Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:05PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 1:43PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Burlington, VT
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location: 44.43, -73.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 111727 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 127 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. Hot and humid weather for today with valley locations expected to see heat indices in the mid 90s. Some showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over northern NY and progress eastward into Vermont through tonight as a front moves through. Some storms the afternoon may contain locally gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The remainder of the week will be drier with temperatures cooling a few degrees each day as expansive high pressure pushes down from Canada.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 1015 AM EDT Tuesday . The forecast remains on track as of 1000 am so no changes needed. Have a great day and stay cool!

Prior discussion . Everything still on track for today to be the hottest day of the week, and heat advisories are in effect for valley locations starting at noon today.

Increasing southwesterly flow over the forecast area today will advect in warmer and higher PWat air mass . with 850 mb temps progged to climb to around 18 to 19 deg C by this afternoon. This will translate to surface temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, although just how high temperatures climb will be dictated by cloud cover. Starting off the day with a bit of valley fog that will quickly burn off, giving way to partly sunny skies for the remainder of the morning. Complicating the temperatures forecast is some mid and upper-level clouds to our west associated with an approaching frontal boundary. These clouds will spread over northern NY/VT through the afternoon, which will limit solar heating to some degree. Nonetheless, very warm air mass will allow temps to quickly heat up today even with some clouds around. Dewpoints will start off fairly high, in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will make for a muggy start to the morning. Should see dewpoints lower some during the afternoon however with increased mixing progged to nearly 800 mb . which will bring some drier air down to the surface and limit to some degree our heat indices. Overall temperature forecast remains relatively consistent, with heat indices forecast to climb into mid 90s in the Champlain Valley, the Saint Lawrence Valley, parts of the Connecticut Valley. Heat advisories remain in effect for these valley locations valid from noon today through 7 PM.

Chances for precipitation this afternoon are trending upward, and models starting to come to a better consensus that we will see some thunderstorms develop later this afternoon as a front moves into the western portion of our CWA. HiRes models are showing a line of showers/tstorms developing over St. Lawrence County around 3 or 4 PM, then increasing in coverage as it tracks eastward to the Champlain Valley by early evening. The line will likely weaken with waning diurnal instability east of the Green Mountains as it moves into VT late evening. Noting relatively weak shear (around 20 kts), so still not looking like a favorable environment for highly organized convection . however the environment will be favorable for some locally heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds due to a few wet microbursts. Noting in particular high PW values, mid-level dry layer,and steep low-level lapse rates . all supportive of wet microbursts.

By the overnight hours tonight, northern NY will be dry, and could see some fog overnight depending if they're able to clear out. Further east, the front will slowly progress through eastern VT during the overnight hours, with the progress slowed as it runs into strong ridging over the western Atlantic. Thus, showers may linger into the mid to late morning hours Thursday for eastern VT. Overnight lows will be in the 60s for much of northern NY, and in the upper 60s to low 70s for VT where cloud cover will be greater.

Wednesday will be dry save for an isolated shower or two over eastern Vermont as the front stalls to our southeast. Humidity levels will be noticeably lower behind the front, and highs Wednesday will be in the low to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 417 AM EDT Tuesday . Wednesday night and Thursday will feature quiet weather with a ridge of surface high pressure building into our area from the North. Skies will be mostly clear/sunny and temperatures will be about five degrees warmer than seasonal normals for mid August.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 417 AM EDT Tuesday . The long term portion of the forecast from Thursday night onwards remains quiet until the next possible frontal passage around Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure ridge sinks down over our forecast area out of Canada. A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward through the St Lawrence river valley on Monday and cold front crosses the area Monday night. This looks to be our next chance at some showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, temperatures will run a few degrees above seasonal normals through the period. Overall, a pretty quiet forecast for the Thu night through Tue timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 18Z Wednesday . Frontal zone to cross the area this evening with varied impacts. VFR through 21Z in advance of boundary under modestly gusty southerly flow. A few/isold storms possible but coverage should be scant. In the 21-03Z time frame a more concentrated period of scattered showers/storms likely, especially from KSLK eastward. Period of highest coverage to only last for 2 hours or so at any given terminal but brief IFR/MVFR conds and gusty winds possible with any heavier storm cores. Best estimate for timing at KBTV is from 23-01Z. After 03Z winds trend light with a mix of BKN/OVC cigs likely. VFR to prevail at KMSS/KBTV/KPBG/KRUT with conds lowering to MVFR/IFR in low stratus at KSLK/KMPV where some patchy br in the 3-5sm range will be possible. Conds return to VFR at all sites after 12Z Tuesday under west to southwest flow from 4 to 8 kts.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005- 009>012. NY . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>028-035- 087.

SYNOPSIS . Duell NEAR TERM . Duell/JMG SHORT TERM . Neiles LONG TERM . Neiles AVIATION . JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 14 mi57 min S 12 78°F 74°F1009 hPa (-3.4)
45188 25 mi72 min N 16 82°F 74°F1012.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT6 mi63 minS 15 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds90°F66°F45%1010.1 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY19 mi64 minSSE 13 G 2210.00 miFair87°F73°F65%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr43SW5SW7S8NW13S4SW3CalmS6S4S5S4S5S5S6S6S8
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1 day agoNE44N5NW11N7CalmCalmE3CalmSE6SE3SE5E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S4S4S5S55
2 days ago3CalmN6N7N4N3CalmCalmE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmS7S5SW8SW8W5N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.