Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nelson, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 4:28PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 7:02 AM CST (13:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson, WI
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location: 44.46, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 101209 AAA AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 609 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Cloud cover is advancing eastward from western MN and the Dakotas early this morning. It has had a significant warming influence with temperatures rising 5 to 10 degrees as it moves overhead. The clouds are in association with a mid level shortwave that will swing through this morning. Behind this shortwave is a reinforcing shot of cold air and gusty winds, so temperatures won't rise much above zero, and they may not at all in some places in central MN. Scattered flurries are possible under the cloud deck.

While the clouds have led to milder conditions overnight, the increasing wind behind this shortwave will bring colder wind chills a bit later this morning across west central MN. Extended the advisory there through Wednesday morning. Wind chills may remain around 25 below for most of the day. Clearing skies this afternoon will lead to good radiational cooling conditions tonight area wide. The exception may be across southern MN where another shortwave could bring increasing clouds and a chance of light snow during the late evening and early overnight hours. This will result in a bump in temperatures after a good drop early this evening. The cooling will resume late tonight, but temps should be warm enough and winds may be light enough to forgo an advisory for that area. Elsewhere, clear skies are expected for much of the night with decreasing winds as another high pressure center arrives. It's always tough to pinpoint where the winds will decouple and temps drop to around -20, but for the most part central MN and western WI will drop into the mid negative teens with winds remaining around 5-6 mph, giving wind chills of 25 to 35 below. The advisory was expanded eastward for tonight.

The high will be centered across southern and western MN for Wednesday. While temps aloft begin warming, it will be tough to get much mixing at the surface with light winds and abundant snowpack. Therefore, highs tomorrow will be similar to today in the low single digits above and below zero.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

In the longer term we'll see the large scale pattern de-amplify as the eastern upper trough lifts to the north. There is a fair amount of disagreement in how the synoptic flow will evolve beyond this weekend, so there is not much impetus to go against the consensus NBM guidance beyond Friday at this point (which results in near to below normal temperatures and few chances for precipitation). The main item of concern in the period is a system that will impact the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Forcing with this system will not be as strong as with yesterday's shortwave trough, but the window of precipitation will be a bit longer and snow ratios could be a bit higher. At this point, amounts of just a dusting to 2 inches look likely, but will need to keep an eye on things, since it is one of those sneaky northwest flow features that could squeeze out 3 or 4 inches depending upon the strength of frontogenesis and whether we see a decent period of dendrites. In addition, won't be shocked if guidance winds up a bit south of where it currently places the main axis of precipitation, since that often seems to happen when a good arctic airmass is already in place ahead of such features. In any event, it still looks to be far from a significant system, but timing could be troublesome once again (with snow falling during the commute on Thursday). After the Wednesday night/Thursday system the flow becomes more progressive and we'll have a few shortwave troughs pass through the region, brining a couple chances for more light snow.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 609 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Clouds are spreading east across the region this morning, but the back edge is already pushing across western MN. Cigs are largely VFR with some localized MVFR and IFR levels. Clear skies expected this afternoon and tonight. WNW winds will shift SW this evening, then shift back to WNW later tonight.

KMSP . No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed . VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. Thu . VFR with MVFR/-SN likely early. Wind SSE 5 kts. FRI . MVFR ceilings with -SHSN possible. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN . Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ041>043- 047>050.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ044-045-051- 055>059-065>067-075.

Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for MNZ044-045-051>053-055>063-065>070.



SHORT TERM . BORGHOFF LONG TERM . AVIATION . BORGHOFF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI27 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair-8°F-11°F84%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRGK

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4CalmW6NW7N7NW6NW4CalmN3CalmCalmE3CalmSE3SE3E3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE4SW6S9S6S10S8S6SE6SE7S5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.