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LMZ522 Expires:202405151000;;232557 Fzus53 Kgrb 150452 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1152 pm cdt Tue may 14 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-151000- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 1152 pm cdt Tue may 14 2024
Rest of the night - N wind 10 to 20 kts. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.Wednesday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less. Wednesday night - NE wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less. Thursday - SE wind 10 to 15 kts. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
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FXUS63 KGRB 150335 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1035 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost are possible over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin tonight.

- Relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range away from the bay and lake Wednesday afternoon which may cause increased fire potential.

- A couple of thunderstorms will be possible in the area Thursday afternoon. Additional chances for rain and possibly thunder will be in the region Friday afternoon, Saturday night, and Sunday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday

Main forecast challenge to be on temperatures for tonight as skies clear and winds diminish.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure that extended from northern Ontario southwest into the Upper MS Valley.
A triplicate of weak low pressure areas were situated over western ND, southwest SD and western NE. Visible satellite indicated a band of clouds over the southern Great Lakes associated with a system over the mid-MS Valley and another band of clouds associated with the low pressure areas over the northern Plains.

This ridge of high pressure will slowly shift east and move into the western Great Lakes tonight. Other than some high clouds drifting overhead at times, mostly clear skies and light winds can be expected tonight. Due to the relatively dry air mass in place, temperatures are forecast to quickly drop later tonight into the lower to middle 30s across the north and prompt the need for a Frost Advisory. Central and east-central WI should stay in the lower to middle 40s and be safe from any frost.

This ridge to continue slowly moving east on Wednesday and remain our main weather feature through the day. Low pressure is expected to merge over the northern Plains and join up with a mid-level shortwave trough. Some middle and high clouds may push east ahead of these systems and reach central WI Wednesday afternoon. Max temperatures for Wednesday to range from around 60 degrees near Lake MI, upper 60s to around 70 degrees across central WI.

Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday

Active weather will work its way back into the forecast during the extended period, with several chances for some rain and/or a few storms from the end of this work week through the weekend.

Thursday...A fast moving upper shortwave will work its way into the region early on Thursday, bringing showers into the area from west to east. Moisture will be relatively limited early in the day, but precipitable water values do increase later in the day as the system continues to occlude. Instability values will increase in the afternoon but remain modest with around 300-500 J/kg CAPE across the eastern portions of the area. This could support some thunder in the afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.
Overall, rainfall amounts will likely be a widespread couple of tenths, but higher amounts approaching a half inch will be possible with any thunderstorms in eastern Wisconsin.

Friday...Behind the system from Thursday, the general trend for Friday has been towards a drier forecast. The more unsettled airmass to our south could largely remain south during the day while the next clipper in Canada will yet remain west. As a result, Friday does see the potential to largely remain dry.
Maintained low pops for now however, as soundings do support the potential for some meager instability, especially if temperatures come up another few degrees. This could ultimately still result in a few showers in the area, even if most of the region remains dry and the larger system remain out of the area.

Rest of the forecast...The next chance for precipitation will be a relatively fast moving system over the weekend. Many of the details of this system remain unclear, with timing ranging from late Saturday to early Sunday. Although the details may vary, none of the current scenarios for this system include strong or severe storms, so the main thing to look for will be changes in precipitation amounts.

Outside of rain, temperatures will be on the rise through the weekend, with highs in the 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Then, temperatures will begin to decrease again next week, with highs back in the 70s early next week.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening. Frost is possible overnight across far north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. On Wednesday, wind gusts to around 15 knots are possible from 16z Wed to 01z Thu. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives early Thursday morning, then chance of rain will continue through the day Thursday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ005-010>013-018- 019-021.

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