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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 1128 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

ANZ005 1128 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A cold front approaches the waters Tue. High pres crosses the region Wed into Thu, then begins to exit across the maritimes Fri. An occluded front approaches Sat.

FXUS61 KCAR 030332 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1132 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front approaches tonight and stalls across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure crosses the region Wednesday into Thursday, then begins to exit across the Maritimes Friday. An occluded front approaches Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
11:30 PM Update...Convective showers with some embedded thunderstorms are riding along the edge of the front, crossing the St. Lawrence Valley and now approaching the western border of Aroostook County. They are weakening, but holding strong enough that scattered showers with isolated thunder will likely brush the north. Raised pops just a bit. Raised temps north, and lowered temps a bit in the quieter air across southern sections.

Tonight... Area will undergo decent warm advection aloft tonight as surface high pressure shifts to our south and a cold front approaches from the north. Decent westerly low level jet 1,000-4,000 ft off the surface will be moving through the area, strongest in the north. This will allow for a well mixed atmosphere and don't expect any fog, with low temperatures warmer than previous nights with low to mid 50s. Went on warm side of guidance for lows. Another challenge tonight is a potential old MCS making it into Northern Maine toward late evening or early morning hours. CAMs and other models are doing a very poor job initializing the MCS presently, with it presently extending further south than models have in western Quebec southeast of James Bay. All this said, the MCS is pretty weak with only a little lightning left, and if it does make it to far Northern Maine, think it will be just showers riding on weak instability aloft. Went with 20-30% PoPs for extreme Northern Maine (and dry elsewhere), which is a bit higher than most guidance indicates, as we adjusted for the poor model initialization of the southern extent of the convection. Still anticipate the better chances of any leftover showers being north of our border tonight.

Tuesday...
Dry cold front slides south into extreme Northern Maine around late morning, then moves to central portions of the forecast area in the afternoon and stalls. The front will keep temperatures from getting too warm in the north, but Downeast up to Millinocket looks quite warm ahead of the front with highs around 80. Low level winds will be out of the west which will help temperatures rise since there will be a limited onshore component. Dewpoints will be on the rise with upper 50s to mid 60s, stickiest Downeast. Not much deep moisture to work with though, and generally expecting dry conditions Tuesday, though can't rule out an afternoon shower in the vicinity of the stalled front over central portions of the area. Decent amount of CAPE over Downeast in the warmer airmass, but looks like the CAPE will go unrealized as a cap should prevent any convection from forming.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A stalled frontal boundary will remain across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, along with surface/upper level ridging.
Surface/upper level ridging persists Wednesday night into Thursday.
Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region Tuesday night through Thursday. Could also have patchy fog both Tuesday/Wednesday nights. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Wednesday/Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The surface/upper ridge gradually exits across the Maritimes Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure lifting across the Great Lakes will draw a cold/occluded front toward western New England Friday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies Friday night along with a chance of rain showers. The cold/occluded front begins to cross the region later Saturday while low pressure lifts along the front. Expect increasing rain chances in advance of the front Saturday. The front crosses the region Sunday with rain. A low level jet will also cross the region in advance of the front later Saturday through Saturday night with gusty winds. The front exits across the Maritimes Sunday night, with rain tapering to showers in the wake of the front. Upper level low pressure will remain west of the region Monday. However, a disturbance rotating around the upper low could lift across the region. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies Monday, along with a slight chance/chance of showers. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels in advance of the front Friday/Saturday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Sunday, with slightly below normal level temperatures Monday.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
605pm update...VFR tonight with MVFR cigs north of HUL tomorrow morning as a weak front sags southward. Slight chance of thunder in vicinity for FVE later tonight. LLWS is still a threat tonight.

NEAR TERM: Easily VFR today through tonight. Variable mainly light wind this afternoon, becoming SW tonight around 5 kts.
LLWS likely at most terminals tonight, though greatest LLWS will be in the north. Brief rain showers possible at terminals north of HUL overnight, but still expect VFR even if showers do occur.

Tuesday will be generally VFR, though MVFR ceilings likely from PQI north roughly 14-17z. W/NW wind 5-10 kts.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night through Wednesday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog Tuesday night. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, late. South winds around 5 knots.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early then VFR/MVFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR early, then IFR/LIFR. South winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...IFR/LIFR early, then VFR/MVFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. A chance of showers.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Increasing rain chances.
South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Low level wind shear possible.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Conditions below small craft through Tuesday. N breeze shifting to the W, generally 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 ft.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday night through Thursday. Patchy fog Wednesday night/Thursday.

CLIMATE
Record or near record highs are possible Tuesday from Millinocket down to Bangor. Here are the current record highs for those sites for Tuesday:

10/3: Millinocket 78F in 1916, forecast is for 79F Bangor 77F in 2000, forecast is for 80F

Weather records began in 1925 at Bangor, and in 1903 in Millinocket.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bar Harbor
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Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT     12.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     12.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
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Bar Harbor, Frenchman Bay, Maine, Tide feet

Eastern Point Harbor
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Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     11.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     12.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     -1.10 feet Low Tide
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Eastern Point Harbor, Frenchman Bay, Maine, Tide feet

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