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SLZ024 Expires:202312071615;;042557 Fzus61 Kbuf 070828 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 328 am est Thu dec 7 2023
slz022-024-071615- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 328 am est Thu dec 7 2023
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of snow late this morning. A chance of snow showers this afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of snow showers through the early overnight.
Friday..East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny.
Friday night..East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain likely Saturday night.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain during the day, then snow and rain Sunday night.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 071204 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 704 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Colder than normal temperatures continue today with scattered light snow showers across northern New York. A warming trend begins Friday and continues through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal, especially on Sunday. A potentially strong storm system will move into the region Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing rain and gusty winds before ending as snow Sunday night into Monday. While some area rivers could approach or exceed bankfull Sunday night into Monday, significant flooding is not expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

7 AM UPDATE...

Low clouds have scattered out across northern New York early this morning but mid level clouds are moving in out ahead of a warm front that would lift northwards during the day today. A weak shortwave that traversed North Country overnight would exit to the east this morning. As it does so, expect lingering light snow showers or flurries across Vermont to come to an end as high pressure builds in southward from Quebec. On a side note, the cold conditions, high relative humidity and near calm winds have led to light pillars being observed on some area web cams during the pre-dawn hours. See previous discussion below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

This morning, a shortwave trough slides southwest of our region, bringing clouds and scattered snow showers to areas mainly south and west of the Champlain valley where there is better lift and moisture. With temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s, only a coating up to an inch of snow is expected. For areas east of the Adirondacks and across Vermont, indications are that after a cloudy start to the day, sunshine would return by the late morning into the afternoon hours as the 925-700mb level RH values fall to 30-50 percent range. However, temperatures will remain unseasonably chilly in the 20s thanks to a 1020mb surface high nosing in from Quebec and reinforcing a pocket of -8 to -11C 925mb temperatures. For reference, typical highs for early December across our region are in the mid to upper 30s.

Heading into the overnight hours, the relative clear skies east of the Greens as well as the albedo effect of the extensive snow cover there will allow temperatures to plummet quickly into the single digits, with a few negative readings across the Northeast Kingdom.
Cloud cover will be increasing across the Champlain Valley, so expect mainly teens for overnight lows there and low to mid 20s across the St Lawrence Valley. Snow showers could also linger across the western zones into the southern Greens for a part of the overnight hours, but expect a mainly quiet night of weather.

On Friday, a warming trend begins with temperatures moderating to seasonal values. Upper ridging begins to build in with a 1024 mb surface high sliding to our east during the day. It will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures would generally be in the 30s across the region, with upper 30s to lower 40s possible for portions of the Champlain and St Lawrence valley. Apparent temperatures would be chillier with a southeast breeze but it should feel relatively more comfortable to be outdoors compared to earlier in the work week.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EST Thursday...Quiet/dry weather this period as surface high settles into the western Atlantic while upper ridging builds into the region with winds trending steady south over time. This will lead to significantly moderating temperatures with highs on Saturday in the 40s to locally near 50 in the SLV with corresponding lows Saturday night holding mild from 35 to 45.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 AM EST Thursday...The most impactful system of the 7-day forecast to then affect the region Sunday into Monday.
Deterministic/ensemble solutions have begun to settle onto a common theme, essentially painting a picture of a strong frontal zone accompanied by a weak wave of low pressure riding northward along the boundary through the region. These trends now suggest any higher wind threat should be fairly limited.
However, copious moisture streaming northward along/ahead of the front in combination with excellent dynamical forcing/upper support should still produce steady moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall across the region by Sunday afternoon/night. A mix of blended QPF progs from favored output suggests a widespread 1-2 inch event with scattered totals around 2 to 2.5 inches across southern counties, which will likely prompt significant rises on area rivers due to snowmelt and runoff.
Ensemble hydrological output maintains higher probabilities of several rivers at least nearing or exceeding bankfull by Sunday night/early Monday so this will need to be monitored. However, major flooding is not expected. Additionally, given the relatively shorter duration of this warmup, the higher elevations above 1500 feet will likely keep a good portion of the existing early season snowpack, but significant settling is certainly expected as rain will occur even at summit levels Sunday afternoon/evening. As colder air streams in on the back side of the boundary Sunday night, rain will likely change to wet snow with early estimates and existing analogs suggesting a few inches will be likely in the northern mountains with perhaps a slushy inch or so in the broader northern valleys before precipitation tapers off Monday morning. High temperatures to run quite mild on Sunday (45 to 55) before values settle back toward more seasonal values by later Monday/Monday night as conditions trend dry.

Thereafter, a fairly quiet work week appears in store with seasonably cool temperatures and mainly dry weather. A weak northern stream clipper-type low may track through the region Wed/Wed night with some scattered snow shower activity as suggested by GFS/ECMWF deterministic output, but any accumulations should be minor. Daily highs to generally run in the upper 20s to mid 30s with overnight lows 15 to 25 or so.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12Z Friday...Low clouds have scattered out across the northern New York terminals and remaining Vermont terminals with MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR by 14z. A deck of mid- level clouds arrive from the west by mid morning, leading to another round of MVFR ceilings for the NY terminals by 18-21z. This would also be accompanied by isolated to scattered snow showers for KMSS and KSLK from 21z onwards but little to no reduction in visibility is expected. Winds will generally be variable and at or below 5 kt for the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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