Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montpelier, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1008 PM EDT Friday...Light rain or sprinkles are being noted at the Hammond mesonet cam. So activity from a thin strip of convergence and mid-level moisture is managing to erode dry air just enough to reach the ground. Adjusted PoPs up a little more, but whether anything measures is still debatable with a hundredth or so at best. Dewpoints are also running a bit higher than prior forecasts, and this also supports bumping PoPs up just a bit. The overall forecast remains in good shape as the advection of dry air should keep rain confined to a thin strip.

Excerpt of previous discussion...
We can expect virga or light rainfall perhaps 0.01-0.10" and the highest of these amounts falling in southern zones near best frontogenesis. Under the cover of clouds, lows will fall only into the mid 40s mid 50s, though this is still about or below seasonable for this time of year.

We continue to see models project the frontal boundary moving south and east tomorrow, so other than a lingering morning shower, most of Saturday will be dry, especially in northern and western zones.
Southern and eastern areas have about 10-30% chance of precipitation with up to 0.10" additional rainfall, only for the morning hours.
Cloudy conditions in southern zones will keep highs only in the mid to upper 60s while northern areas could have more sunshine, propelling highs into the lower 70s. Overall, we expect a relatively cool day for mid June in northern New York and Vermont. Saturday night should be fairly quiet, the trend of southern clouds vs.
clearer north continuing. This will result in lows mid 40s to mid 50s again.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 346 PM EDT Friday...Sunday and Sunday night should mainly feature quiet weather, with temperatures close to seasonal normals.
There's a slight chance for showers Sunday afternoon as some shortwave energy passes through the northwesterly upper level flow across our region. Will also have dewpoints begin to climb on southerly flow, so there will be a bit of daytime heating and some shallow instability develops. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, then overnight lows will dip back into the 50s areawide.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 346 PM EDT Friday...Monday onwards will feature warming temperatures and some more active weather also. South southwesterly flow develops, leading to warming temperatures for the region. This will gradually allow temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 70s on Monday and well into the 80s for the mid-week, Tue-Thu period.
Dewpoints will also increase through the week providing the region with more humid conditions, especially by Wednesday and Thursday.
Increasing moisture and instability will bring an increased threat for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. An approaching frontal system from the Great Lakes on Thursday suggests a greater potential for strong to severe thunderstorms by Thursday, and we'll be monitoring this potential in the coming days. Highest PoPs in the extended portion of the forecast are on Thursday, generally 60-75% during the afternoon hours.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00Z Sunday...Conditions are VFR with light north winds at 6 knots or less. Winds will trend light and variable. Clouds will increase with lowering ceilings, but still at or above 6000 ft agl through 12z Sunday. Mid to upper level moisture is expected to produce a thin line of stratiform rain that will slowly edge southwards. Little to no visibility or ceiling impacts are expected. After 12z, some additional moisture from the south will meet a cold front shifting from Canada down to Vermont and northern New York. Ceilings at KRUT should fall to 1800-2800 ft agl, and KMPV may get close to 3000 ft agl, but dry air north of the front will keep the rest of our terminals VFR.
This cold front will dissipate, and additional dry air should trend sites back towards VFR, but it is possible KRUT may still be MVFR by 00z Sunday. Winds at KRUT and KMPV will become southeasterly, while remaining terminals north of the front will be north to northeasterly.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.