Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bar Harbor, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
6:10 AM Update...Forecast remains on track at this time. Added a Climate section to the AFD to discuss potential for record high temperatures today in some locations.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will move off east of the area today. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will drag a cold front towards Maine. Expect southerly winds to increase today ahead of the front. Gusts to 20-30 mph will be possible by this afternoon. The air mass over the region will continue to be quite warm, with 850mb temperatures in the 13-15C range. This will support high temperatures in the lower to perhaps mid 70s from Interstate 95 north and west. The southerly winds will keep Interior Downeast a bit cooler, but still well into the 60s. Coastal Downeast will be cooler still, with 50s at the immediate coast, and around 60 degrees just inland.

The cold front will will begin to cross the area late this afternoon into early this evening. This will bring the threat of rain showers, with the highest chances further north after sunset. Despite the timing of the front, soundings indicate that there will be enough instability for a few thunderstorms north of Katahdin. Southerly winds will likely keep the atmosphere stable enough to preclude thunderstorms further south. The lack of daytime heating should prevent any stronger thunderstorms from developing. Temperatures will remain quite mild until the frontal passage, then begin to drop quickly.
Expect 40s north and 50s south by daybreak Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The pressure gradient will increase Wednesday with the departing low strengthening in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building in from the west. Deceded to blend in the NBM 75th percentile over land to account NBM low bias with northwesterly winds. Thus, expect wind gusts 25-35 mph for the entire area, with gusts up to 40 mph in the higher terrain. Strong cold air advection will hold temperatures in the 40s on Wednesday from Moosehead Lake and Katahdin north and west. Downsloping flow will allow Bangor and Downeast to warm into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

The high builds in closer Wednesday night, resulting in clearing skies and diminishing winds. Not expecting the high to crest over the area until Thursday, so full decoupling is not forecast. Still felt confident enough to go a bit below NBM guidance for lows Wednesday night. Lows will be near or below freezing from the Central Highlands northward. Bangor and Downeast will see lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Thursday will see dry conditions and sunny skies. High temperatures will make a strong recovery. Most places are forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. The next low pressure system will begin to approach Thursday night with chances of rain showers in western areas late.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The aforementioned low pressure system will track northwest of Maine on Friday. This will bring some rain and showers on Friday, with the steadiest rain over the North. Showers are forecast to become less numerous Friday night as the low pulls away. Models then show another wave of low pressure tracking over or just east of the area Saturday into Saturday night.
Cooler and drier behind this system Sunday and Monday, though an isolated rain shower is still possible.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals through the day today. MVFR at Aroostook terminals late tonight, with VFR at BGR and Downeast terminals. -SHRA at Aroostook terminals and VCSH at BGR and Downeast terminals after 22-00z this evening. VCTS at Aroostook Terminals this evening into late tonight. S winds 10-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds becoming NW late tonight. LLWS after 22-00z at all terminals through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Nw winds 10-20 kts, gusting 25-35 kts.

Wednesday Night...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts early, diminishing late.

Thursday...VFR. Calm air followed by a light S wind late.

Thursday night...VFR, lowering to IFR late in RA. Light S wind.

Friday and Friday night.. MVFR/IFR in RA. S wind 5-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts.

Saturday.. MVFR in -SHRA, improving late. S wind becoming W in the afternoon 5-10 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for tonight. Latest guidance has widespread southerly wind gusts to 35 kts on the outer waters tonight. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the intra- coastal waters this afternoon through tonight for southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph. Winds diminish to SCA levels on the outer waters towards daybreak Wednesday and shift NW. Wave heights will build up to 8 feet on the outer waters and 6 feet on the intra-coastal waters by tonight.

SHORT TERM: Northwesterly winds are forecast to diminish below SCA levels on the intra-coastal waters Wednesday morning. Winds will likely remain at or above SCA criteria on the outer waters until Wednesday afternoon. Wave heights subside to sub-SCA conditions by Wednesday evening. Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria Wednesday night through Thursday night. Winds and seas could build back above SCA levels once again on Friday.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures are possible today, Tuesday April 29th, in a few locations in Aroostook County. Records are unlikely to be broken further south where record highs are warmer.

April 29th Record High Temperatures (Forecast):

Caribou (72F) 75F in 1986 Houlton (71F) 73F in 1984 Millinocket (74F) 84F in 1911 Bangor (71F) 85F in 1935



CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.