Lake City, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake City, MN

June 20, 2024 6:17 AM CDT (11:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM
Moonrise 7:19 PM   Moonset 2:43 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 329 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


- Two excessive rainfall events are expected late tonight through Friday morning, with another Friday night into Saturday morning. If the heavy rainfall footprints from these two events overlap, we could see a high impact excessive rainfall event Friday night.

- Though heavy rainfall will be the main threat, the second wave Friday night will have the potential for a few severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts from bowing line segments driving that severe risk.

- Going into next week, the weather pattern will become more progressive, but not necessarily dry. This means fronts will come and go as opposed to lingering for days on end.

Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Well, hopefully you all enjoyed our 24ish hours of dry weather yesterday, with our next stretch of wet weather already getting kicked off this morning across eastern SoDak into western MN. The main concern over the next couple of days will come in the form of two heavy rainfall events, late tonight into Friday morning, with a second, stronger wave for Friday night into Saturday morning. Each event on their own would likely not pose a significant excessive rainfall risk, but the concern is the potential for some overlap in the heavy rain footprints from the two events. If we are to see any overlap in the heavy rain footprints with these two events, then where that overlap occurs will have the potential for seeing a high impact excessive rainfall event Friday night.

Starting off with the here an now, we've seen a saturated environment develop within a zone of upper level diffluence with the right entrance region of an upper jet up along the international border. We actually have mostly clear skies from south central into east central MN and western WI early this morning, which is associated with a drier airmass in these areas. This dry air will make it tough to get precip out of western MN through the day, so we did decrease PoPs today as you head toward southeast MN. The heavier precip will remain to our west through the day, with the LLJ expected to remain focused across Nebraska into south central SD.

For tonight we'll see a weak shortwave eject out of the four corners region that will help to both strengthen and nudge the LLJ east through the night. Current expectations are that we'll see a cluster of storms develop this afternoon at the nose of the LLJ over central SoDak, with an elevated MCS riding the nose of the LLJ east through the night across southern MN. The severe risk looks pretty low with this round of precip as it's elevated nature will limit the strong wind potential, while limited instability keeps the hail threat in check as well. What it does look to do is put down a swath of heavy rain, likely a widespread 1-3", with amounts possibly pushing 5" if we see any training/repeated rounds of thunderstorms. Where exactly this swath of heavy rain falls is still uncertain. Within the 20.00 HRRR you see this heavy rain getting dumped out as far south as between Sioux Falls and Sioux City (FV3), to as far north as Brookings, SD up toward Cambridge (NSSLwrf). The current forecast from WPC favors the HRRR mean, with the heavy rain signal for tonight into Friday morning setting up from roughly Marshall over to the Twin Cities.

How all of this activity impacts the environment for Friday in terms of the placement of the surface warm front and the location of thermal gradient up through h85 will determine where round 2 of heavy rain goes. With that said, when we see extreme weather patterns break, they tend to do so with an exclamation point. In the winter, this takes the form of a prolonged arctic outbreak ending with lows getting down to around -30F. In the summer, it's a heat wave breaking with a day or two with highs topping 100. Taking a step back and looking at the synoptic setup for Friday night, it certainly looks to have the potential to be that exclamation mark for this particularly wet pattern we've been in since this past weekend. Friday, a stronger shortwave will come out of Colorado, this will increase the strength of the LLJ and associated IVT/moisture transport. This with MUCAPE values in excess of 2000 j/kg in the warm sector feeding this LLJ with Pwats around 2" (climo max for this point in June) and you have all the large scale markers in place to support a high impact excessive rain event, it just comes down to where the mesoscale details setup. If we get lucky, the activity from tonight into Friday morning will help push round two farther south, keeping the worst of it off of the rainfall footprint from tonight. In a wost case scenario, we see an overlap of the second rounds heavy rainfall with the first. If this occurs, then the potential exists for a much more widespread and high impact excessive rainfall event Friday night. The Moderate Risk from the WPC day 2 excessive rain outlook highlights where this potential for doubling up on heavy rainfall events is greatest across south central MN, though WPC did mention that a further upgrade to a High risk of excessive rainfall is possible if it does look we will double up on heavy rain swaths tonight and Friday night. Though uncertainty remains on exactly where each heavy rain event will unfold, given the potential high end excessive rainfall impacts we have over the next couple of days, it will be important to keep up with any changes to the forecast for the next 48 hours.

Although we've kind of brushed over the severe risk, it can't be ignored with that second wave. We'll see a very unstable environment develop Friday afternoon along the Neb/SD border (around 3000 j/kg of mlCAPE) ahead of the second shortwave coming at us for Friday night. This airmass will be advected into southern MN through the night with the LLJ and although we shouldn't see that degree of instability, 2000 j/kg of MUCAPE with 40 kts of 0-6km shear will certainly support the potential for some stronger updrafts capable of producing marginally severe hail, with the threat for bowing line segments supporting a wind threat as well. However, the severe risk looks to be more of a secondary threat Friday night when compared to the excessive rain potential.

This weekend, we'll see the eastern ridge finally break down, which will allow the front coming through early in the day on Saturday to push east through the Great Lakes through the weekend. However, we will remain within the zone of active westerlies, which will translate into a still active, though this time progressive weather pattern. We're starting to see some agreement on when the next wave arrives, which is looking to be late in the day on Monday into Monday night, with the next wave in the ensembles showing up at the end of next week into the following weekend. Given the frequent frontal passages, we won't be able to build much heat this far north, with it looking increasingly likely that the Twin Cities will make it through June without seeing a high of 90 or warmer. If that happens, it will be the first time since 2014 (another very wet Spring/Summer) where we made it through June without seeing our first high of 90 or greater for the year.

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High clouds prevalent across all TAF sites at initialization.
Ceilings will steadily lower overnight into Thursday morning with rain showers possible mid-to-late Thursday morning. Chances better for rain showers reaching the terminals Thursday afternoon in one swath of rain. Another swath looks to come Thursday night through Friday morning, with a potential break in between for Thursday evening. High degree of uncertainty on the timing/placement of any possible CB/TS so have omitted its mention with this set. Winds will run NE to E throughout the period with speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...First chance for rain showers looks to come from around sunrise to late Thursday morning, but the better chance for steady rain will come late morning and continue through most of the afternoon hours. Showers will diminish late afternoon into the evening, with additional steady rain coming mid-to-late Thursday evening through Friday morning. Will hold off mention of CB/TS until trends become more apparent in short-term models and radar trends.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Periods of -RA/MVFR, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...Periods of -RA/MVFR early, chc -RA/MVFR late. Wind SW 10-15 kts becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Obviously, with the ongoing flooding, the last thing our rivers need is a couple of more heavy rain events tonight and Friday night. It should be stressed, that river forecasts from the NCRFC only include 24 hours of QPF in the forecast, which means the current river forecasts you see include very little of the of the rain we are expecting through Saturday (the river updates Thursday morning will start to include some of this additional rain). As a result, expect more movement in the crest forecasts until we get a better handle on how much and where precipitation falls through Saturday morning. The main impacts from this next round of rain is that first, we'll see crests occur later than currently forecast, with higher forecast levels possible as well, which isn't good news given all the points we're already forecasting to see moderate or major flooding.
Given the latest WPC QPF, the basins that have the greatest concern for seeing crests higher than currently forecast are the Redwood, Cottonwood, Minnesota, Crow, and Mississippi from St.
Paul on downstream.


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KRGK RED WING RGNL,WI 15 sm22 mincalm10 smClear57°F54°F88%30.32
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