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FXUS61 KBTV 111804 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 104 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front is expected to bring snow showers with minor accumulations late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Quieter weather with near normal temperatures is expected for rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1257 PM EST Monday...Have cancelled the rest of our winter storm warning as accumulating snow comes to an end and snow becomes more showery. Snow showers will continue into the evening hours, especially on northwest facing slopes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
* 1 inch per hour snowfall rates at times this morning across much of Vermont, leading to a difficult morning commute.
* Gusty northwest winds combined with heavy, wet snow could result in isolated to scattered power outages.
* Flooding is no longer a threat.
* Breezy to blustery conditions are expected for Tuesday with seasonable temperatures.

Overall, this winter storm has unfolded in line with expectations with less serious impacts. RAP analysis shows a somewhat elongated coastal low pressure center of 998mb right over the I-95 corridor in RI and eastern MA early this morning.
Beside the low pressure being weaker than expected, the 70 kt 850mb low level jet is also further east. It is quite telling that Nantucket is only gusting to 36 mph. The weaker nature of the system could be attributed to the severe outbreak across portions of the south and even hi-res guidance typically does not handle the energy transfer well. So despite PWATs across the region being in the 90th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site, it is not being maximized.
The axis of the best 700mb frontogenetic forcing is also further east as a result, currently analyzed to be roughly along a line from Albany, NY to Newport, VT. With no antecedent cold air in place, it has been quite impressive for many locations across the Champlain valley to cool from top down with dew points falling to the 30-32 range. Across the Adirondacks and spine of the Green Mountains, elevation has helped with more efficient snowfall accumulation. East of the Greens towards the Northeast Kingdom, places like Montpelier and Newport are closer to the better frontogenetic forcing so are seeing more impressive snowfall accumulation. Further to the west across the St Lawrence Valley, the precipitation rates have simply been too low to cool the boundary layer, so places like Massena did not change over to snow.

Going into the morning hours, there remains a window for a few hours where snowfall rates could be in the 0.75 to 1 inch per hour range. The aforementioned coastal low is still expected to deepen some as it lifts northeast towards downeast Maine. So the key message is that the morning commute would still be difficult, though not as treacherous as previously thought.
Mountains, especially the Adirondacks and northern/central Greens will still do very well, probably ending up with over a foot of new powder. The SLRs are also expected to gradually increase from 5-8:1 to over 10:1, with 12-13:1 range expected for the higher elevations. So with slightly lower snowfall amounts and higher SLRs, the power outage risk has decreased, with isolated to scattered outages looking more likely vs.
scattered to numerous. In addition, with the more progressive nature of the system, most of the snowfall accumulation outside of upslope snow showers are expected to conclude by the early afternoon hours. Northwest winds are still expected to increase to the 20-25 mph range, locally 30 mph by mid to late morning as cold air advection continues. With 925mb temperatures falling into the -4 to -7C range by end of the day, daytime highs will generally be in the 30s, with 20s across the higher elevation.
However, given that the steady snow is now expected to end earlier, there remains the possibility for temperatures to reach the upper 30s especially across the Champlain valley and lower Connecticut River valley towards southeast Vermont. There is also the potential for a few breaks in sunshine towards late afternoon. For tonight, the boundary layer remains well mixed enough to preclude good radiational cooling. So overnight lows should generally be in the teens, except for 20s across the Champlain and St Lawrence valley.

Tuesday looks quiet with highs rather seasonable in the mid to upper 30s. It will be quite breezy with southwest winds increasing to 20- 30 mph with locally 35 to 40 mph possible across the St Lawrence valley due to channelized flow. There should also be a mix of sun and clouds out ahead of a shortwave trough that brings snow showers to the western zones by late afternoon into the evening hours.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 438 AM EST Monday...A cold front crossing the region Tuesday night, in conjunction with cyclonic flow in the mid- troposphere, will bring scattered snow showers to our region Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday. It appears that low-level moisture and weak instability from Lake Ontario will become entrained ahead of the front across St. Lawrence and Franklin NY counties. Further, a WSWLY low-level upslope flow will aid in snowfall across the above mentioned areas. All in all, only looking for 0.5-1" snowfall for most portions of the North Country. However, 1-3" are possible across srn St.
Lawrence into southern Franklin NY county with modest enhancement due to mesoscale and orographic effects during Tuesday night. Overall travel impacts are expected to be minor.
Lows Tuesday night generally expected in the mid-upper 20s, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s with ongoing low-level CAA as winds Wednesday shift WNW at 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph at times.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 438 AM EST Monday...A relatively quiet long-term forecast period is expected. A large area of high pressure across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be our controlling weather feature Wednesday night through Friday. A cold air mass associated with this system will result in lows in the teens Wednesday night with highs 25-30F on Thursday. Air mass gradually moderates with highs in the low-mid 40s in valley areas on Friday. A weak northern stream trough and cold front brings a slight chance of a rain/snow shower Friday night, followed by highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday and Sunday. All in all, no significant precipitation systems are expected through Sunday, December 17th.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Tuesday...Most terminals are still IFR or lower as of 18z Monday. RUT is MVFR and PBG is VFR. Overall trend is for improvement to MVFR by 21-00z as snow becomes more showery and terrain focused in nature, before further improvement to low VFR towards 03z. Winds are currently northwest or west-northwest 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Winds will become lighter overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: MVFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Record daily precipitation is possible on both Sunday and Monday. Below are current daily records that may be broken based on the current forecast:

December 10: KBTV: 1.10/1938 KMPV: 0.93/1957 KPBG: 0.69/2004 KMSS: 0.86/1953 KSLK: 0.73/1953

December 11: KBTV: 1.43/1952 KMPV: 0.96/1952 KPBG: 0.81/1952

EQUIPMENT
The Burke Mountain NOAA Weather Radio, WWG-50, broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz is experiencing technical difficulties and is currently off the air. Technicians have advised that parts are needed to conduct repairs, with an estimated return to service on Tuesday, December 12th.

Please refer to local media and commercial radio for the latest weather information. The following nearby NOAA Weather Radio transmitters that can be used include Mount Ascutney on a frequency of 162.475 MHz and Mount Mansfield broadcasting on a frequency of 162.400 MHZ.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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