Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waldport, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday...A strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the pattern across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. In the wake of a departing upper trough early this morning, skies are mostly clear and temperatures are climbing into the low to mid 90s across inland valleys. Todays high will end up several degrees warmer than Monday, particular for areas north of the southern Willamette Valley. Overnight lows tonight will remain elevated, especially in urban centers - due to a combination of residual warmth and weak offshore flow. Temperatures are expected to dip only into the mid to upper 60s across most inland areas, with a 15-25% chance of staying above 70 degrees in parts of Portland, Vancouver, Salem, and Corvallis.

The hottest day of the stretch will be Wednesday, when strong ridging peaks directly overhead. Forecast highs in the Willamette Valley are expected to reach 97-100 degrees, with 30-60% probabilities of exceeding the 100 degree mark. While temperatures above 105 degrees remain unlikely, a small zone between Salem and Canby carries a 15-25% chance of reaching that level. This combination of heat and limited overnight relief is pushing HeatRisk into the Moderate to Major range across the region. These conditions will pose challenges not only for sensitive groups, but also for the broad population - especially those without adequate access to cooling tonight through Wednesday. A Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday evening.

In addition to the heat, north to northwest surface winds will strengthen again late this afternoon and evening, particularly in the Willamette Valley and along the Cascade foothills. Gusts could reach 20-25 mph in these areas. Relatively humidity is also dropping off quickly this afternoon and is expected to remain low into Wednesday, creating elevated fire weather conditions. While Red Flag criteria are not currently anticipated, continued vigilance around ignition sources is essential. In response to expected conditions and in an effort to improve awareness, have issued a Special Weather Statement (SPS) for the Willamette Valley and Columbia River Gorge for today.

Another concern will be transport of wildfire smoke from active fires in eastern Oregon and Washington. HRRR smoke output continues to suggest plumes pushing west of the Cascades later today into Wednesday. Most of the smoke is expected to stay elevated, contributing to hazy skies and the occasional smell of smoke. The extent to which the smoke aloft impacts surface temperatures or overnight lows will need to be monitored.

By Thursday, ensemble guidance shows good consensus on a second shortwave trough sliding southeast through eastern Washington.
This should flatten the ridge and begin ushering in cooler marine air. Overnight lows Thursday morning are expected to fall back into the 50s and low 60s, offering some much-needed relief.
Highs Thursday will still be warm, likely topping out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, with only a 15-30% chance of readings reaching 95 degrees, mostly in the Salem-Tigard corridor.
~Hall

LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence remains high that broad upper-level troughing will dominate the region from Friday into early next week. This will reinforce onshore flow and continue the cooling trend, with inland highs returning to the mid 80s - right around seasonal norms for mid-July.

While no rainfall is expected, this pattern shift should help push any lingering smoke back east of the Cascade. It will also support the reestablishment of marine stratus, especially along the coast and possibly into interior valleys during the overnight and morning hours. Winds overall will be light, except in the Columbia River Gorge, where breezy westerly winds are expected during the late afternoon and evening.
~Hall/HEC

AVIATION
Mostly clear sky VFR conditions other than a few isolated pockets of persistent stratus at the central/southern coast (KONP). 95% chance of all terminals remaining VFR throughout the period, as a switch in slightly offshore winds and dry conditions makes further nightly stratus somewhat unlikely Tuesday night.

Winds are generally northerly for most TAF sites throughout the period, though there is a somewhat offshore easterly component over the Cascades and Columbia Gorge. Winds in the afternoon will gust up to 20 kts for most terminals (up to 25 kts at the central/southern Willamette Valley near KSLE and KEUG).

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with essentially clear skies throughout the TAF period. Northerly winds throughout the period, with gusts up to 20 kts possible this afternoon through 5z Wed. Winds calming significantly afterwards. /JLiu

MARINE
High pressure over the Pacific will maintain northerly winds through the week. A thermal trough developing inland today will help tighten pressure gradients and strengthen winds. The current Small Craft Advisory continues to demonstrate potential for choppy swells through Wednesday night, and has been extended to reflect this possibility. Northerly winds with gusts up to 25 kt and choppy seas of 7-9 ft at 8-9 seconds. Winds weaken and seas subside in the latter half of the week and into the weekend.
-Alviz/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ108>122.

WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ204>207-209-210.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252-253.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ271>273.