Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshfield, VT
November 2, 2024 12:27 AM EDT (04:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:30 AM Sunset 5:41 PM Moonrise 8:45 AM Moonset 5:50 PM |
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Area Discussion for Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 020208 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1008 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers are possible this evening due to a reinforcing cold front, but they will be light and relatively unimpactful. High pressure builds into the region for the weekend, bringing dry weather and temperatures slightly below climatological normals.
Shower chances return for Monday but the precipitation again looks relatively light.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1004 PM EDT Friday...No changes needed with this update.
The cold front continues its trek southward this evening, and has moved into south central VT at this hour. Showers have become more scattered as expected, and should continue to wane as moisture lessens. Have kept slight chance/chance showers overnight, but precipitation could well trend more toward drizzle by early Saturday. Cloud cover still looks to remain fairly persistent overnight, so have bumped up low temperatures just a touch with this update. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.
Previous discussion...A second cold front is moving through the region this afternoon and it will push to the south by end of the evening. There are a few light showers associated with it, but with weak dynamics and dry air aloft, the showers are unimpressive. Snow levels will continue to drop this evening, so a few of these showers will likely fall as snow in the highest peaks. However, with the low liquid amounts, nothing more than a tenth or two of an inch is expected, an many peaks will likely see nothing. Winds have been strong today, with gusts reaching 20-30 mph in most places. They will lighten this evening but generally stay up overnight. The lake gusted to around 50 mph this morning, but the speeds there have been coming down quickly this afternoon and they should drop to 10-20 mph tonight. Cyclonic flow will keep the clouds around tonight, but strong cold air advection will help temperatures reach the 20s and 30s, about 30- 40 degrees colder than they were at midnight last night. Surface high pressure will build almost directly overhead tomorrow, causing the clouds to gradually scour out. They will leave the downslope areas of southern Vermont first and northern areas last. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop far tomorrow night. Lows will be in the 20s in most areas, though the coldest hollows will fall into the teens.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 334 PM EDT Friday...Sunday and Sunday night will be pretty quiet with ridge of surface high pressure over the region.
Temperatures on Sunday will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, ranging through the 40s by the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will dip into the 20s areawide with some good radiational cooling conditions before clouds start to edge into the area during the second half of the overnight. Late Sunday night towards early Monday morning precipitation associated with a surface warm front will reach our most western zones. There's a chance that this precipitation could start out as freezing rain as the surface temps will be quite cold and it will take some time for the warm air advection to push temps back above freezing.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 334 PM EDT Friday...Precipitation will continue into the day Monday, and temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Warming should be pretty quick with strong warm air advection, bringing chance for freezing rain to an end by about 10 am. Ice accumulations should be minimal as precipitation starts out quite light and warming will be quick. Light rain will continue into Monday night. There should be a break in the precipitation on Tuesday, and temperatures will warm into the 60s areawide while solidly situated in the warm sector of this system. More rain showers are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday when the cold front crosses our area. Additional showers are possible on Thursday night with some shortwave energy passing overhead. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals for Thursday and Friday.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00Z Sunday...Winds remain gusty out of the northwest at BTV and MPV as a cold front drops through the forecast area this evening. Gusts at BTV and MPV are about 20-25 knots, with sustained winds at other sites about 3-10 knots. PIREPs are reporting some rime icing aloft, and medium to good braking at the BTV airport upon arrival. Winds are expected to continue lightening at BTV and MPV sites this evening, expecting to lose gusts by about 02Z-03Z Saturday. As the cold front move through, mostly VFR conditions will become primarily MVFR conditions this evening due to lowering cloud ceilings.
Visibilities will stay 6+ for the most part as the precipitation is light. The potential exception would be SLK, which could have some snow mixing into its rain around 05Z-09Z Saturday, and IFR conditions, ceilings and/or vis, are possible to likely.
Otherwise, all sites are expected to have some MVFR ceilings around 02Z-15Z Saturday for sites that don't already have MVFR ceilings. After 15Z, quiet VFR weather will return with winds 5-10 knots out of the northwest.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance FZRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely RA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1008 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers are possible this evening due to a reinforcing cold front, but they will be light and relatively unimpactful. High pressure builds into the region for the weekend, bringing dry weather and temperatures slightly below climatological normals.
Shower chances return for Monday but the precipitation again looks relatively light.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1004 PM EDT Friday...No changes needed with this update.
The cold front continues its trek southward this evening, and has moved into south central VT at this hour. Showers have become more scattered as expected, and should continue to wane as moisture lessens. Have kept slight chance/chance showers overnight, but precipitation could well trend more toward drizzle by early Saturday. Cloud cover still looks to remain fairly persistent overnight, so have bumped up low temperatures just a touch with this update. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.
Previous discussion...A second cold front is moving through the region this afternoon and it will push to the south by end of the evening. There are a few light showers associated with it, but with weak dynamics and dry air aloft, the showers are unimpressive. Snow levels will continue to drop this evening, so a few of these showers will likely fall as snow in the highest peaks. However, with the low liquid amounts, nothing more than a tenth or two of an inch is expected, an many peaks will likely see nothing. Winds have been strong today, with gusts reaching 20-30 mph in most places. They will lighten this evening but generally stay up overnight. The lake gusted to around 50 mph this morning, but the speeds there have been coming down quickly this afternoon and they should drop to 10-20 mph tonight. Cyclonic flow will keep the clouds around tonight, but strong cold air advection will help temperatures reach the 20s and 30s, about 30- 40 degrees colder than they were at midnight last night. Surface high pressure will build almost directly overhead tomorrow, causing the clouds to gradually scour out. They will leave the downslope areas of southern Vermont first and northern areas last. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop far tomorrow night. Lows will be in the 20s in most areas, though the coldest hollows will fall into the teens.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 334 PM EDT Friday...Sunday and Sunday night will be pretty quiet with ridge of surface high pressure over the region.
Temperatures on Sunday will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, ranging through the 40s by the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will dip into the 20s areawide with some good radiational cooling conditions before clouds start to edge into the area during the second half of the overnight. Late Sunday night towards early Monday morning precipitation associated with a surface warm front will reach our most western zones. There's a chance that this precipitation could start out as freezing rain as the surface temps will be quite cold and it will take some time for the warm air advection to push temps back above freezing.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 334 PM EDT Friday...Precipitation will continue into the day Monday, and temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Warming should be pretty quick with strong warm air advection, bringing chance for freezing rain to an end by about 10 am. Ice accumulations should be minimal as precipitation starts out quite light and warming will be quick. Light rain will continue into Monday night. There should be a break in the precipitation on Tuesday, and temperatures will warm into the 60s areawide while solidly situated in the warm sector of this system. More rain showers are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday when the cold front crosses our area. Additional showers are possible on Thursday night with some shortwave energy passing overhead. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals for Thursday and Friday.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00Z Sunday...Winds remain gusty out of the northwest at BTV and MPV as a cold front drops through the forecast area this evening. Gusts at BTV and MPV are about 20-25 knots, with sustained winds at other sites about 3-10 knots. PIREPs are reporting some rime icing aloft, and medium to good braking at the BTV airport upon arrival. Winds are expected to continue lightening at BTV and MPV sites this evening, expecting to lose gusts by about 02Z-03Z Saturday. As the cold front move through, mostly VFR conditions will become primarily MVFR conditions this evening due to lowering cloud ceilings.
Visibilities will stay 6+ for the most part as the precipitation is light. The potential exception would be SLK, which could have some snow mixing into its rain around 05Z-09Z Saturday, and IFR conditions, ceilings and/or vis, are possible to likely.
Otherwise, all sites are expected to have some MVFR ceilings around 02Z-15Z Saturday for sites that don't already have MVFR ceilings. After 15Z, quiet VFR weather will return with winds 5-10 knots out of the northwest.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance FZRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely RA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for K1V4
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K1V4
Wind History Graph: 1V4
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Northeast
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Burlington, VT,
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