Montpelier, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montpelier, VT

June 22, 2024 12:54 PM EDT (16:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:06 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 9:55 PM   Moonset 5:04 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montpelier, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1021 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist into the beginning of next week, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for strong to severe storms Sunday as a cold front moves through. These storms will also contain heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

As of 1019 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains in good shape so only made minor changes to bring it up to date with current obs.
Thunderstorm coverage should remain south of our CWA with showers and patchy fog around, some of which could be locally dense across the higher mountain passes. Previous discussion follows...

A weak boundary is currently situated across the North Country and it has caused a few showers to develop. These showers have been able to saturate the low levels, and without any flow, patchy fog has developed. It is going to take awhile for the fog and low stratus to lift today because a warm front will push into the region and cause a bit of a surface inversion. Combined with thick cloud cover and showers, the sun will have a hard time creating any mixing at the surface.

Elevated convection is beginning to develop tonight due to a weak shortwave passing into the region. These showers will continue into the day today as a warm front makes its way north across the region. Isolated flash flooding is possible if multiple storms hit the same area, but the threat is low. A few of these storms could contain lightning but there is not a severe threat. The front passes north of the international border Saturday night and there should be somewhat of a lull in the action, particularly over southern Vermont. The front looks to stall just north of the international border Saturday night into Sunday, and it will produce a narrow area of very heavy rainfall. Now that confidence has increased that it will stall north of border, the flooding threat in the region has diminished. However, with the front to the north on Sunday, the region will get into the warm sector of the storm. This has caused the severe threat on Sunday to increase. Abundant deep layer shear will be in place and there should be enough sunshine for instability to develop. CAPE looks to reach between 1000-1500 J/KG though there is a possibility that it exceeds those values. It will rely on any convective debris to move out Sunday morning, so lingering clouds could dampen the risk a little. There will also be very strong low- level helicity, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the main threats will be strong winds and hail. There is also a flash flooding risk with these storms, given high PWATs and very deep warm cloud layers. However, fast storm motion will help keep the risk localized to areas that receive multiple storms.

As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...Thunderstorms will diminish Sunday night as the cold front crosses the region and instability wanes. However, showers will likely persist through much of the overnight, especially over the higher terrain as flow turns to the northwest.
The upper trough will swing overhead on Monday, so expect ample cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers through much of the day. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible, as well. Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, but with cloudy skies and breezy northwest winds, it may feel a little on the cool side. Showers will wind down Monday night and skies will clear from west to east as the upper trough departs. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60F.

As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be dry as ridging briefly builds over the area. The break will be short-lived though as a cold frontal passage will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday. Some storms could be on the strong side given CAPE values of 750 to 1200+ J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40kt, but there's some evidence on model soundings that there could be a capping inversion around for a good part of the day. Still, trends will need to be watched as we draw closer to the middle of next week. Much drier air will work in behind the cold front, so expect a more prolonged dry spell for the end of next week. Highs will be back up into the mid and upper 80s ahead of the front, but then should cool back down into the 70s to around 80F for Thursday and Friday.

Through 12Z Sunday...A warm front will slowly pass through the region today and into tonight, bringing showers and low ceilings. A few of the showers will likely be heavy enough to briefly lower visibilities to MVFR. Fog has developed this morning as well. There will be a gradual improvement with ceilings and visibilities during the day. However, there will be a lot of low-level moisture trapped in place, so the clouds will be much more stubborn than typical during the day. All terminals are forecast to be out of IFR by around noon but it looks unlikely that any of the terminals will improve to VFR conditions that are not already there. Ceilings should fall back tonight and low MVFR and IFR conditions look to develop at many of the terminals again. Patchy fog will probably develop again as well. It will take until tomorrow morning for the front to push to the north and have southerly flow clear out the low clouds and fog. However, a low-level jet will pass overhead and cause LLWS to develop at all the terminals. Winds at the surface will generally be light during the period though they will begin to increase tomorrow morning.


Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 5 sm21 minESE 047 smOvercast Lt Rain 64°F63°F94%30.12
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 18 sm60 mincalm10 smOvercast68°F64°F88%30.06
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