Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 4:36 PM   Moonset 4:49 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 200750 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 350 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and breezy conditions will continue across the region today. Although Sunday and Monday will trend drier, it will be unseasonably cool, especially Monday. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing over the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...As a weak frontal boundary continues to move eastward from the region, a quiet and mostly dry morning is expected across the region today as drier air moves in behind the front. A fairly vigorous upper level trough will swing through this afternoon, bringing additional chances for scattered showers, with the greatest chances near the international border. Some of these showers may produce graupel or some pea sized hail, with model soundings show steep lapse rates. The limited moisture available will hinder the potential for measurable precipitation with this system, especially with some drier air at the surface to overcome.
Winds will once again be on the breezy side tomorrow, with gusts up to 35 mph possible at the surface. Daytime highs will be on the cool side, with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, with northern New York and the northeast Kingdom on the cooler side due to shower activity. Showers will taper off after sunset. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, a few degrees below climatological normal for this time of year.

Most of the day on Sunday will be dry, with a frontal boundary moving across the region Sunday evening bringing a chance of some scattered showers. With a tightening pressure gradient, winds will increase throughout the day with gusts up to 30 mph possible in the late afternoon into the evening hours. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the 40s to around 50, with the broader valleys nearing the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Deep, cold shortwave rotates around Hudson Bay strong, cold low across Quebec and northern New England Sunday night. This will deliver a strong cold front with limited moisture and instability for isold/sct rain/snow showers overnight with a decent push of colder air with 925mb temps -6 to -10c by 12z Mon. A chilly, somewhat breezy Monday with deeper valleys in the 40s and some U30s in Mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Broad WNW upper low flow as Quebec shortwave exits and awaiting next upstream shortwave in the Wed time frame.

Ahead of next system, broad fast SW flow for temperatures to rebound to near or above seasonable levels for Tue.

All 3 global deterministics/ensembles show another system for Wednesday with the GFS a stronger outlier with a 520DM Closed Low and 1004mb Surface while the ECMWF/Canadian show a strong shortwave with potential weak surface low (1011mb) tracking across the area.
Although latest Canadian has trended toward GFS. Both solutions are rather progressive with steady precipitation but GFS has upper low lingering through Thu ngt. Most of the precipitation will be rain but as colder air aloft comes in late Wed-Wed ngt some mountain snow/rain mix.

NBM/WPC guidance has 1/3-1/2 inch with locally higher possible through the period which is manageable across FA according to long range hydrologic ensembles.

Attm...leaning toward ECMWF/Canadian solutions of gradual improving conditions Thu-Fri but cooler than normal Thursday...a few degrees milder than Mon with a rebound to seasonable temperatures on Fri.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...Currently a mix of MVFR and VFR flight conditions across terminals with current ceilings between 2500 to 5000 ft AGL. Ceilings should trend towards VFR by morning as any lingering scattered showers come to an end. A period of VCSH will be possible tomorrow evening, however some additional showers will develop in the afternoon (particularly across northern terminals). Gusty winds for earlier this evening will abate for the next several hours and become more westerly, but will pick up again between 15Z to 18Z, with gusts up to 20 knots possible tomorrow afternoon. Some areas of LLWS continue to be possible for the next few hours across the forecast area.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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