Marshfield, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshfield, VT

December 8, 2023 11:47 PM EST (04:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:14AM   Sunset 4:14PM   Moonrise  3:25AM   Moonset 2:33PM 

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshfield, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 932 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

As high pressure shifts to our east, temperatures will warm overnight tonight through Saturday. A storm system will affect the area Sunday through Monday, bringing initially heavy rainfall that will transition to a heavy wet snowfall. Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night into Monday, including the Monday morning commute. Scattered power outages are possible especially over higher elevations. In addition, rivers are expected to rise sharply Sunday night, with several rivers forecast to crest in Minor Flood Stage Monday.

As of 932 PM EST Friday...Minor tweaks to temperatures and sky cover using the latest observations and model data, but overall no impactful changes needed for this update. Cloudy, dry, and milder weather will be the theme now through roughly the next 24 hours.

Previous Discussion...
Upper-level ridge will crest overhead this evening, then slide east overnight. As the ridge axis slides east, expect deep south/southwesterly flow to increase throughout the night. This will result in relatively mild overnight temperatures, especially in comparison to the previous few nights. A non- diurnal temperature trend is expected tonight, with temperatures warming through the night. Most significant overnight warming will occur over the Saint Lawrence Valley and the Champlain Valleys, where temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s by dawn. Warming will continue in earnest during the day on Saturday with breezy southerly winds especially in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 40s during the day for most of northern NY and the Champlain Valley, and into the low 40s for eastern Vermont. Southerly wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph are expected over the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley during the afternoon hours. Expect broken to overcast skies through the day as clouds spread into the area ahead of the approaching system. We're expecting dry conditions through the day Saturday, before rain moves in from the west Sunday morning.

As of 356 PM EST Friday...Flood watch for eastern Dacks into central/northern VT from 21z Sunday to 21z Monday for minor flooding forecasted by the River Forecast Center on the Otter Creek, Winooski, Ausable, and Mad Rivers.

Winter storm watch for northern New York into parts of central/northern VT from 03z Monday to 00z Tues for the potential for heavy wet snowfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized 12 to 18 inches for the central/northern Green Mtns. Scattered power outages possible, along with a hazardous Monday morning commute. It should be noted part of this watch will probably be converted to an advisory, while other areas are upgraded to a warning.

Latest trends have been for a faster frontal passage on Sunday night and a slight eastward shift in sfc low pres developing along boundary late Sunday night into Monday, which has shifted the heaviest qpf eastward, while moving the cooler air in quicker.

It should be noted, additional shifts/trends are likely and a large spread continues in our snowfall probability graphics, indicating the complexity of this event.

The challenging part of the fcst is how quickly the s/w energy phases and systems deepens, along with advection of cooler thermal profiles, interacting with deeper moisture. This system has very rich moisture and extremely strong s/w and jet dynamics, adding to the complexity.

Water vapor shows a developing and very complex mid/upper lvl trof acrs the eastern Rockies/High Plains, while potent 25h jet is rounding the trof base acrs the southern Rockies. This developing full latitude trof wl advance eastward and be located acrs the MS Valley by Sunday aftn, with deep southerly flow of abundant moisture advecting into the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. PW values surge to 1.0 to 1.25 ahead of boundary, which is 3 to 4 STD above normal for mid Dec. As potent s/w energy located over central/northern CO this aftn rounds the trof base and travels along sharpening thermal gradient low pres wl quickly deepen acrs the eastern Seaboard on Sunday Night. Helping enhance rapidly deepening sfc low pres wl be a favorable dual 25h jet structure with max vertical ascent acrs southern New England. In addition, 925mb to 700mb circulation quickly closes off acrs southern/eastern New England by Monday morning, while sub 985mb low pres continues to deepen acrs the Gulf of Maine. As low pres deepens 925mb to 850mb flow wl shift to the northwest, resulting in moderate llvl caa developing on backside of system. As the thermal gradient tightens, an narrow axis of very favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing develops acrs our central/eastern cwa, resulting in a period of moderate to heavy precip late Sunday night into Monday. The dynamical cooling should help to cool column enough for a switch to heavy wet snow from west to east acrs our region late Sunday night into Monday. The timing of phasing and interaction of moisture with cooling thermal profiles, makes for an extremely challenging snowfall fcst.

Our crnt thinking rain develops acrs our western cwa on Sunday morning and increases in areal coverage/intensity on Sunday aftn/evening with localized moderate rainfall likely. As cooler air develops, rain changes to snow acrs the dacks btwn 03-06z on Monday, 06-09z northern Greens, and 09-12z for northern CPV/central VT zns, and btwn 12z-15z for eastern/southern VT areas. This is definitely subject to change as we continue to fine tune the fcst. As colder air deepens our snow ratios wl be changing throughout the event, but wl start at 4/6 to 1 but transitioning to 10/12 to 1 on the backside. Given the heavy wet snowfall and developing backside winds, scattered power outages are possible, including parts of the Champlain Valley on Monday. In addition, with snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour.

For our storm total snowfall we continue to be on the lower side of the snowfall probability guidance due to uncertainty on moisture/thermal profiles. For example at BTV our mostly likely ranges from 2 to 8.5 inches, with our expected amount of 3 inches.
Meanwhile at Stowe our mostly likely range is 6.2 to 13.8 inches with out expected amount of 10 inches. This provides users with an idea of potential possibilities and we anticipate the cap to close as event becomes closer. For the watch we are wording as total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with localized 12 to 18 inches possible across the central and northern Green Mountains of Vermont.
Outside the watch a dusting to 4 inches possible.

Highs on Sunday range from the l/m 40s eastern VT to l/m 50s in favorable downslope areas with localized wind gusts 30 to 35 mph possible parts of the northern Dacks/western Slopes. Sunday night lows range from mid 20s summits to near 40F lower CT River Valley, with highs remaining steady or falling on Monday.

As of 356 PM EST Friday...Any lingering snow showers should taper off after midnight on Monday, with much quieter weather anticipated on Tues into Weds. Temps will range in the mid/upper 20s to mid/upper 30s on Tues, but cool back into the mid 20s to lower 30s on Weds.
Quiet wx continues for mid to late week with temps at or slightly below normal.

Through 00Z Sunday...As a warm front moves through the region amid a lot of dry air, pockets of low clouds but mainly high clouds will cover the airspace. No precipitation is expected.
Currently seeing stratus and fog at SLK/MSS/PBG/EFK, with only MSS expected to persist with IFR potentially for a few hours.
Generally from 06Z onward MVFR/VFR conditions are anticipated, trending VFR at all sites, as increasing low level flow mixes out any of the lowest cloud layers. Winds will mainly be 5-10 knots. At most sites, winds will be out of the south/south- southeast, even where they are currently calm. East-northeast winds at MSS/SLK will largely continue or diminish slightly after 06Z.


Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

A Flood Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for the eastern Adirondacks eastward into most of central and northern Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.

A strong storm system will bring widespread 1.0 to 2.5 inches of precipitation Sunday into Monday, with locally higher amounts of over 3 inches possible. Dew points surging well into the 40s on Sunday afternoon into evening will lead to significant snowmelt. NOHRSC analysis shows widespread 1-3 inches of Snow Water Equivalent outside of the immediate valleys. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt runoff will lead to sharp river rises Sunday night into Monday. Latest River Forecast Center forecasts have several rivers cresting in Minor Flood Stage Monday morning into Monday afternoon. These rivers are the Winooski River at Essex Junction and Waterbury, the Mad River at Moretown, East Branch of the Ausable at Ausable Forks, and the Otter Creek at Center Rutland.

Strong cold air advection will change rain into heavy, wet snow by Monday morning, with even the valleys changing to snow by mid day Monday. This will help mitigate the snowmelt runoff contribution. Rivers are forecast to recede late Monday through Monday night.

Record daily precipitation is possible on both Sunday and Monday. Below are current daily records that may be broken based on the current forecast:

December 10: KBTV: 1.10/1938 KMPV: 0.93/1957 KPBG: 0.69/2004 KMSS: 0.86/1953 KSLK: 0.73/1953

December 11: KBTV: 1.43/1952 KMPV: 0.96/1952 KPBG: 0.81/1952

The Burke Mountain NOAA Weather Radio, WWG-50, broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz is experiencing technical difficulties and is currently off the air. Technicians have advised that parts are needed to conduct repairs, with an estimated return to service on Tuesday, December 12th.

Please refer to local media and commercial radio for the latest weather information. The following nearby NOAA Weather Radio transmitters that can be used include Mount Ascutney on a frequency of 162.475 MHz and Mount Mansfield broadcasting on a frequency of 162.400 MHZ.

VT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>019.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ027-029>031-034.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ028-031-034-035.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 18 sm56 mincalm10 smOvercast27°F21°F80%30.20
KCDA CALEDONIA COUNTY,VT 20 sm12 mincalm10 smOvercast21°F19°F93%30.20
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 21 sm53 mincalm10 smOvercast27°F23°F86%30.17

Wind History from 1V4
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Burlington, VT,

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