Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winter Harbor, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
12:45 PM Update... A few scattered showers move through Aroostook county and northern Washington county this afternoon.
Updated temperatures and dew points to match observations. Skies begin to clear out Downeast. Have RH starting to drop along the coast and central Maine as dry air works in. Otherwise, previous forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion... Low stratus and patchy fog are prevailing across Northern and Eastern Maine early this morning. This is due to a weak low pressure system tracking north of Maine. As the low moves eastward into the Canadian Maritimes today, winds will turn westerly to northwesterly. These downsloping winds will cause clearing skies for the Bangor region and Downeast. Further north, these winds will be off an open St. Lawrence River. This will keep enough moisture around for low clouds. A few rain showers will be possible in the Far North through the day today. Based on forecast wind direction, the greatest threat for rain showers will be in the Saint John Valley. The clouds will keep high temperatures in the 40s from Moosehead Lake and Katahdin north and west. More clearing further south and east will allow highs to reach the 50s.

Any leftover rain showers will end after sunset tonight as the low pulls further away and high pressure begins to build in.
Expect mostly clear skies tonight from the Central Highlands southward. Areas further north will see at least a few clouds hang on. The air mass over the region will not be cold for this time of year. Thus, low temperatures will remain in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A brief ridge of high pressure will remain over the area on Thursday, with dry weather and partly cloudy skies. A quick moving shortwave will enter the area late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing a round of rain showers to the area. The speed in which it moves through, in addition to the dry air ahead of this wave that will delay precip onset, little rainfall is expected in any area which receives the showers.

A narrow ridge of high pressure returns once more on Friday, but will not last long as the next low pressure system approaches from the west through the end of the day. Some rain showers may move in early Friday evening ahead of the main shield of precip associated with the low later Friday night.

An occluding low pressure system will move into the area Friday night. Agreement across global models has improved some with the latest 00z runs, brining precip into the Central Highlands up through the north Friday night as the low center begins to track into the Quebec province at this time. Downeast areas may remain mostly dry or with a few light showers during this time as the region sits in the warm sector.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The low pressure system will likely cross the state on Saturday, with the full shield of precipitation moving through the entire CWA Moisture sourced from the Gulf and Gulf Stream will support the potential for briefly moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times through the day on Saturday. The center of the low will move off into the Canadian Maritimes through the night Saturday night. Scattered showers may linger behind the departing low on Sunday as moisture wraps around the occlusion along the cold conveyor belt. Due to the CAA along the cold conveyor belt, showers on Sunday could be snow, especially in the North Woods and Central Highlands.

High pressure returns through early next week with drying weather and warming temperatures which could rise above average by Tuesday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: Conditions improve to VFR at southern terminals.
VFR/MVFR at Aroostook Terminals today due to lingering low stratus. Potential for MVFR conditions this afternoon at KFVE with light rain showers. W-NW winds at 5-10 kts, gusting 15-20 kts.

VFR for BGR and Downeast tonight. MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals due to lingering low stratus. NW winds around 5 - 10 kts.

SHORT TERM: Thurs - Thurs night: VFR across all terminals. W to NW winds around 5 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.

Fri: VFR early, with cigs falling towards MVFR by the early evening. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

Fri night - Sat night: Decreasing to MVFR/IFR for all terminals in rain. E winds shifting NE then N winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Wind directions could vary depending on storm track.

Sun: Improving towards VFR across all terminals through the day.
Lingering rain and snow showers possible, with snow most likely at northern terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 20 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through today and tonight. Patchy fog could reduce visibility on the waters through this morning. NW winds could gust up to 20 kts on the outer waters this afternoon. Wave heights will be 2 to 4 feet today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Conditions likely to remain below small craft advisory criteria through the end of the week, with southerly winds around 10 kts and seas 2 ft or less. Winds will increase into the weekend with a low pressure system crossing the waters, as gusts increase towards 25 to 30 kts by Saturday. Seas will respond 4 to 6 ft through the weekend.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.