Marshfield, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshfield, VT

June 14, 2024 7:19 AM EDT (11:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM
Moonrise 1:11 PM   Moonset 1:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshfield, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 140746 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 346 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will help produce isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late this morning into the afternoon. Dry weather with abundant sunshine expected this weekend. Then by Monday, warm and moist air will shift back into the region.
Temperatures warming into the upper 80s to mid 90s is expected by the middle of next week. In conjunction with high dewpoints and warm overnight conditions, heat impacts are likely next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...The remnants of convection that produced straight-line winds in the region is making its way through the Champlain Valley at this time. There's also some scattered convection behind in St. Lawrence County producing a few rumbles of thunder. Overall, this activity will continue its gradual decay as it moves further east into Vermont. We should partially clear this afternoon before a cold front slides south about 10-11 AM from the international border.

Behind the overnight convection, there's a lot of mid-level dry air, and that's likely to limit the production of new convection this afternoon. However, temperatures in Vermont are likely to warm to the mid 70s to lower 80s with surface dewpoints still in the upper 50s to lower 60s. So if any afternoon convection is intense enough, it could entrain some dry air and relatively fast flow aloft to produce strong to locally severe downburst winds. The highest CAPE and shear lies across southern Vermont, and that's where a marginal risk outlook (Level 1 of 5) remains for the idea of localized, short- lived severe potential. Little to no organization is expected due to the mid-level dry air.

The front slides south about 6 or 7 PM, but a few localized showers may linger as the dewpoint boundary doesn't move south until overnight. Cool north flow should bring us into the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the warmest temperatures in the lower Connecticut River Valley. Exceptionally beautiful weather is expected on Saturday. There should be a steady north wind, low dewpoints, and temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. A nice start to what should be a great weekend. PoPs nil Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...After a spectacular day on Saturday, winds should diminish quickly after sunset. With clear skies and light winds and a 1020mb surface high building into the region, it should be a good radiational cooling night with widespread lows in the 40s, except mid to upper 30s for the sheltered colder hollows and low 50s for the immediate Champlain Valley.

Father's Day looks to be quite similar to Saturday, with lighter winds and daytime highs in the 70s. Dew points look to be a tad higher, but still generally in the 40s. Once again, with abundant sunshine and comfortable humidity, get outside and enjoy the gorgeous conditions. And if you haven't already done so, you might want to set aside some time to put in the window AC as summer heat and humidity will be making a return in a big way for much of the upcoming work week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...Let's cut to the chase. There will likely be a prolonged significant heat event for much of the upcoming work week, with many locations potentially experiencing a three or four day heat wave. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement that a 594+ Dm upper ridge will build across the southeast U.S., allowing for summer heat and humidity to be advected into our region. NAEFS/GEFS ensemble guidance shows height fields at 99th percentile to maximum of climatology for our region from Tuesday into Thursday. Indeed, some deterministic guidance even has 600 Dm ridge centered right over parts of New England. Daytime highs could approach or exceed 90 degrees each day from Monday into Thursday with little nighttime relief. Some locations, including Burlington, could see the first heatwave of the season, defined as three consecutive days of 90+ degree high temperatures. With dew points in the 60s, heat index values could be in the mid to upper 90 range, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. There are some indications that a cold front would be delayed or hung up across our far northern zones. If that happens, then Thursday could be another uncomfortably hot and humid day with heat index values once again in the mid to upper 90s range. Once again, at this time frame in the forecast cycle, the fly in the ointment would be the development of thunderstorms.

Given plenty of daytime instability and the potential for somewhere in the Northeast to be on the periphery of a building heat dome, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and ride up and over a crest of high pressure. Whether or not your location can muster three straight days of 90+ highs, or is being issued with Heat Advisories, the new experimental WPC heat risk is now highlighting the growing potential for moderate to major (level 2 to 3 out of 4) risks of heat-related impacts on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. It is not out of the question that if thunderstorms do hold off, heat index values could even push 100 degrees for part of the Champlain Valley and the St Lawrence Valley from a combination of air temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. This would result in a low but non- zero chance of extreme risk (level 4 of 4) of heat related impacts.
The extreme heat risk would be more plausible on Thursday, given the accumulated effects of prolonged heat if cooling relief does not arrive by then. Given that the major heat risk category affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, the public is encouraged to take preventative measures such as having access to AC or minimizing vigorous outdoor activities during the peak of the heat.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z Saturday...Decaying convection is producing a swath of rain over northern New York with gusty west to northwest winds ahead of the line. This feature will continue to decay over the next 3 to 6 hours as it heads east into Vermont.
Visibility reductions have generally been minimal, though KSLK is presently at 1 3/4SM. The weakening trend should lessen probability of IFR in rain going forward. LLWS remains for locations ahead of the boundary with 40 knot winds at 2000 ft agl ahead of precipitation. Decaying convection should be east of the region about 11z. South to southwest winds will remain about 5 to 11 knots with gusts 15 to 22 knots, and may be variable at times due to outflow.

After 15z, a frontal boundary will approach KMSS as it quickly descends southeast. A few showers will likely pop up in advance of the front, especially near KRUT. A quick transition from south to southwest winds to northwest is expected. Coverage of showers and storms appears low enough that VCSH is mentioned for now. Beyond 00z, winds will become 5 knots or less and trending northerly or terrain driven with clearing skies.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 19: KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 92 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 93 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 92

Record Low Temperatures:

June 16: KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 35

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19: KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 68

June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 69 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 18 sm28 minESE 0410 smA Few Clouds66°F59°F78%29.84
KCDA CALEDONIA COUNTY,VT 20 sm24 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy63°F59°F88%29.83
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 21 sm25 mincalm10 smOvercast64°F61°F88%29.79
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Burlington, VT,




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