Saturday, December14, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelburne, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:15PM Saturday December 14, 2019 7:47 AM EST (12:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:46PMMoonset 10:35AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelburne, VT
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.38, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 141230 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 730 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Occasional rain this morning will taper off to scattered showers with patches of fog likely as developing low pressure approaches the region. Tonight rain will change to snow showers with snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches likely from northern New York into parts of northern Vermont by Sunday afternoon. After a relatively mild Saturday, temperatures will return to normal on Sunday, along with gusty westerly winds. After a brief break on Monday, more wintry weather returns for Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 727 AM EST Saturday . Another update to increase the coverage of freezing rain across central/eastern VT thru 9AM as several highway departments indicate light freezing rain is continuing as temps hover near freezing. In addition the road pavement temps map indicates many sites near freezing, so the threat for light freezing rain and slick travel is likely thru 9AM. Good news is the combination of lighter precip and temps finally warming into the mid/upper 30s should end the threat by mid morning.

Radar shows a band of moderate to heavy rainfall lifting acrs southern/central VT this morning with VSF receiving 0.27 last hour and storm total precip approaching 1.0. Expect this band of rain to impact mainly our VT zones this morning, before rotating east of our cwa btwn 14-16z. Still anticipating some rises on local streams and rivers across central/southern VT today, with Center Rutland potentially reaching minor flood stage by this evening. Otherwise, developing dry slot will result in much less areal coverage of precip from 16z thru 21z with areas of drizzle and fog likely, especially in the mountains and colder valleys. Temps will slowly warm into the mid/upper 30s east of the Greens and mid/upper 40s in favorable se downslope areas along the western slopes. Similar type profiles are anticipated in northern NY.

Winter weather advisory has been issued for 3 to 5 inches of snow from 03z to 18z Sunday for the northern Adirondacks in New York.

Overall fcst remains on track with just minor tweaks to fine tune details as event is unfolding across our fa today into Sunday. Still anticipating an active period of weather with several mainly minor impacts anticipated, these includes period of moderate rainfall this morning, rain changing to accumulating mtn snow tonight, and gusty westerly winds on Sunday.

Water vapor shows an impressive feed of deep moisture ahead of developing negatively tilted mid/upper level trof acrs the eastern Conus. Well defined baroclinic leaf is evident on imagery too, indicating favorable jet dynamics and maturing cyclone. Unfortunately, this is a warm core system resulting in rainfall across our cwa on the front side associated with the warm moist conveyor. Sfc analysis places 1003mb low pres near Ocean City MD, with general movement toward the north today. This will help advect deep Atlantic moisture on easterly 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 45 knots into our central/eastern cwa this morning, with a period of moderate rainfall expected. A few breaking mtn waves may occur and produce very localized wind gusts up to 45 mph or so this morning along the western slopes from near Danby to Mendon to Bread Loaf to near Underhill btwn now and 12z. Have noted an isolated gust to 48 mph at Danby.

Meanwhile, have sharpen up the qpf field, utilizing the latest RAP/HRRR and High Res data, which indicates rainfall ranging from near 0.10 northern NY to 1.50" southern Greens in the favorable upslope areas. Band of favorable fgen forcing and associated deeper lift/moisture will angle northeast of fa by noon today, with well defined mid/upper lvl dry slot anticipated. This will result in decreasing areal coverage of precip, with more showery/drizzle likely, as abundant llvl moisture remains. Also, anticipate a window of lighter winds as sfc low pres tracks directly overhead, combined with saturated bl conditions will probably produce some areas of fog today. Temps mainly in the 40s areawide today.

As system transitions from rainfall associated with warm moist conveyor into backside deformation/upslope, a brief break in the areal coverage of precip is anticipated midday. Additional precip will redevelop by 21z over northern NY, associated with favorable backside deformation, good ribbon of mid level moisture and developing westerly upslope flow. Additional qpf will be heaviest acrs the SLV/northern dacks btwn 21-06z, but shifting into VT by early Sunday Morning.

As sfc low pres continues to deepen sub 980mb by 06z Sunday, a distinct wind shift occurs and a sharp cold front sweeps acrs our cwa btwn 00z-09z on Sunday. This will result in moderate caa on developing westerly winds, with 850mb 0c acrs the northern dacks by 03z and thru our VT zones by 06z, while the 925mb 0c contour is 3 hours slower. This will result in snow levels at summit level btwn 00-03z northern dacks and 03 to 06z central/northern greens, dropping to 1500 feet by 06z dacks and 09z for Greens, before reaching the valley floors by 12z Sunday. The best backside deformation lift/moisture will be slv/western dacks into the mtns of northern/central VT. Thinking snowfall will be 3 to 5 inches northern dacks with isolated amounts of 6 inches, meanwhile 2 to 4 inches is likely slv. For the northern/central Greens thinking generally 1 to 3 inches with summits from Mansfield to Jay receiving 2 to 5 inches by Sunday aftn. Strong westerly and unblocked flow will limit snowfall acrs the cpv, maybe a dusting to half inch.

Sunday will be a blustery day with temps returning to normal. A wind advisory maybe need for the downslope regions of the eastern dacks and parts of the eastern slopes of the green mtns in central/eastern VT. Soundings show very good mixing with steepening sfc to 850mb lapse rates under moderate caa. This mixing, combined with developing inversion above ridgetop will help to enhance downslope winds with localized gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range possible. Strong winds and unblocked flow will transport scattered snow showers downwind of the mountains on Sunday. Temps holding steady or falling from the 30s into 20s most areas.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 339 AM EST Saturday . Quiet forecast for Monday with mostly dry conditions and abating winds as high pressure moves overhead. A bit chilly to start the day with lows in the single upper single digits to mid teens for much of the region. We should start the day mostly clear, but high clouds should begin to filter into the region late morning to early afternoon. Expect highs in the 20s. Towards the end of Monday, snow will begin to filter north into south-central Vermont and the Adirondacks ahead of a weak surface low moving northeast from the Ohio River Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 339 AM EST Saturday . Deterministic and ensemble guidance is continuing to converge with regard to solutions for the Tuesday snow event. Run-to-run consistency has also improved, so confidence is increasing on a light snow event for the North Country. Though the flow is not highly amplified and remains progressive, weak low pressure should develop ahead of an elongated vort max in a favorable right jet entrance region. Latest forecasts indicate a modest FGEN/deformation band to the north of the feature associated with the mid-level low. Additionally, good SEPV and cross-isobaric flow at the 280K isentrope suggest a weakly stable environment and additional support for ascent respectively. The mid-level low will track right along the Adirondacks, and as GFS forecast soundings indicate, this will allow a bit of a warm nose to creep in, so there is the potential for some sleet to mix north into south-central Vermont. The event should wrap by Tuesday night. Initial estimates look to favor 2"-4" with locally higher amounts up to 5" across south-central Vermont and the Adirondacks with a 0.5"-2.5" across the remainder of the region.

Wednesday will begin mostly dry with seasonable conditions. This will be interrupted by a strong polar front with a quick moving clipper system. Latest GFS forecast suggests the dynamical tropopause will descend to 600mb as upper low descends upon the North Country. As a result, it's not surprising that the model outputs pronounced reflection down to the surface. It is still about 5 days out, but the model signals are impressive for enhanced snow showers, though the lapse rates/instability is not quite there in the model runs yet. It will be something to watch. Bitter, windy cold behind the system expected with well below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Through 06Z Sunday . A challenging and changeable next 12 to 24 hours across our aviation sites, with a wide range of flight categories. Obs indicating vfr at slk/rut and btv, while lifr prevails at pbg/mpv and mss. Have utilized mainly a persistence fcst for the first 6 hours with ifr/lifr cigs and intervals of ifr vis at pbg/mpv and mss, while slk should trend toward ifr conditions by 14z. In addition, soundings show shallow bl moisture increasing at BTV, so thinking some periods of ifr vis/cigs possible by 15z, especially as light northerly flow develops. Meanwhile, brisk 925mb to 850mb winds from the southeast should keep rut in the mvfr/vfr range during the next 6 to 12 hours with some localized gusts to 25 knots possible. As sfc low pres tracks directly overhead, a well defined dry slot will limit areal coverage of precip late develops this morning/early aftn, with lighter wind profiles, but plenty of lvl moisture may result in widespread ifr/lifr conditions at most sites. As sfc low tracks to our northeast by this evening, winds shift to the west and increase, with any rain changing to snow, especially at slk with ifr vis/cigs likely. As winds shift to the west, pbg/btv/rut should see increasing flight conditions.

Outlook .

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

HYDROLOGY. Storm total rainfall through Sunday will range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches, with the heaviest amounts generally along and south of I-89 across eastern and southern VT. Some of this precipitation will fall in the form of snow, especially across the Saint Lawrence Valley into the northern Adirondacks. Given saturated soils from recent wet spell, some mainly in bank rises are expected. The Otter Creek at Center Rutland may approach minor flood stage at crest Saturday night. There is a lower chance of action stage being reached on the Mad Rivers. We will continue to monitor, but the flood threat appears marginal at this time.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ029>031.

SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . Taber SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Taber HYDROLOGY . Taber/Banacos


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT8 mi54 minSSE 410.00 miLight Rain44°F39°F85%1005.4 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY23 mi55 minNNW 43.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F35°F97%1006 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last 24hrS14
G24
S16
G22
S14
G22
S12
G26
S16
G21
S12
G21
S9S12
G18
S8S7SE6SE4E6SE4SE4SE3S3S5S4CalmCalmNW3CalmSE4
1 day agoW7NW11
G16
W9NW7NW6N4E33S3E4SE7S7S9S9S13S11
G18
S11S14
G24
S15
G31
S16
G26
S16
G23
S19
G30
S19
G26
S12
G20
2 days agoNE5N3SE4S6SW10S10S12S11S14
G17
S9S11SW11
G23
W12
G22
W14
G25
NW17
G28
W13
G25
W15
G23
W13
G18
W10
G18
W6W9
G17
W14
G20
W14
G22
W10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.