Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelburne, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 127 AM EDT Saturday...Minimal adjustments needed with this update. Thunderstorms have exited the region, with some patchy fog beginning to develop under mostly calm winds and clearing skies. Overnight temperatures will continue to remain on the milder side, only dropping into the 50s and 60s.

Previous discussion...Moderate CAPE profiles are supportive of scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Coupled with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80 with dew points in the upper 50s to 60s, and a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Best chance of that occurring this afternoon/early evening will be towards the Champlain Valley of New York and across southern Essex County, NY and Addison/northern Rutland Counties of Vermont. An MCV moving through Essex County, NY could be just the forcing edge to kick off a stronger cell, but so far storms have been fairly tame. A few have likely produced brief periods of small hail and some modest wind gusts, but by and large, storm tops have been low lacking a stronger forcing mechanism outside of decent instability and general troughiness aloft. Should something get going, it could become long-lived and feed off unseasonably hot temperatures - BTV has hit 86 - and develop into a broken line.
Showers/thunderstorms track east through the evening with chances decreasing overnight as weak forcing exits northeastward. Some pockets of fog will be possible tonight where low clouds are more limited and rainfall occurs this afternoon/evening. Moisture/clouds will likely keep temperatures moderated tonight for most spots, similar to this morning's lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

The next series of troughs will roll through the North Country Saturday bringing decent lapse rates aloft and increased shear.
Projected hodographs, moderately high CAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range, and continued warmth will support better chances of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. As such SPC has our region under a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms. Given tall CAPE profiles and elevated PWATs, localized heavy rainfall with these thunderstorms could produce flash flooding should multiple cells go over the same area. Cloud cover will temper high temperatures tomorrow, but still looking at upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 304 PM EDT Friday...An active, but largely unimpactful stretch of weather is then expected for Saturday night into the Sunday night time frame. Our area will lie on the southern flanks of a synoptic- scale polar longwave trough centered across northern Quebec with rather brisk west-northwest flow aloft. Two distinct shortwave features remain on track to cross our area during the period, mainly focused in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame. Seasonably cool boundary layer thermal profiles support mainly snow showers or light snows with these features, though their quick movement and limited moisture support only light accumulations of 1-3" across elevated terrain and perhaps the SLV, and an inch or less in the Champlain/CT River Valleys. Low temperatures range through the teens to around 20 Saturday night with corresponding highs on Sunday in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Then slightly milder Sunday night with generally 20s expected.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 304 PM EDT Friday...The broad theme for Sunday into next week is one of much cooler and unsettled weather as a series of upper lows affect the region. A series of rex blocks, initially across the far North Atlantic and then across south central Canada by the middle of next week will keep flow more bogged down across our region through the period. Sunday into Sunday night looks quite inclement with periodic showers and cool northerly flow, which likely persist across portions of northern VT into Monday. Brief drying occurs by Tuesday into the first part of Wednesday, before the next upper closed low trundles into the area with a widespread showery regime returning for the back half of the work week. Given cooler temperatures and a largely stable boundary layer, the threat for severe weather is essentially nil. Daily highs to largely range through the 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the upper 30s through the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z SUNDAY...Patchy fog and mist developing across the region will lead to variable flight conditions for the next several hours. KSLK and KMPV are the most likely to see IFR and LIFR conditions overnight, with KPBG likely experiencing some MVFR and possible IFR restrictions to visibility over the next several hours. All other terminals are currently VFR and will likely remain VFR for the next several hours. Towards the morning, the next round of showers and possible thunderstorms arrive, which may bring some MVFR ceilings to most terminals.
Within any heavier showers, brief visibilities restrictions can be expected. Winds will continue out of the southwest and could gust 15-20 knots for some, higher in thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.