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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1042 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight - .
Overnight - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Isolated Thunderstorms early in the evening. Scattered showers through the night. Scattered Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.Monday - North wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - North wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 130537 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 137 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances linger along and south of M-55 Monday, especially near Saginaw Bay.

- Quiet weather expected for the first half of the long term.
Potential of wildfire smoke pushing into Michigan this Tuesday remains possible.

- Showers return this Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging currently overhead will continue to slide east over New England/northeast CONUS tonight into Monday as shortwave troughing progresses over the far northern Great Lakes. Forcing provided by this feature aloft will support a cyclone that will work across northern Ontario/James Bay tonight and Monday. An attendant weak cold front looks to sag across northern Michigan late tonight into Monday morning.

Forecast Details:

Showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight -- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to form along the aforementioned front in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe west of Lake Michigan across northern Wisconsin and the western U.P.
These showers/storms are expected to track into our area later this evening -- beginning around 7-9 PM for the eastern U.P. and around 8- 11 PM for northwest lower. This activity will make its way across the area tonight, largely exiting by early Monday morning. Weak elevated buoyancy will be in place ahead of these showers/storms (~250-500 J/kg MUCAPE) along with relatively strong deep layer shear (~40 kts 0-6 km BWD). With fumes of instability and a relatively thin elevated inflow layer, effective shear that any storms have to work with may be much less (~20 kts) -- thus, leading to low confidence in severe thunderstorm potential. A few strong storms will be possible, with the primary hazards being gusty winds and small hail. The most likely area for any strong storms will be areas along and west of I-75 south of the bridge, where SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk (1/5) for potential isolated severe storms.

Shower/storm chances linger Monday -- While mostly/partly sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s are in store for most areas north of M-72 on Monday, scattered showers and storms will be possible across areas along and south of M-55, with the best chances/coverage expected near Saginaw Bay. Uncertainty remains in how far south tonight's cold front will work across the state, leading to further uncertainty in rain/storm chances with northward extent across the CWA during the day. Current confidence is that the front will hang close enough to support aforementioned scattered showers/storms near M-55 and south. However, should the front advance further south than currently forecast, rain/thunder chances may largely be confined south of the CWA Otherwise, hazy skies may be possible across the area on Monday as lingering Canadian wildfire smoke is forecast to move overhead.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Current midlevel troughing over the Northeastern US continues to progress northward to Newfoundland. A large jet core over the southern half of the U.S continues to push height disturbances across the Great Lakes region at times continuing chances of active weather this week.

Shortwave troughing over the southwest will make its way to the Central U.S at the start of the forecast period while a second trough pivots across Ontario, leaving Michigan under a relatively weak midlevel flow pattern with quiet weather through most of the midweek. Active weather returns to the region towards the end of the work week with a third trough from the north pushing showers into the CWA

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Quiet weather expected for the first half of the long term.
Potential of wildfire smoke pushing into Michigan this Tuesday remains possible: After Mondays small system departs east of Hudson Bay, showers will be diminishing Monday night as weak flow aloft keeps weather quiet through Thursday. Main focus on Tuesday is potential Canadian wildfire smoke pushing into the CWA Not enough evidence of vertically integrated smoke to affect air quality, but a red sunrise/sunset remains possible this Tuesday.

-Showers return this Friday and Saturday: Troughing currently over the Pacific Northwest makes its way towards the Great Lakes region by the end of the work week. Latest model runs depict showers and even some chances of thunder on Saturday at times primarily driven by frontal boundaries, but too early to give details on QPF, timing, or potential impacts. At this time, no severe weather or heavy rainfall is expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered showers and a few TSRA will continue to move south of our TAF sites...except perhaps for mbL, where showers could be in the area off-and-on into Monday. With skies clearing behind the precip, there's a chance for some fog to form overnight, but will wait and see for now. Otherwise VFR.

Northerly breezes develop on Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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