Hermon, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hermon, NY


December 5, 2023 9:55 AM EST (14:55 UTC)
Sunrise 7:21AM   Sunset 4:24PM   Moonrise  12:00AM   Moonset 12:54PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:202312051015;;916882 Fzus61 Kbuf 050224 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 924 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
slz022-024-051015- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 924 pm est Mon dec 4 2023
Rest of tonight..North winds less than 10 knots. A chance of snow showers late this evening.
Tuesday..North winds less than 10 knots. Cloudy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Cloudy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of snow.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain Saturday night.

SLZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hermon, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 051425 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 925 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Conditions will trend cooler through Wednesday, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week. By the end of the week, temperatures will climb well above normal. A potentially impactful storm system will move into the region Sunday and Sunday night, bringing rain and gusty winds.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 925 AM EST Tuesday...Main update needed to the forecast at this hour was to sky cover in which the previous forecast was a bit more optimistic of some sunshine developing. So far this morning breaks are only occurring just east of the spine of the Greens across central/southern VT, while elsewhere thick cloud cover persists. Do agree that some more breaks will develop this afternoon, so basically just delayed that by a few hours.
Current temps were also slightly warming than the forecast, so minor adjustments made there, but it will still be a cold day with highs only in the mid 20s north to low 30s south. Previous discussion follows.

Quieter weather will prevail from today through Wednesday with temperatures much below seasonal normals. Northerly flow will be in place across Northern New York and Vermont, and we could see some Lake Champlain effect snow showers south of the broad lake. An upper level trough approaches the region, but passes well to our south and west. This will keep the region pretty cloudy. High temperatures today will only reach the upper 20s to lower 30s. Even with clouds in place overnight, temperatures will dip into the teens to lower 20s, some single digits in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. On Wednesday we'll probably see some breaks in the clouds, but high temperatures will still only reach the mid 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 243 AM EST Tuesday...Transition period between deep trof exiting the NE and ridging that is approaching from the central CONUS. Surface high moves in and crests by 12z Thu but slides east during Thu with developing return WAA flow and a shortwave traveling along the periphery of the approaching ridge.

A very cold Wed ngt prior to increasing high clouds toward morning. Lows in the single numbers and teens. The airmass is rather dry but the above combination may lead to some -shsn, especially in northern NY as some moisture advection from eastern Great Lakes may support this. Highs on Thu will be around 30F, about 10 degs below normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 243 AM EST Tuesday...Upper ridge begins to build into our area Thu ngt-Fri cresting across the area Fri ngt-Sat. There is still a chance of flurries Thu ngt-Fri in northern NY, esp Adirondacks Thu ngt-early Fri.

East-west temperature range Thu ngt with lows in the single numbers/teens across eastern VT and upper 20s in St Lawrence Vly rebounding into the M30s-40 for Friday. Milder Fri ngt with lows in the 20s-M30s and highs Saturday in the 40s.

Thereafter...focus is on large developing storm across Mississippi river valley that will eventually lift NNE into the Great Lakes late weekend-early next week. Models still differ in details on exact timing and evolution but the ensembles and WPC guidance indicate what dayshift mentioned yesterday...At the surface, a sub 990mb low develops by midday Sunday and lifts northeast into the Great Lakes Sunday evening, and eventually to east of James Bay by Monday morning.

Strong warm air advection ahead of the system looks to usher in well above normal temperatures and dewpoints, both potentially rising into the 50s on Sunday. This combined with a strong 850mb jet in excess of 60kts ahead of the attending cold front passage, and progged QPF in the 1- 2" range signal a threat for significant snow melt and potential minor flooding across the region late Sunday night into Monday. Early ensemble river forecasts indicate this potential as well, with median percentiles approaching minor flood for several rivers across Vermont.

The wettest appears late Sunday-Sunday night-early Monday morning. The wind threat doesn't appear too great at the surface for now with the low-level jet really intensifying east of our CWA across coastal New England.

Again, as previous forecaster mentioned...this is still 5+ days away with differing guidance thus details will change but it will be mild and wet. Certainly stay tuned through the remainder of the week as we monitor this situation.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently all sites MVFR, except for SLK which is VFR. Generally have gone with a persistence forecast as conditions are expected to remain pretty steady over the next 24 hrs. Lower ceilings will linger for most of the forecast period. Winds will be north/northwesterly.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 28 mi116 min 30.02
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi116 min 44°F30.03

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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPTD POTSDAM MUNI/DAMON FLD,NY 18 sm20 minNE 039 smOvercast27°F27°F100%30.04

Wind History from MSS
(wind in knots)



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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Montague, NY,



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