Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 2:07 PM   Moonset 3:52 AM

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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 636 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Tonight - E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 3 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 7 seconds. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 3 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely in the morning. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 13 seconds. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ005 636 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - High pres will drift east of the waters today. An occluded front approaches later Fri, crosses the region Sat, then exits across the maritimes Sun. High pres builds toward the region Mon.

FXUS61 KCAR 181041 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 641 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure crosses the region today and moves east of the area by Friday. An occluded front approaches later Friday, crosses the region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure builds toward the region Monday into Tuesday. A frontal system approaches the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
641 AM Update: Current satellite imagery shows that aside from thin cirrostratus stretching from the North Woods down through coastal Hancock county, sunny skies are in abundance this morning across the forecast area. Only minor adjustments made to the previous forecast based on observations as the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion: High pressure remains over the area today, which will slow the progression of the next low pressure system approaching from the southwest. Subsidence under this high pressure will finally act to keep winds fairly light through the day. Since there is a low approaching from the southwest, cloud cover will return through the day from the west, especially at mid to upper levels. That said, given the synoptic setup, mid to upper level clouds will likely be thin through most of the day. High temperatures will lift into the mid 50s across much of the forecast area. The immediate coast is likely to see a sea breeze this afternoon due to light winds and clear skies along the coast, which will limit how warm it gets and may result in a localized line of cumulus clouds.

Tonight, skies will continue to cloud over, such that even though winds will approach calm once more, full radiational cooling will be limited, and lows will only fall into the low to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface and upper level ridging remains over the area Friday morning
The ridging moves east later Friday
allowing increasing clouds ahead of a weakening occluded front. Before the clouds increase, warm advection will push highs towards the mid to upper 50s across northern zones. 925mb temps will increase towards 5C to 6C. Onshore southerly winds will keep highs closer to 50F along the coast. Southerly winds will become increasingly gusty later in the afternoon with speeds up to 25 mph.

The best forcing with the occlusion will pass well to the north and west of the area and current expectations for precipitation range from nothing to just a few hundreds of an inch. The front may be reinvigorated in the Gulf of Maine later in the night as a separate shortwave propagates eastward from the Great Lakes region. There is some uncertainty in how this energy is manifested over the Downeast region on Saturday. The latest ECMWF strengthens the occlusion boundary and causes a fairly rainy Saturday for coastal Washington County. Other guidance such as GFS/NAM/GEMS strengthens the occluded front south of the area, but surface-based instability develops Saturday afternoon from Bangor towards the Downeast region as a cold front sweeps down from the north and a cold upper trough provides strong cooling aloft. This latter scenario could generate some fairly good late afternoon downpours Downeast and maybe even a thunderstorm or two with graupel.

Highs on Saturday will reach the mid to upper 50s for most of the area. The coast will be cooler with another day of onshore winds. Cannot rule out a few 60F readings around Bangor.

Much colder and drier air sweeps into the area behind the cold front for Saturday. Any remaining shower activity will end in the Downeast region. Temperatures will drop towards the mid 30s with clearing skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Expect shortwave ridging over the area on Sunday. The air mass looks too dry to support much in the way of precip, but there is sufficient moisture in the H8 layer to support cumulus fields above a very deep mixed layer. Given this expectation, increased highs a bit above guidance, dropped dew points below guidance and increased wind gusts.

A dry northern stream cold front to move swiftly across the area on Monday with a reinforcing shot of cool and dry Canadian air.
Afternoon dew points may drop into the low teens in Aroostook County. Once again, expect a very deep mixed layer behind the front with corresponding actions on hi temps, winds and dew points.

The cool Canadian high pressure behind the front and decreasing winds/clouds will likely produce lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Monday night.

The high will remain in control over the area on Tuesday, but some air mass moderation will push hi temps back towards the mid to upper 50s. Expect a trend towards increasing clouds in the afternoon ahead of the next frontal system.

Things become much more complicated for Tuesday night into Wednesday. A clipper system arrives from the Great Lakes. Most of the latest guidance suggests the emergence of a strong baroclinic zone over the area with an anomalously cold upper low swinging south from Hudson Bay. Snow is certainly a possibility given the availability of cold air, but it hinges on how two upper lows phase a week from now. One of which is currently in the Pacific Ocean and the other is near the North Pole. For now, capped PoPs at chance and am going with temps more supportive of rain on Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue through today and tonight.
Winds light and variable through the early morning hours, becoming E to NE around 5 kts this afternoon. A sea breeze will lead to coastal terminals up through KBGR to shift southerly this afternoon. A few cumulus are expected to develop over the area this afternoon, but cigs will remain VFR. VFR cigs with mid-level stratus moving in tonight, and winds light and variable.

SHORT TERM: Friday...VFR with south winds 10 to 20 kt by afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday morning...MVFR cigs tempo IFR cigs.
LLWS possible
South winds 10 to 20 kt
becoming southwest Saturday morning.

Saturday afternoon through Monday...VFR. Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt on Saturday afternoon will become westerly on Sunday and Monday at speeds of 10 to 20 kt.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Fog is possible over the waters later Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, no high impact weather is expected in terms of wind or seas through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
A prolonged period of dry weather with low relative humidity and gusty winds is expected through Tuesday. A wetting rain is not expected Friday night into Saturday. The next potential rainfall occurs next Wednesday, followed another round of dry days with low relative humidity.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Corea Harbor
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Thu -- 01:38 AM EDT     2.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM EDT     9.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     9.45 feet High Tide
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Pigeon Hill Bay
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Thu -- 01:40 AM EDT     2.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     10.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:19 PM EDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     10.02 feet High Tide
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Pigeon Hill Bay, Maine, Tide feet

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