South Burlington, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Burlington, VT

June 16, 2024 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM
Moonrise 3:22 PM   Moonset 1:48 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Burlington, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 161127 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 727 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a pleasant Father's Day, temperatures will soar across the North Country as high pressure builds over the region.
Worst conditions will begin Tuesday and continue through Thursday with a combination of temperatures above 90 degrees and higher humidity resulting in dangerous heat index values likely above 100 degrees for some locations. Overnight temperatures will not sufficiently cool to mitigate heat related impacts, especially for vulnerable populations.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
* Today will be a good day to finalize preparations for a period of extended hot conditions.

As of 718 AM EDT Sunday...Only minor adjustments necessary with conditions matching closely to the forecast. The Saranac Lake airport did manage to drop below freezing and reached a new daily minimum temperature record of 30 degrees. Elsewhere, there have been reports of isolated pockets of frost in the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont. Also, there is a little more fog than expected that formed at sunrise; this should dissipate over the next hour. Otherwise, today will be pleasant and ideal for outdoor activities.

Previous Discussion...A seasonally mild day is ahead for Father's Day with ample sunshine and light winds. This will be the last day for cooler conditions with high pressure ridging northward by Monday bringing a prolonged period of hot conditions. Tonight will be much warmer than this morning due to increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak warm front. A few showers will be around early Monday, but coverage will likely be isolated with the front lifting quicKly into Canada by Monday afternoon. Heat will build through the day under increasing southwesterly flow and strong warm air advection. Progged 925-850mb temperatures increase into the low 20s and upper teens respectively supporting highs in the mid/upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...Warm, moist air will continue to stream northeast overnight Monday. Sheltered areas of eastern Vermont will be the last to see this humid air mass arrive, and so 60s to near 70 is expected. Tuesday will mark the beginning of oppressive heat. A large upper level high will set up just to our south. 925hPa temperatures will climb to 25- 26 C, which under full sunshine is suggestive of temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Despite how humid the air on the ground is, the air aloft is actually quite dry, and this will likely result in only localized diurnal showers and storms. Dry air aloft and forecast subsidence in the mixed layer is supportive of very efficient warming that pushes us well into the 90s across the region and perhaps coming close to 100 even. There won't be much flow beneath high pressure, and so it will feel unpleasant.
Given the cool days that we've just experienced and that this is the first major heat of the season, we have not had a chance to acclimate to these conditions. So heat-health impacts are expected to be high. HeatRisk is currently forecasting Moderate to Major heat impacts, mainly due to heat being a cumulative impact. High heat is the highest cause of weather related fatalities. Please be prepared for this event. This could be a life-threatening heat event. Sites such as weather.gov/safety/heat-survivors has anecdotes highlighting the importance of taking heat events seriously. Other helpful resources include heat.gov, and locally vem.vermont.gov/preparedness/heat for VT and health.ny.gov/environmental/emergency/weather/hot for NY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...Potentially deadly heat will continue into Wednesday. There will be no overnight relief with overnight lows in the mid 60s across the Dacks and eastern Vermont, and low to mid 70s in the broader valleys. As noted earlier, the impact of heat is cumulative. So Wednesday will likely the worst day, and not just from forecast number values. Conditions on Wednesday are almost exactly like Tuesday's. Temperatures are likely to soar again into the mid to upper 90s
In fact, the forecast has 90 before noon
With it being the second day in a streak of warm weather, HeatRisk is forecasting Major to Extreme heat impacts across the region. Be extra vigilant of your health, drinking plenty of water and avoiding prolonged strenuous activity during the hottest time of day. Check up on friends, neighbors, and those most vulnerable to heat.

A weak trough will start nosing into northern New York Wednesday afternoon, and that could leave the St. Lawrence Valley slightly cooler in the lower 90s. This should also result in some greater extent of showers and thunderstorms as the weak upper trough grazes the international border. Again, despite how humid it is on the ground, the mid-levels are rather dry. Although this might not result in large coverage of storms, it does mean that there will likely be about 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE with inverted V type soundings at 25-30 knots of 0-6km shear. Any storm that could develop on Wednesday may be capable of producing severe storms due to the heat and marginal shear. The latest GFS forecast even suggests some mid-level cooling aloft may generate some 7-8 C mid- level lapse rates. So in addition to heat, we may be dealing with strong storms. However, will note that this trough and its placement will likely be influenced by convection in the Northern Plains.
Convective feedback and the small nature of this trough means it could be more prone to error than the average forecast with larger features not as influenced by convection.

On Thursday, flow will become a bit more westerly as the ridge starts to flatten in advance of an incoming upper trough and attendant cold front. Although some of the edge of the heat will be taken off by about 2 to 4 degrees north, that's still low to mid 90s, and still mid to upper 90s south. Additionally, this will provide a sharper focus for showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours while about 30-40kts of 0-6km shear is present. Plenty of warmth suggests CAPE values approaching 1000-1500 J/kg is still likely. The front itself looks to shift south and east sometime on Friday.

Dry air will filter in behind this front, and it will be a welcome relief. Overall, it's not significantly cooler behind the front, and so above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will still be likely running forward. The broad upper high will be weakening and shifting south. This will put us in a stream of showers and thunderstorms riding along the periphery of the ridge axis.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...A few VLIFR cigs are out there in the vicinity of MPV/SLK where fog formed around sunrise. This should dissipate by 13Z with VFR for the remainder of the period. Winds will be light out of the south today and tonight. Only other sensible weather will be towards the end of the period along the Canadian border where a few showers will be possible mainly for MSS/EFK, but could dip towards SLK/PBG/BTV around 12Z.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

CLIMATE
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 98 KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 93 KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 93 KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 94 KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 93

June 19: KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 98 KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94 KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 94 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 93 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92

June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 94 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 92 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 89

Record Low Temperatures:

June 16: KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 30

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19: KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 70

June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 72 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 68

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 6 sm59 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds50°F43°F76%30.28
KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY 19 sm60 mincalm10 smClear52°F43°F71%30.27
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