area heading into the afternoon.

Assuming we can thin out cloud cover heading into the afternoon,
temperatures should be able to warm into the upper 80s and some
lower 90s with heat indices reaching 95f to 100f, just touching
advisory criteria (100f). But given the overall uncertainty of
convective evolution and cloud cover trends, i'll hold off on
hoisting any heat related headlines at this juncture and allow later
shifts to see how things unfold.

Pattern remains active Friday night through Saturday with additional
showers and storms likely developing in the region, and potentially
impacting the forecast area. But again, confidence in timing and
location remains low and i've tried to not be too cute specific with
pops weather at this juncture.

Severe weather potential: sitting on the edge of strong westerly
flow aloft and within a moisture instability rich environment, any
storms over the next few days will have the potential to be severe,
not to mention to produce some hefty rainfall amounts with pwat
values north of 1.5 inches. Both SPC and wpc place the region within
a marginal risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall Friday and
at least Friday night... Which makes sense. Will just have to play it
one day at a time.

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday)
issued at 332 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
high impact weather potential: none at this time.

A bit of a pattern shift appears on tap in the long term as large
scale upper level ridging through the southern CONUS shifts and
builds back into the western states... While downstream flow buckles
across the great lakes into new england. This signals the end of our
warm humid stretch with a cold frontal passage on Sunday with
temperatures getting knocked back down into 70s to lower 80s through
next week and (more importantly) dewpoints getting suppressed back
into the 40s and 50s. Sensible weather-wise, probably not much as a
large expanse of high pressure builds and settles into the region
for much of the week. As discussed by overnight long term
forecaster, extended guidance does continue to show some sporadic
spotty precip popping throughout the week... More along the lines of
diurnally driven type showers. But plan for now is to more or less
remove most precip chances through the week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 732 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
humid. Showers storms possible overnight into early Friday, mainly
mbl and perhaps tvc.

Warm muggy air remains in place. Pretty quiet withVFR conditions
now. Showers storms are developing upstream in parts of wi southern
mn, and will move east tonight. Some of this activity will poke
into NW lower mi, impacting mbl in particular, and to a lesser
degree tvc. Most of this will stay south of pln apn. Brief but
sharp cig vsby restrictions possible. mbl TAF will include some
outright thunder late tonight.

Sw winds, mostly on the light side.

Marine
Issued at 332 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
an area of low pressure will continue to shift northeastward through
ontario this afternoon through tonight, pulling a warm front and
attendant tighter pressure gradient across northern michigan. This
is expected to result in low end small craft advisory wind speeds
across portions of lake michigan through this evening. Another warm
front and tightening gradient arrives Friday night into Saturday,
bringing potentially more advisory level winds - although lower
confidence prevails during this time frame. With respect to
precipitation chances, there will be mainly low chances for showers
and storms with heavy rainfall and some severe storms through
Saturday. The main threats will be for damaging winds & large
hail.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Mg
short term... Ba
long term... Ba
aviation... Jz
marine... Mg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi50 min SSE 1.9 G 8 77°F 1009.1 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi50 min S 11 G 15 72°F 1008.5 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi48 min SSW 11 G 15
45024 23 mi20 min S 14 G 16 71°F 69°F3 ft1009.9 hPa70°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi34 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1007 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi35 minSW 910.00 miFair78°F71°F81%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4E5E6E5E4E6SE4CalmCalm5S4E3CalmS8W13
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1 day agoCalmE3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmE3E5NE7N64E6NW10NW10NW7NW8NW7W5W3E3CalmE4
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SW10SW9W8W106SW8SW6SW4W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.