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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 620 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.storm warning in effect from late Sunday night through Monday evening...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy drizzle after midnight. Areas of fog late.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 35 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft, building to 17 to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft, subsiding to 10 to 15 ft after midnight.
Tue..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

ANZ005 620 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A warm front lifts N of the waters tonight. Intensifying low pressure tracks across maine Mon and will draw a cold front across the region Mon evening. High pressure builds Mon night into Tue. A cold front moves through Wed. High pres builds S of the waters Thu.

FXUS61 KCAR 092316 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 616 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front crosses the region tonight into Sunday.
Intensifying low pressure tracks across Maine Monday and will draw a cold front across the region Monday evening. High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. High pressure builds to the south of the region Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
6:16 PM Update: Low clouds and patchy fog early this evening along with with spotty freezing drizzle. The fog will likely become more widespread later this evening and overnight, especially Downeast where temps and dew points will climb well above freezing. Have a special weather statement out for all but the immediate coast until 10 PM, and with no widespread reports of freezing drizzle it seems like things are well handled with no advisories at this time for either freezing drizzle or fog.
Will continue to closely monitor the trends this evening.

Previous discussion: A warm front will slowly lift through the area tonight into early Sunday. While there is strong warm advection and decent thermal gradients, there is little lift and no precip outside of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Not expecting measurable precipitation, so will continue to handle with Special Weather Statements. Nonetheless, the freezing drizzle has caused traffic troubles this afternoon and can be expected to continue delivering locally treacherous conditions tonight. The warm advection will cause temperatures to slowly rise overnight.
Along with rising temperatures from south to north, the freezing drizzle will progress northward and exit the entire forecast area by daybreak. The drizzle is very low level and will not show up on radar.

The frontal inversion will persist tonight through Sunday. The strong warm temperature and moisture advection will produce increasing coverage of fog tonight into Sunday. It is possible that a Dense Fog Advisory will become a consideration as dew points well into the 40s surge northward over the cold, snow- covered ground. With south winds, upslope effect will accentuate fog and drizzle in Piscataquis and northern Penobscot counties.
Winds aloft will increase Sunday, but with the steep inversion, expect minimal mixing.

A weak cold sags southeast into the forecast area from the northwest on Sunday afternoon. The cold front will cause steadier rain to develop in the afternoon except Downeast where the fog and drizzle regime will linger.

With the warm advection, highs will creep into the mid 40s north and low to mid 50s towards Bangor and Downeast. These highs will not be achieved until late day.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Significant Storm to Impact Maine Sun Night into Monday...

Setup...A boundary will be in place across the St. John Valley southward to around the Moosehead Region. 12z operational runs have shifted this boundary slightly more east which complicates the forecast. If this trend continues we will need a shift in wind, rain and snow axes. Opted to take a blend of the NBM, 12z GFS and NAM shifting this boundary from Van Buren to Moosehead.
Extremely potent energy will be diving around the base of the trof over the Ohio Valley and will tilt the trof negatively quickly Sun night. At the same time strengthening jet stream will set up upper level divergence over the NYC area where surface cyclogenesis will rapidly take shape. At the same time strengthening low-level jet will develop and push north towards Maine increasing into Monday. Surface low pressure as it track towards Boston by Mon AM and Maine by Mon midday will be "bombing" out with extremely rapid deepening. This low will track through Maine during the and into New Brunswick by mid to late afternoon and into the Maritimes by early Tuesday AM.

Precip...Given deepening surface convergence along the front over Maine combined with the potent shortwave and low pressure expecting moderate to heavy rain to develop Sun night into Mon midday. Southerly winds will favor increased upslope along the Longfellow Mtns in the Central Highlands to Baxter region.
Widespread rainfall totals by Mon afternoon expected to be 2-2.5 inches with 1.5-2.0 inches along the immediate coast and 2.5-3.25 inches in the upslope areas of the Central Highlands.
Rain will be falling on the snowpack causing significant runoff into the area rivers, creeks and streams causing significant rises, see the hydrology section below. Across the North Woods west of the front the low pressure tracks on will have increased low-level cold air advection. This will result in a much colder sounding, based on the latest operational runs. This will result intially rain changing to wet snow late Sun night into Mon AM with light to moderate snow expected into Monday before tapering late day. This is a complex part of the forecast with models trending east with the boundary which could cause more snow east to the Route 11 corridor north of Patten. Rain will change briefly to snow across much of the northern zones late in the day Monday as temperatures crash to freezing. This will likely result in refreeze on untreated surfaces. At this point given the uncertainty will not hoist winter headlines for now.
Given the increasing confidence in heavy rainfall + snowmelt and rapid river responses opted to expand the Flood Watch to include everyone except the far North Woods and western St. John Valley.

Winds...Late Sun Night the 925mb low-level jet will increase 80-95kt over the Gulf of Maine waters and work into Downeast Maine. The majority of this low-level jet will be below the inversion and decent mixing suggests large chunk of these winds will make it to the coastal areas of the Downeast. Friction will cut this jet down as it penetrates inland over Maine but still expecting some winds to mix down. The caveat to this will be the exact track of the low pressure. With a slight shift today combined with uncertainty on the strongest winds have opted to keep High Wind Watches up for Southern Aroostook into interior Downeast including Bangor region. Confidence is high for southerly wind gusts reaching 60-70mph at the Downeast coast opted to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Significant to widespread power outages from tree damage is likely in these areas. Inland for the watches will give it another model cycle before deciding if we upgrade to advisories or warnings. Winds after the shift in the wake of the storm Monday night will be gusty from the W-NW gusting up to 30-35mph all night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Looking out into the long term ensembles have the NAO turning positive around +1SD and also the PNA turning positive +1SD as well. This within a positive ENSO pattern will keep much of the area with more progressive systems with less precipitation and temperatures generally around normal. A few isolated snow showers on Wednesday with a weak clipper-like boundary sliding through the area with a 500mb shortwave transitioning over the area. Thursday into Friday we have generally 500mb ridging moving overhead but significant timing differences between the global operational runs. Thursday AM lows might be the coldest with high pressure overhead and full decoupling. Opted to keep near the NBM blend for now but cannot rule out negative single digit lows across the northern 1/3rd of the CWA.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: Conditions will trend towards IFR to LIFR in fog and freezing drizzle this evening. The freezing drizzle will transition to drizzle from south to north as the night progresses. However, vis in fog will lower the predominate condition to LIFR tempo VLIFR later tonight into Sunday morning.

LLWS becomes a factor at all sites later tonight with southwest winds up to 45 kt at FL020. LLWS continues all of Sunday for all terminals.

Fog and IFR/LIFR cigs will be very slow to improve with the slow moving warm front and moisture advection on Sunday. Steadier rain replaces areas of drizzle as Sunday afternoon arrives.

SE wind 5 to 10 knots tonight becoming S 5 to 10 kts Sun, increasing to 10 to 20 knots at KBHB by late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Sun Night...IFR/LIFR. Moderate to heavy rain. S-SE winds 10-20kt with gusts to 25kt at northern terms. S winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 35kt at southern terms. LLWS likely all sites.

Mon...IFR/LIFR. Moderate to heavy rain likely. S winds 25-35kt with gusts up to 55kt at BHB & BGR. Gusts up to 45kt at PQI and HUL. Gusts up to 40kt at CAR. NE winds at FVE 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt. LLWS likely all sites. Rain changes to snow at FVE, CAR & PQI after 20z before tapering to snow showers. All other sites are RA till after 18-20z before tapering to showers.

Tue...VFR. W winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. Gusts up to 25kt at BGR & BHB.

Wed...VFR/MVFR. W winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt. Afternoon light SNSH possible at FVE, CAR & PQI.

Thu...VFR/MVFR. NW winds 10-15kt.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: South winds slowly increase through the period such that gusts to 30 kt will be frequent by Sunday evening. Since this is a slow ramp up to the Storm Warning, no separate advisories will be issued. Seas will slowly to the winds, reaching around 4 ft by late Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Storm Warning in effect from 1AM to 7PM Mon. Sun night S Gales will become storms with gusts up 50kt possible by sunrise Mon AM. Waves 8-11ft by daybreak with a period of 7-8sec. Expect winds to increase Mon AM with sustained 40-45kt with gusts up to 60kt. Long period (10-11sec) southerly swells increase to 10-15ft in the intra-coastal waterways and 18-21ft across the coastal waters out 25nm. Winds will shift W Mon eve and drop to Gales for a few hours before dropping to SCA conditions by midnight. Long period swells subside to 8-10ft during the overnight. Westerly wind gusts will be SCA conditions much of the day Tue into Wed with seas still 5-7ft into the evening. Thu-Fri winds/waves look to remain just below SCA conditions
Weather
Rain likely Sun Night into Mon Afternoon before tapering to showers and ending Mon Eve. Rain will be moderate to heavy and will reduce vsby.

HYDROLOGY
Melting snowpack and heavy rainfall to pose a hydrologic threat across a large portion of Eastern and Northern Maine. Ice is present on some of the rivers but will not be that big of a concern. There is frazil and pancake ice that has frozen in place on the St. John and Aroostook River basins along with other smaller creeks and streams across much of the CWA. Latest NOHRSC analysis shows generally 2-5 inches across the southern 1/2 of the CWA and 4-10 inches across the northern 1/2 of the CWA with highest totals in the North Woods and higher terrain of Baxter. In this snow we generally see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of SWE that is likely to melt with this upcoming event.

The combination of heaviest rainfall, SWE melting and the partially frozen grounds corresponds to a flood threat on small creeks and streams. The Piscataquis River which is prone to rapid rises and has a complex terrain in the basin is likely to experience minor flooding. The Northeast River Forecast Center is predicting the Piscataquis at Dover-Foxcroft to rise to Minor Flood Stage on Monday. Given the concern for smaller creeks, streams and some smaller rivers to see rapid rises from rain and snowmelt we have opted to expand the Flood Watch to include all of Downeast, Central Highlands and Eastern Aroostook county. In addition, large rivers will experience rises Monday into Tuesday AM before cresting which could send some locations into action stage. Not expecting flooding at this time, however highly isolated issues may occur as rivers approach bankfull.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The high tide near 9AM Monday morning represents the biggest risk for any coastal flooding and wave runup issues. There are two mitigating factors. First, it is not a particularly high astronomical tide. Second, peak surge is about 4 to 5 hours after the high tide based on current projections. In this scenario, wave runup becomes the primary concern. Seas approaching 10-15 ft will be fairly likely to deposit rocks on roads exposed to the open ocean. That includes Mount Desert Island locations such as Seawall Road and coastal roads on the Schoodic Peninsula.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for MEZ002-004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for MEZ006-011-015>017-032.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

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Corea Harbor
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Sat -- 01:19 AM EST     1.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM EST     10.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:36 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:58 PM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:02 PM EST     9.50 feet High Tide
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Corea Harbor, Maine, Tide feet

Pigeon Hill Bay
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Sat -- 01:21 AM EST     1.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM EST     11.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:35 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:00 PM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:06 PM EST     10.08 feet High Tide
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Pigeon Hill Bay, Maine, Tide feet

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