Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelburne, VT

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:22 PM EDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:57AMMoonset 5:01PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelburne, VT
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location: 44.38, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 161420 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1020 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure moving eastward into the Gulf of Maine will maintain mostly dry and warm conditions across the North Country today. Breezy south wind conditions will also develop as a frontal system makes its way eastward across the Great Lakes region. This frontal system will bring widespread rainfall tonight into Friday morning, with a few embedded thunderstorms anticipated. Rainfall amounts of a half to three-quarters of an inch are possible, likely highest along the international border. The weekend will be drier and trend much warmer with higher humidity and heat indices. Valley heat indices in the mid 90s are expected Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1014 AM EDT Thursday . Cloud cover is being stubborn across much of Vermont this morning. High resolution guidance from this morning depicted our mixing heights increasing this morning to help scour out some of the cloud cover but instead we have strengthened our low level inversion based on latest RAP mesoanalysis. Nevertheless, satellite does show pockets of less clouds over the Adirondacks which should shift eastward through the afternoon hours. The 12Z NAM3 is being aggressive with depicting convection across the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon but the model soundings depict any instability associated with this convection to be elevated. This should help to produce efficient rainfall but won't produce any hail or strong wind gusts as out lapse rates are beginning to trend toward moist adiabatic as we see moisture stream into the region. Overall, the forecast is in good shape and just tweaked the sky and temp forecast to reflect current trends and increased PoPs a little earlier for the St. Lawrence Valley.

Previous Discussion . Ridge of high pressure along coastal New England remains our controlling weather feature today, despite variable cloudiness expected thru the day. GOES-16 10.3-3.9um product indicates widespread low stratus across s-central and ern VT, which will be slow to mix out this morning. However, with increasing southerly gradient flow, PBL eventually mixes out bringing a period of partly sunny conditions to the North Country late morning/afternoon. Already seeing abundant mid-level clouds moving ewd from the shortwave trough over the southern Great Lakes region.

Channeled flow in the Champlain Valley results in south winds 12-20 mph around BTV, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Champlain with sustained winds of 15-25kt over the water. High temperatures this afternoon generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, and locally into the mid 80s across the St. Lawrence valley.

Progressive mid-level shortwave trough brings increasing mid- level cloudiness later this afternoon across the St. Lawrence Valley and nrn Adirondacks, followed by potential for widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms during the evening/overnight hours. Have indicated 70-90% PoPs shifting from west to east across the forecast area, highest during the pre-dawn hours Friday. Some continued indication in NAM/GFS model soundings for a swly low-level jet of 40-45kt overnight at 4-5kft, and this allows PW values to increase to 1.7-1.9". As such, could be some brief heavy rainfall with any embedded convective elements overnight. That said, MUCAPE values remain around 500 J/kg, so severe threat remains low. All in all, mid- level trough is progressive enough that we should avoid any flooding concerns, but generally looking at 0.5-0.75" basin- averaged rainfall. Currently, appears highest rainfall will be across nrn areas, and this will bring much needed rainfall to the St. Lawrence Valley, where precipitation deficits remain large during the past 2-3 months. Lows tonight generally upper 50s to mid 60s, highest in the Champlain Valley as PBL remains well-mixed (Champlain Valley winds hold 10-20 mph much of tonight).

Will see a gradual decrease in coverage of shower activity from west to east during the day Friday. That said, daytime heating may bring a renewed threat of thunderstorms, mainly central/ern VT during the early-mid afternoon hours. Should see highs on Friday from the mid-upper 70s across central/ern VT, near 80F in the Champlain Valley, and 80-85F in the St. Lawrence Valley where the best potential exists for prolonged sunshine on Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 258 AM EDT Thursday . A relatively warm Friday night due to lingering low-level moisture. Clouds decreasing overnight with the North Country waking up to 60s Saturday morning. For the afternoon, it will be quiet, but bordering on hot for Saturday. Deep-layer ridging and dry mid-level air will shift across the North Country during the day. An inversion layer positioned 8000ft above sea level. So not even elevated heating off terrain should produce convection. We should still see some fair weather cumulus dot the sky.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 258 AM EDT Thursday . Westerly flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, allowing continued warming with muggier air in place. With that, we should see better instability allowing for storms along the high terrain, along with lee-side troughing that could support convection from lake breeze interactions towards New York. Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s as 925 hPa temps climb up to 26 C. There could be a fly in the ointment. There is a shortwave trough riding over the ridge Sunday, and some guidance is suggesting convection that develops along the feature Saturday evening might seep down into the North Country as opposed to remaining north. Will continue to lean towards NBM output for the time being.

Piecemeal frontal passage takes place Sunday night into Monday. The nocturnal timing will not help us get the most out of the frontal passage, but most should see at least some precipitation. Afterwards, a longwave trough will nudge southwards over the Great Lakes region. West to northwest mid-level flow should prevent moist southerly flow from bringing oppressive heat back northwards and with thicknesses should be lower overall. 925 hPa temps remain in the upper teens Celsius. So it should still be seasonably warm (+2 to 4 F above normal), but nothing oppressive in sight for now. Anticipate a series of weak waves to ride confluent flow between the Bermuda High and the troughing centered over the Great Lakes, but there is some disagreement between global models on the finer details.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Through 12Z Friday . MVFR ceilings at RUT/MPV are lifting back to VFR with increased PBL mixing and low-level winds this morning. Generally anticipate BKN060-100 conditions across the North Country TAF locations during the daylight hours today. A notable increase in southerly gradient wind is expected this morning, and at BTV, should see winds 13G22KT for much of the daylight hours. An approaching frontal system from the west will bring widespread showers tonight, along with the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Started prevailing -SHRA at KMSS at 00Z, and gradually develop the prevailing showers ewd during the overnight period. Periods of MVFR conditions are expected with these showers. Also, with a low-level jet translating across the forecast area, expecting LLWS at SLK/MSS/MPV/PBG during the overnight hours.

Outlook .

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE. South winds will increase to 15-25 knots this morning as pressure gradient increases between a departing high pressure system across the Gulf of Maine, and a frontal system across the Great Lakes. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet by this afternoon, likely highest across the northern portion of the broad lake. May see a continuation 15-25 knot winds through much of tonight as low pressure shifts eastward into northern New York.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Banacos NEAR TERM . Banacos/Clay SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Banacos MARINE . Banacos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 18 mi83 min S 19 68°F 73°F1022.6 hPa (-6.7)
45188 22 mi98 min N 16 71°F 74°F1026 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT8 mi29 minS 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F62°F56%1023.5 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY23 mi30 minSSE 1810.00 miFair and Breezy77°F66°F71%1022.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW53N6W5N43NW6N5CalmE3E4SE6E4S3S5S3S4S11S9S9S12
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1 day agoN10N9NE8NE8N5N9N6NW7N5N3CalmE4E3SE3CalmCalmN5N7N6NW5NW63CalmCalm
2 days agoN10N8N9N8N5N4NW4CalmW4NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5NW4N5N4N6N9N7N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.