Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winter Harbor, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
The vertically stacked trof will continue to progress towards the state today. Vorticity models indicate a vort max over the Gulf of Maine which will help push showers across the waters and coastal Downeast today. This system will become stagnant which will slow the progression of the trof. High res models are in disagreement with the timing of the rain moving into the western border, but majority is expected by the afternoon. Upper air model soundings show instability increasing in the afternoon with the boundary ahead of the trof. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be confined to the north with isolated thunderstorms possible in the Central Highlands.

For tonight, the axis of the trof will move across New England and into the state. Instability should stick around in the north with the surface boundary providing the lift. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the north. Though cloud cover will keep temps mild through the night, calm winds and a moist boundary layer will help with the develop patchy to areas of fog across the region.

For Friday, the boundary will move across the state. The main concern will be the increasing CAPE, steepening lapse rates, and increasing bulk wind shear by the afternoon. As of this update, SPC has areas north of the Central Highlands in a marginal threat for strong thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The upper trough affecting us through the end of the week will be lifting out to the northeast Friday night as weak surface high pressure and upper level ridging move in. This will bring a partly cloudy and tranquil night with patchy fog overnight. High pressure will remain over the area on Saturday bringing a partly to mostly sunny and tranquil day. Surface high pressure will begin to slide east of our area Saturday night. Moisture wrapping into the region behind the high will bring a partly to mostly cloudy night over the south. Some low clouds may begin to move in from the ocean. Northern areas will remain drier and therefore mostly clear.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure will slide to our southeast on Sunday as a broad but shallow upper trough begins to push in from the west. We will still be under the influence of an upper ridge over the area which will bring a partly sunny and very warm day. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms may begin to push into far western areas late in the day. Sunday night will then become mostly cloudy as moisture advects into the area in the return flow behind high pressure Sunday night. The surface high will continue moving away to the west on Monday as the weak upper trough slowly pushes in. This will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly across western and northern parts of the region. A chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue Monday night with a weak shortwave sliding across the area. Very weak surface high pressure and upper ridging will follow for Tuesday bringing a partly sunny day on Tuesday. However, moisture lingering in the low and mid levels will result in a continued low chance for showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the north. Upper ridging building over on Wednesday will bring a mostly sunny and very warm day. Inland highs should reach the mid to upper 80s by mid-week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight with possible MVFR/IFR in PQI & HUL due to patchy fog this morning. MVFR this afternoon in rain showers.

BGR...Mainly VFR today, then IFR/LIFR tonight in patchy fog.

BHB...Conditions quickly dropping to IFR/LIFR this morning in fog. Then improving to MVFR for the rest of today. IFR/LIFR returns tonight in fog and low cigs.

Light SE winds becoming 5-10 kts this afternoon. Then back to light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM: Friday night...VFR, except possibly briefly dropping to MVFR or IFR in patchy fog late. Wind light and variable.

Saturday...VFR. Light S wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR south late. Light S wind.

Sunday.. MVFR or IFR south, becoming VFR. VFR north. Light S wind.

Sunday night.. MVFR dropping to IFR in low clouds. Light S wind.

Monday.. MVFR becoming VFR over the north late morning and VFR south during the afternoon. Light SW wind.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds will be light and seas around 2 ft late this week and through the weekend into early next week. Some patchy fog and mist may limit visibilities, especially early next week as humidity rises.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.