Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelburne, VT

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:54PM Monday January 25, 2021 2:49 PM EST (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelburne, VT
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location: 44.38, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 251735 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will begin to moderate today and conditions will be dry with high pressure passing overhead. A low pressure system moving through New York will bring some light snow to the area late Tuesday through midday Wednesday. Some snow showers will linger over the higher terrain into Thursday. Temperatures will drop to below seasonable norms Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 857 AM EST Monday . Quick update to the forecast for today to adjust clouds, temps and wx based on current obs. Cloud cover across northern New York is advancing quickly eastward and developing along and east of Lake Champlain in the northern Champlain Valley. Expect clouds to continue to spread and thicken with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the day from the Champlain Valley westward, while to the east and south more sun will be seen. In addition, area webcams across the Adirondacks show some flurries so have added that back into the forecast for areas where cloud cover will be thickest today. No changes made beyond today's forecast for now.

Previous discussion . Today and tonight will be relatively quiet on the weather front with high pressure slowly moving northeastward over our forecast area. Temperatures will begin to moderate starting today as the high shifts to eastward. Highs today will be in the upper teens to mid 20s . a good 10 degrees above yesterday's highs for much of the area. For tonight, still expecting some mid and high clouds to spread over the area that will limit diurnal heat loss. In addition, forecast soundings are indicating some of the higher terrain will have low clouds persisting tonight. Thus, despite high pressure over the region, thinking overnight lows will generally stay above zero, and up to the low teens in the valleys.

Temperatures will continue to moderate Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks to western NY, sending a warm front towards our forecast area. Pretty much all of the model guidance has taken a northward shift in this low pressure system that was previously expected to stay to our south. Thus, Tuesday/Tuesday night forecast has changed for the North Country, and snow lovers will embrace the change since this shift does bring some snow (albeit relatively light) into the area. Snow will spread over northern NY late Tuesday afternoon, moving north and eastward into the evening hours. See Short Term Discussion for more details on this snow event.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 235 AM EST Monday . A period of accumulating snows appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as weakening low pressure lifts into the region. Warm advection processes and modest isentropic lift through the mid- levels (around 290K) will will be the main players here, with strongest forcing setting up across southern Adirondacks into Essex County, NY and across our southern VT counties. That said, the primary dendritic snow growth zone generally lies above the area of best lift, boosting confidence that this will largely be a light snowfall event. I leaned heavily toward a model-blended solution in regard to QPF, downplaying this morning's GFS contribution with it's typically biased higher amounts under weak/modest WAA events. Steadier light snows then become more amorphous and lessen in overall coverage into Wednesday afternoon as warm thermal advective processes wane. Early snowfall total estimates from late Tuesday afternoon through noon Wednesday or so will average generally in the 1-3 inch range, with slightly higher amounts from 2-5 inches across Essex County, NY and Windsor/Rutland counties in VT. With an abundance of clouds and light near-surface winds temperatures will show a smaller than normal diurnal range through this period, averaging generally from the mid teens to lower 20s Tuesday night, and in the 20s on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 235 AM EST Monday . Lingering light snow and/or snow showers continue to wane into Wednesday night/Thursday, with best coverage across the eastern higher terrain where some minor additional accumulations will be possible. Forcing is quite weak however so nothing too notable by late January standards. The primary feature during the late week time frame will be a fairly impressive arctic shortwave trough forecast to dive southeast through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning which will usher in a much colder airmass for Friday into Saturday. With the arrival of this feature expected at night, the threat of more organized squalls appears rather low at this point, but at least some lower-end PoPs will be maintained to account for the cold frontal passage. Highs on Thursday near seasonal values in the upper teens to mid 20s in nrn NY and through the 20s in VT, then considerably colder Fri/Sat (single digits and teens).

Looking further out there is some indication that another round of accumulating snows will occur by Sunday night or perhaps on Monday as temperatures moderate ahead of a rather complex system advancing east from the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 18Z Tuesday . Persistence will be the forecast for the rest of the afternoon into the overnight hours with MVFR ceilings at all terminals. Could see some breaks to VFR through 00Z, but ceilings should largely remain MVFR with some flurries reducing vsby slightly at KSLK. After 12-14Z Tuesday, MVFR should lift and mid/high clouds will approach from the SSW. Winds through the period will be light, mainly less than 5kts except 8-10kts at KMPV this afternoon.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Duell NEAR TERM . Duell/Lahiff SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . Lahiff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT8 mi56 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F10°F57%1020.3 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY23 mi57 minSE 810.00 miOvercast22°F14°F71%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

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Last 24hrN8N8N5N4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.