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FXUS61 KBTV 021732 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1232 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Periods of showers, drizzle, and foggy conditions are expected into Sunday as a stationary front lingers across the region.
Temperatures will begin to cool tonight, resulting in the potential for areas of freezing drizzle in parts of northern New York and Vermont. Warm conditions today should limit potential ice accumulations to untreated overpasses and elevated surfaces. Then, a stronger system is expected to impact the region late Sunday into Monday. Several inches of heavy, wet snow is becoming increasingly likely in much of the region except for the lowest valleys. Conditions will trend cooler, with intermittent periods of showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1210 PM EST Saturday...Fog continues to be the main story this afternoon, with most locations still reporting visibilities of 1 mile or less. Moisture isn't going anywhere, and given the lack of flow, expect fog will remain pretty widespread through the rest of today. Temperatures are in the mid 30s to around 40, and little to no change is expected as we remain socked in this afternoon. Forecast has this all mostly covered, just made sure to keep areas of fog wording going through the remainder of today. No other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...A stationary boundary remains entrenched across the region. Thankfully, we are in the mid 30s to lower 40s, or else this weather pattern weather would be a real problem. Still, dense fog, patchy drizzle, and overall grey weather conditions are on tap. An upper shortwave and weak surface trough will shift east early this morning and afternoon, which should maximize precipitation chances and then taper off by evening. However, with plenty of moisture still in place, some lingering drizzle appears likely. Behind the trough, north winds will allow cool drainage of north winds into our lower valleys, which will bring Saturday night temperatures into the low to mid 30s. Some light ice accumulations will be possible. Present indications suggest mainly the eastern flank of the Adirondacks and higher elevations of Vermont are the most likely locations for any freezing drizzle. Atop mountains, there could be some impressive rime ice features, but overall impacts will likely be limited across population centers due to antecedent warmth. Will continue to monitor these trends for any impacts to Sunday morning travel on elevated bridges. Incoming mid- level moisture from the next large scale system will saturate the DGZ, and we should see drizzle phase out heading into Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 AM EST Saturday...A double-barrel low situation is on track Sunday afternoon into Monday. There has been little change to overall forecast and the level of confidence with the forecast. The degree of spread remains large due to marginal temperatures, an aggressive dry slot, and forecast guidance not relenting from their position with little clustering. For the sake of messaging likely utility impacts from heavy, wet snow which will not be as reliant on surface temperatures, the forecast leans towards the 75th percentile. Yet, this is still not enough to place snowfall amounts towards watch/warning criteria (7" for an event). Users are reminded that 10:1 ratio model forecasts will have a high bias due to ratios likely ranging between 5 and 8:1.

Below are some key messages: *Moderate to heavy snow will be possible in the Adirondacks and along the Green Mountains into eastern Vermont. The time frame for travel impacts is most likely between Sunday evening and Sunday night. Snowfall rates are likely to decrease Monday morning with temperatures warming above freezing.

*Snow will be wet and heavy. Scattered power outages will be possible across northern New York and along the Greens into eastern Vermont. The time frame for utility impacts is most likely between Sunday night into Monday morning.

*Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing on Monday before falling below freezing Monday night. Any snowmelt on roadways may result in black ice Monday night.

The main reason for potential concerns is the QPF associated with the system. With liquid equivalents ranging between 0.66-1.25", there is potential for some higher snow totals depending on snowfall rates, but there are several caveats that also point to some bust potential. Due to warm surface conditions, it will be highly elevation depending. Winds aloft are mainly 35 to 40 knots, and not anticipating strong gusts. There will be some terrain influence, but not as notable as can occur with these type of events. Broader regions of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Champlain Valley are more likely to receive a dusting to 3 inches of snow. Across the Adirondacks, northern St. Lawrence County, and the foothills of either side of the Greens and eastern Vermont are likely to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow. Then as you climb above 2500 ft elevation, amounts are likely to range between 6 to 10 inches, locally up to a foot. When exactly precipitation ends will depend a bit on how quickly low pressure slides east against broad high pressure in eastern Quebec Province with the EC lingering precipitation longest.
Again, the forecast is a bit on the higher side running with a more stretched out time frame for potential snow accumulations.
Nevertheless, as northwest flow develops, we should observe a transition to orographic snow favoring our western slopes, and down to the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys as flow remains very light and likely blocked. As temperatures fall below freezing behind the departing system, any snowmelt or standing water could transition to some black ice on roadways.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 335 AM EST Saturday...Rain and snow showers will linger into Monday night as upper level trough continues to push through the area. Another low pressure system will pass southwest of our area on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Precipitation should mostly stay out of our forecast area with this system as it tracks from the Great Lakes across NY and off the New England coast, though some lingering showers are possible as upper level shortwave energy passes overhead until early Thursday. High pressure will ridge over the area for Thursday, before another system approaches for Friday and into the weekend. Wednesday into Wednesday night will be the coldest of the period, while the rest of the days will hover near seasonal normals for early December. Generally only light precipitation anticipated for the extended portion of the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...Persistence will be the forecast for the next 24 hours as little improvement, if any, is expected from current observations. That said, prevailing rain should taper back to areas of drizzle after 20-21Z and through the overnight, with rising chances for prevailing rain again from mid-Sunday morning onward. Otherwise, ceilings will continue to vary from VLIFR to IFR through the period, and visibility will like vary more from LIFR to MVFR at times. Winds will be light from the NNE at 6kts or less.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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