Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 5:36 PM   Moonset 3:43 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS61 KBTV 202346 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 746 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A quiet and mild night is expected across the North Country with temperatures falling back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A few showers are possible across northern New York toward sunrise, but addition scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated on Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms will be capability of small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures warm well into the 80s on Tuesday with even warmer temperatures on Wednesday before cooler air arrives for late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 741 PM EDT Monday...The cumulus that developed during the daytime are quickly eroding this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Some high clouds are streaming in from the west and should continue to do so overnight, so skies should remain partly cloudy. Temperatures are beginning to drop off but they will generally stay above the crossovers so fog development should be limited compared to previous nights.
Previous discussion follows...

Mid/upper lvl ridge is located over the Mid-Atlantic States, while westerly flow aloft prevails acrs our cwa. Some shallow instability driven cumulus clouds have developed over the trrn, but given the lack of forcing and deep layer moisture, just an isolated shower is possible. Overall, a quiet and mild night is anticipated with temps slowly cooling back into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Have noted a complex of storms developing near Detroit, MI into the northern Ohio Valley, while is tracking to impact our western NY cwa btwn roughly 10z-14z Tues. This is associated with secondary warm frnt type feature and have placed low chc pops to cover the potential for showers and a few rumbles of thunder.

Tues/Tues night, expecting a fairly active period of wx with scattered showers/thunderstorms and a few stronger to locally severe storms possible. SPC Day 2 Outlook continues with marginal risk for severe, which looks reasonable when examining sounding and pre- environmental conditions. Synoptic scale pattern shows weak embedded convectively induced 700-500mb s/w energy traveling along northern periphery of mid/upper lvl ridge impacting our cwa btwn 18z-00z Tues. This energy wl be associated with a ribbon of enhanced 700mb winds of 30 to 40 knots and modest height falls.

Pre-storm environmental parameters suggest a pulse type convective mode, with maybe a few embedded bowing segments, but organized convective wl be limited given the unidirectional wind profiles, weak forcing, and 0 to 6 km shear values near 30 knots. Sfc based CAPE values should increase to 1500-2000 J/kg, supported by highs well into the 80s and sfc dwpts in the lower/mid 60s, which should be reachable with MSS already 63F this aftn. Sounding data shows steep 0 to 3 km lapse rates and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, supporting the idea of localized gusty thunderstorm winds associated with the stronger convective elements. In addition, given the EL near 200mb and rather large CAPE profiles, the stronger updrafts cores wl be capable of some very localized near severe hail. Have gone ahead and placed marginal severe wording for small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall in fcst btwn 18z-00z Tues. Given the potential vertical development of convection and pw values btwn 1.20 and 1.40, localized heavy down pours wl be possible, but potential for flash flooding is minimal given anticipated storm motions of 20 to 25 knots. Progged 925mb temps are a degree or two warmer with values btwn 22-23C, supporting highs well into the 80s most locations. As always, some upstream convective debris clouds could result in slightly cooler temps in some locations. A warm and muggy night is on tap for Tues night with convection dissipating by mid evening. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Some patchy fog is possible, especially areas that get rainfall on Tues.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures is expected on Wednesday as upper level ridging continues to build into the region. With 925mb temperatures around +25C, daytime high temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 80s, with 90s possible in the broader valleys. Heat index values are expected to stay below Heat Advisory criteria,but since it is so early in the season there may be increased impacts due to lack of acclimatization, especially for heat sensitive individuals; be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, limit outdoor activities if possible. Water temperatures across the region remain chilly, with Lake Champlain near 60 degrees, so use caution and exercise cold water safety if you plan on venturing out on local waterways.

Wednesday morning will feature mostly dry weather, but there might be an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon given the warm temperatures and an embedded shortwave providing enough forcing. Chances of precipitation will increase heading into Wednesday evening as a cold front approaches from the west. There is still a little bit of uncertainty regarding the timing of the frontal boundary, but it still looks like Wednesday evening through Thursday will see some showers with embedded thunderstorms. The severe potential looks a little weaker with this latest guidance, with the best instability to the east, so while there will be some embedded thunderstorms associated with the front, but the severe potential is limited. Temperatures on Thursday will still be on the warm side, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s based on the progression of the surface front.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...A period of seasonable temperatures and drier weather are expected across the region heading into Memorial Day weekend as ridging builds overhead in the wake of a cold front.
Temperatures will be quite pleasant, especially after the recent heat, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints only in the 40s. Overnight lows will be seasonable as well, with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some chances for showers return towards the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00Z Wednesday...All terminals are currently VFR and they should stay that way through the evening. Patchy fog will develop in parts of the region later tonight. There is a chance that fog develops at SLK or MSS but it seems unlikely at this point. Any fog would lift shortly after sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region tomorrow afternoon. The heaviest storms should cause visibilities to briefly lower to MVFR or IFR. However, most of the time during the day will be dry and VFR. Winds are generally light and southerly and they should generally remain that way throughout the TAF period. The exception will be in and around any storms where strong convective wind gusts may occur.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 93/1977 KMPV: 90/1994 KMSS: 89/1977 KSLK: 91/1911

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 70/1911 KPBG: 65/1975 KSLK: 63/1921

May 23: KPBG: 65/1964

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,