Shelburne, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelburne, VT

June 13, 2024 5:39 AM EDT (09:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM
Moonrise 12:12 PM   Moonset 12:59 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelburne CDP, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 341 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A warm and increasingly breezy day is expected ahead of a cold front that will slide southeast Friday. Showers and possibly thunderstorms will occur along this feature late tonight into Friday. Localized stronger storms will be possible in far southern Vermont early Friday afternoon. Cool and dry air filters in for the weekend. Then by Monday, warm and moist air will shift back into the region. Temperatures warming into the upper 80s to mid 90s is expected by the middle of next week. In conjunction with high dewpoints and warm overnight conditions, heat impacts are likely next week.

As of 316 AM EDT Thursday...Conditions starting fairly seasonable this morning beneath strong surface high pressure.
Radiational cooling has been impressive in the Adirondacks, especially. The Adirondack Airport at Saranac Lake briefly fell to 37 degrees, and yet it'd still have to dip to 30 before beating today's daily record value. Today will be quiet for the most part. Increasing warmth and moisture as surface high pressure moves east will result in upper 70s to mid 80s today.
Although dewpoints will be climbing, values in the mid 50s to lower 60s won't be overly oppressive. There's no real forcing today, but it appears a capping inversion could briefly be breakable with daytime heating. There's a lot of 10 PoPs across the region, as there could be a stray shower that develop. Some fast winds will be developing aloft, and so increasing southerly gusts are expected this afternoon, perhaps even up to 30 to 35 mph in parts of the St. Lawrence Valley.

The better chances for rain will be from convection that develops across Ontario Province that then slides eastwards late this evening into the overnight hours. Showers and storms should be in a broken line approaching the St. Lawrence Valley, but loss of daytime heating and better dynamics lifting north of the forecast area should see this convection on the decline.
Late Friday morning, increasing instability should allow showers and storms to reintensify in conjunction with a vort max ejecting northeastwards. Frontogenesis is expected to take place and a cold front will strengthen as it moves across southern Vermont Friday afternoon. This will be the window when southern and central Vermont has the best chance for showers and storms early Friday afternoon. With about 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and about 40-45 knots of 0-6km shear, there may be a small window for strong to locally severe storms. However, better dynamics are going to be tied to the intensifying front that reaches peak intensity south of the region in Massachusetts and far southern New Hampshire. The intensity of storms will be conditional on clearing with the potential for lingering clouds and rain from the prefrontal trough. And so SPC's depiction of a slight risk outlook outside our forecast area and a marginal risk outlook at the southern fringe of Rutland and Windsor Counties of Vermont appear reasonable. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall covering almost the same region. Cooler and drier northwest flow will lie behind the front, with most topping out in the 70s to near 80, though possibly up to mid-80s perhaps in the Connecticut River Valley.

As of 316 AM EDT Thursday...Any lingering showers and thunderstorms exit to the east in the evening, with north winds picking up through the night as much colder and drier air mass advects into the region.
925mb temperatures fall from +13C to +7C by daybreak, leading to a spectacular Saturday with abundant sunshine and dew points in the 30s and 40s. The only fly in the ointment would be the steady north winds. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to 850mb, which would help mix down 20 to 25 mph gusts. With 850mb temperatures around +5C, highs will only top out in the 60s to near 70. The cooler apparent temperatures should be balanced out by the full sunshine on tap and the high sun angle, given that we are only several days away from summer solstice. Winds should diminish quickly after sunset.
With clear skies and light winds and a 1020mb surface high building into the region, it should be a good radiational cooling night with widespread lows in the 40s, except upper 30s for the sheltered colder hollows and low 50s for the immediate Champlain Valley.

As of 316 AM EDT Thursday...Father's Day looks to be quite similar to Saturday, with lighter winds and daytime highs in the 70s. Dew points look to be a tad higher, but still generally in the 40s. Once again, with abundant sunshine and comfortable humidity, get outside and enjoy the gorgeous conditions. And if you haven't already done so, you might want to set aside some time to put in the window AC as summer heat and humidity will be making a return during the work week. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement that a 590+ Dm upper ridge will build across the southeast U.S., allowing for summer heat and humidity to be advected into our region. Daytime highs could approach or exceed 90 degrees each day from Monday into Wednesday with little nighttime relief. Some locations, including Burlington, could see the first heatwave of the season, defined as three consecutive days of 90+ degree high temperatures. With dew points in the 60s, heat index values could be in the mid to upper 90 range, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Once again, at this time frame in the forecast cycle, the fly in the ointment would be the development of thunderstorms. Given plenty of daytime instability and the potential for somewhere in the Northeast to be on the periphery of a building heat dome, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and ride up and over a crest of high pressure. Whether or not your location can muster three straight days of 90+ highs, or is being issued with Heat Advisories, the new experimental WPC heat risk is now highlighting the growing potential for moderate to major (level 2 to 3 out of 4) risks of heat-related impacts on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. It is not out of the question that if thunderstorms do hold off, heat index values could even push 100 degrees for part of the Champlain Valley and the St Lawrence Valley from a combination of air temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to around 70. This would result in a low but non-zero chance of extreme risk (level 4 of 4) of heat related impacts. Given that the major heat risk category affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, the public is encouraged to take preventative measures such as having access to AC or minimizing vigorous outdoor activities during the peak of the heat.

Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR through the next 24 hours, but with potential for fog at KSLK and KMPV between about 06z and 10z. After 12z, south to southwest winds will gradually increase, and by 14 or 15z, most locations should be 6 to 13 knots sustained with gusts 15 to 22 knots possible, with the highest gusts at KMSS and KBTV. About 23z-01z, faster flow aloft ahead of a boundary with 40 to 45 knot winds at 2000 ft agl are likely and noted LLWS at KMSS, KSLK, and KEFK. This boundary will also bring precipitation, but lagging behind the faster flow, likely arriving near KMSS about 02z-03z then shifting east. Activity will be breaking up and so mentioned prevailing SHRA at KMSS and VCSH eastwards. Surface winds remain elevated after 00z at about 5 to 10 knots.


Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.


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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 8 sm45 mincalm10 smClear55°F52°F88%29.96
KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY 23 sm46 mincalm10 smClear48°F48°F100%29.94

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Burlington, VT,

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