Sunday, September20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nelson, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:09PM Sunday September 20, 2020 5:43 AM CDT (10:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 8:16PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson, WI
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location: 44.46, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 200836 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 336 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Another random mid level stratus deck, which seem to be frequent this month, is located over portions of western Wisconsin this morning. Other scattered to broken cloud cover is noted over the Dakotas ahead of the approaching trough and widespread smoke shrouds the entire region.

The trough will continue to lift northeast today from the northern Rockies. The big story will be increasing wind as the pressure gradient tightens with the stationary high over New England. Forecast soundings continue to support wind gusts in the 30-35 kt range this afternoon. While some rogue higher gusts are possible, increasing cloud cover and thick smoke will probably temper the possibility of deeper mixing. Thus, we should fall short of wind advisory criteria.

A confluence line will head east late this afternoon and could spark a couple showers across western MN. Added some schc PoPs for that area after 5 PM. Later this evening as this convergence zone continues eastward and eventually stalls over eastern and southern MN and western WI, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible as better moisture advects north within the inversion between 800- 850 mb. Elevated CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will result while a LLJ of about 45 kts develops near 900 mb. The CAPE is quite above and removed from the core of the LLJ and rather high CIN may keep much from developing. Therefore, the 30-40 PoP over western WI should be considered conditional rather than expected coverage. But, several models do show some development. The stalled convergence zone will keep low convective chances going into Monday from southwestern MN to northern WI.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Moderate 250 hPa flow of 60 to 75 knots will cover most of the Upper Midwest to start the period. A weak trough will be located over the Dakotas within the mostly zonal flow covering the CONUS. Slight confluence in the 850 hPa wind field across eastern MN and into WI could allow for some lingering showers Monday night. However, vertical moisture profiles look rather dry so any shower activity will remain isolated. The aforementioned trough pushes through the area overnight and will help clouds and, hopefully, the smoke clear out. Monday night's lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. On Tuesday, weak upper-level ridging will shift over the Northern Plains. Tuesday's forecast looks beautiful with sunny skies and highs around or slightly above 80. Winds will be light out of the south.

The upper-level flow is forecast to be progressive so features will not stick around long. The ridge shifts eastward Tuesday night while another weak trough approaches northern MN Wednesday afternoon. This trough will push east-southeast reaching Lake Michigan by Thursday evening. Currently have slight chance PoPs from our extreme northern CWA into WI Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. However, the southward extent of showers and thunderstorms should be limited with the trough's vorticity maximum being displaced far enough to the north. More certain is a quick cold frontal passage Wednesday night, "cooling" Thursday's highs into low to mid 70s. Thursday will also be dry and mostly sunny.

Meanwhile, a 150 knot west-southwesterly jetstreak arrives onshore of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday evening. As this feature moves eastward across the US/Canadian border, the ageostrophic response to the jetstreak will foster a strong LLJ over the northern High Plains and Rockies. With 850 hPa temperatures from the upper teens to low 20s degrees C already in place over the High Plains (above the 75th percentile for this time of year), ridging will once again develop over the Northern Plains and south central Canada by Friday. Thus, the "cooldown" on Thursday looks brief as we are poised to return to well above normal temperatures to end the period. In fact, nearly all forecast models have MSP breaking their record maximum low next Friday night (64 set in 1998). Forecast models also agree on a rather amplified upper-level trough approaching the Northern Plains in wake of the ridge Saturday evening. Widespread precipitation would likely be generated from such a feature but details of when, where, and how much precipitation are still relatively unclear. Regardless, perhaps our next chance at accumulating rainfall isn't too far away.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Few changes needed to going TAFs with LLJ building into southwest MN this evening. NAM shows 50 kt winds making it down to about 015 overnight, giving us round one of wind shear. As mixing builds on Sunday, we'll start seeing gusts over 30 kts (in MN). This LLJ will still be over eastern MN/western WI Sunday night, so WS comes back into the fray then. Shower chances on an approaching surface trough continue to look minimal due to a lack of deep moisture. Best chances for showers look to be at RNH/EAU between 5z and 10z.

KMSP . Shower potential is greatest between 3z and 6z, though chances still don't look good enough to even warrant a prob30. With the LLJ moving slow, looks like we'll be seeing similar conditions Sunday night to tonight, so brought WS back Sunday evening as mixing diminishes and the nocturnal LLJ begins to strengthen.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON . VFR. Wind SW 15G25 kts. TUE . VFR. Wind S 5 kts. WED . VFR. Wind SW 10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . Borghoff LONG TERM . CTG AVIATION . MPG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI27 mi48 minSE 810.00 miFair55°F42°F63%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRGK

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE4S5SE5S6S7S9SW9
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1 day agoE4CalmCalmE4SE8SE8S5SE6E6SE6CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmW4CalmNW7N8N5N6NW3CalmNW3CalmN3NE5NE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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