Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake City, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

SHORT TERM/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER... Sunny and clear across the southern half of Minnesota this afternoon, as captured on GOES- East visible satellite. Afternoon highs are on track to reach the upper 60s/near 70 degrees across much of the area. The exception looks to be near Barron, Chippewa, and Rusk counties in Wisconsin where lingering cloud cover has limited heating.
For most, the forecast is nice and tame, however we are keeping an eye on the conditions across south/west MN, where fire weather conditions will remain elevated this afternoon. RH's have dropped below 30 percent across western MN, with winds gusting 25-30 mph. RAP forecast soundings indicate that higher instantaneous gusts, near 35 mph, remain possible given the combination of efficient mixing to 5-7k feet and the presence of a 700mb jetstreak aloft. It's possible that RH's dip further, say between 20-25 percent in isolated locations through the late afternoon. A Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather conditions continues through early evening.

NEXT RAIN CHANCES...Nice weather this evening will translate over to a gorgeous Wednesday across much of the region. Afternoon highs are once again forecast to climb into the upper 60s/near 70 for most locations, though it will be slightly cooler northwest of Stearns county in central MN. Of course, it wouldn't fit the theme of the current unsettled pattern to remain dry for more than a day or two! Warm advection driven showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across southern Minnesota tomorrow night into Thursday morning, with the highest chances along I-90. More significant chances (60-80%)
for widespread rain will arrive Thursday afternoon and evening, as an impulse within the large scale southwesterly flow spawns a surface low over the eastern Great Plains. Guidance continues to display the consensus surface low track from roughly central Iowa east towards the Great Lakes. Southern MN/western WI will be north of the surface low, in a region favored for soaking rainfall, supported by healthy moisture advection of PWATs in excess of 1 inch. While the ingredients are in place for widespread rain, a trailing feature in the upper flow will slide over the Dakotas Thursday afternoon. This wave will suppress the forcing over eastern MN/western WI, which unfortunately is likely going to set the stage for another notable precipitation gradient across the area (more rain in eastern MN/western WI, little to no rain across western MN).
WPC's latest QPF outlook displays the potential for 0.75-1" of rain along and east of a line from Martin Co. (MN) to Dunn Co. (WI).
Amounts then drop-off a few tenths of an inch with each tier of counties northwest. Should trends continue, fire weather concerns would continue to remain elevated across western MN due to the persistence of dry fuels. As the midnight shift discussed, this could also mean further degradation in the drought monitor across western MN.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND...Wet weather moves out of the picture to end the work week and open the weekend. High pressure will keep things dry and quiet Friday and Saturday, with highs in the upper 50s (Friday)
climbing into the mid 60s (Saturday). Should be good to go with any outdoor plans! By Sunday, an expansive upper ridge will amplify over the northern CONUS in response to a trough digging in across the southwestern CONUS. Strong southwesterly flow will transport warmer air into the region for Sunday (upper 60s) and Monday (upper 70s!).
The trough is forecast to spawn a surface low across the northern Plains that will track from the Dakotas northeast into southern Ontario by Tuesday. Should this track remain relatively steady over the coming days, much of our forecast area will be in the "warm sector" to the southeast of the surface low. In this scenario, widespread soaking rains would develop across northern MN, leaving southern MN/western WI in a region favored for shower/thunderstorm development. It's too soon to talk specifics with regards to severe weather hazards, however CSU/NCAR ML severe weather probabilities continue to trend upward for Monday. In addition, SPC circled a large portion of southern MN in the Day 7 outlook, given that the pattern is historically favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms. In short, stay tuned! We will have more to share over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Morning cloud shield continues to erode as sunshine takes control over the area, allowing ceilings to dissipate and mid- level clouds to prevail. All sites will reach VFR conditions within 2-3 hours of initialization, with VFR conditions then prevailing throughout the rest of this duration. Passing high cirrus late this afternoon into this evening, with an upper level ceiling passing across the region overnight through sunrise, associated with a weak frontal boundary. A few showers are possible with the frontal passage, but with continued dry air in the lowest 10 kft, these will likely take the form of virga instead of reaching the surface. Partial clearing is then expected from late Wednesday morning onward. Breezy/gusty W winds through this afternoon will go light/variable overnight, then pick up from the N to W tomorrow with speeds under 10 kts.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Breezy W winds at initialization will go light/variable for much of the overnight hours, then pick up from the WSW after sunrise on Wednesday with speeds under 10 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...-SHRA/MVFR likely, mainly P.M. Wind NE 10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.