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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 424 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain early this afternoon. Rain likely late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Snow after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain and snow, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain and snow likely. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow showers in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ005 424 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pressure builds to the north through Tuesday as a series of coastal lows pass well to the south. High pressure then builds in through Thursday.

FXUS61 KCAR 030928 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 428 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds to the north through Tuesday as a series of coastal lows pass well to the south. High pressure then builds in through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
The axis of the deep layered ridge exits to this afternoon. This is a bit slower than previously forecast, as a result have slowed down the onset time for precipitation today, consistent with the high resolution models. Generally only expect light precipitation to develop from Bangor on to the south/southeast.
It should be a rain/snow mix changing to snow, except for right at the immediate coast where it should be just rain. Highs today should range from the upper 20s to around 40.

A northern stream shortwave trough approaches tonight, then crosses the area Monday morning. This will support the main energetics for the storm transferring from the interior low to the west to the coastal low tracking from south of Cape Cod to south of Nova Scotia tonight, then on into the southeastern Maritimes on Monday. This low track is a tad farther S than previously forecast, as a result the axis of heaviest precipitation has shifted a bit farther to the south. This also serves to allow for more low level cold air to be pushed farther south from the damming high building in across southern Quebec.
With slightly cooler temperatures now forecast, have increased snow ratios a a bit. As a result have converted the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for 4-10 inches of snow, and issued winter weather advisories across N Aroostook (3-7 inches of snow) and coastal Downeast (up to 4 inches of snow - with highest amounts mainly along/N of US 1). With the timing of the shortwave trough, it will result in the heaviest snowfall across the region during the Monday morning commute. Localized snowfall rates of around an inch to an inch and a half an hour are possible, especially across the Central Highlands in areas experiencing upslope enhancement. For temperatures blended the 25th percentile of the NBM with the current forecast, then blended in 50% of CONSRAW with that blend for Sunday night through Monday morning. This accounts for wet-bulbing not typically captured by non-high resolution model guidance.

With the coastal low passing well to the south, mainly coastal Downeast will experience any stronger winds, with gusts of 30-35 mph expected mainly late tonight and early Monday morning. Wind gusts quickly diminish by the time you reach the Bangor/Penobscot Region.

Lows tonight should range from the lower 20s to the mid 30s (near the immediate coast). Highs on Monday should be near to a few degrees below normal, ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures might not rise much, if at all along the immediate coast on Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Leftover snow showers, possibly mixed with some rain at the immediate coast, will gradually come to an end for most Monday night as the low pressure system pulls away from the area.
However, an isolated snow shower will be possible near Bangor and Downeast through the night. Any additional snow accumulations Monday night are expected to be less than 1 inch.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy across the area Monday night, but some breaks in the overcast are possible in the North Woods late. Low temperatures will be in the teens at and north of Katahdin, with 20s to the south.

A cold and dry day for much of the area on Tuesday. With a weak upper trough moving through, cannot totally rule out an isolated sprinkle or flurry at the coast. Highs will be in the 20s for most, with low 30s in the Bangor region and at the immediate coast. High pressure begins to build into the region Tuesday night. Skies are not expected to totally clear, but winds will drop off, especially in the North. With snow cover expected for much of the area, expecting lows in the single digits above zero north of Katahdin, with teens south of there.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure moves eastward across the area Wednesday through Friday Models disagree on whether the high crests over the area Wednesday night or Thursday night. This would determine which night has the greatest potential for radiational cooling across the region. Regardless, dry conditions and below normal temperatures are expected through Friday. The high moves off to the east next weekend, leading to moderating temperatures.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR to get started at southern terminals with patchy IFR becoming MVFR at northern terminals. Southern terminals should improve to MVFR this morning (moderate confidence in this). IFR or lower conditions then build at southern terminals this evening, with all snow possibly mixing with rain at KBHB by late afternoon. IFR conditions should reach KHUL by mid evening. For now am forecasting only MVFR this evening from KPQI on north, however some IFR conditions at KPQI cannot be completely ruled out towards the end of the TAF period.

SHORT TERM: Late tonight...IFR or lower from KHUL on south, MVFR at KFVE at KCAR and MVFR with a chance of IFR at KPQI depending on exactly how far N the heavier snow gets. NE winds G15-25KT likely at southern terminals, strongest at KBHB

Monday...MVFR with occasional drops to IFR/LIFR In heavier snow, especially from KBGR up through KHUL Monday morning. NE winds G15-20KT likely at KBHB.

Mon Night...Mainly MVFR with brief periods of IFR in -SN and -SHSN. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tuesday...Mainly MVFR cigs with low stratus. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tuesday night...MVFR improving towards VFR. N winds 5-15 kts.

Wednesday - Thursday...Mainly VFR with MVFR/IFR possible each morning with lower cigs. NW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: still on track for winds to increase to SCA levels on the coastal ocean waters by mid afternoon and remain at SCA levels through Monday, so no change to the headlines there. On the intra-coastal waters, it now appears that gusts should reach SCA levels late this afternoon and tonight, so have expanded the SCA there. Conditions on the intra-coastal waters should be below SCA levels on Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas may remain close to Small Craft Advisory criteria on the outer waters Monday night into early Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters during that time. Winds and seas subside below SCA levels on all waters later Tuesday, and remain there through Wednesday night.
Winds may increase to Small Craft Advisory levels on the outer waters again on Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Monday evening for MEZ003>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Monday for ANZ052.

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Bar Harbor
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Sun -- 02:43 AM EST     9.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:44 AM EST     2.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:48 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:51 PM EST     10.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:19 PM EST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:51 PM EST     Moonrise
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Bar Harbor, Frenchman Bay, Maine, Tide feet

Salsbury Cove
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Sun -- 02:53 AM EST     9.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM EST     2.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:48 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:54 PM EST     10.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:27 PM EST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:52 PM EST     Moonrise
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Salsbury Cove, Maine, Tide feet

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