NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KMPX 021749 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1149 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Chances for some light snow to the east of I-35, and mainly in western Wisconsin, Saturday night into Sunday morning. A second wave will bring the chance for widespread precipitation Monday. Minor snow accumulations will be possible.

- Temperatures remain seasonal in the 30s to open next week. A warming trend into the 40s is set to arrive by the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Today will have a mix of sun and clouds with light surface winds becoming more southerly. A broad longwave trough will approach from the west, with a few embedded shortwaves within it. The most pronounces shortwave will move along I-80 from Iowa into Illinois and up towards the Great Lakes. Models continue to show an area of light precipitation ahead of this shortwave trough. Forecast soundings in western Wisconsin, such as Eau Claire, are saturated with weak lift.
This should lead to light snow across western Wisconsin, and it could make it into eastern Minnesota. Temperatures will be below freezing, so although snowfall amounts will be light, slick roads are possible late Saturday night into Sunday.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Another shortwave will move through late Monday into Tuesday morning. This wave is trending a bit stronger, and if that continues, expect chance for precipitation to increase. The 00Z ECMWF has about half of the 50 members producing light QPF, and the GEFs has closer to 80 percent of the members. The thermal profiles are a bit warmer, but snow should still be the predominant precipitation type. Amounts will once again be light, less than an inch, but the dusting of snow could be enough to cause travel impacts for the Tuesday morning commute.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...No changes to the blended guidance, as temperatures continue to warm again with lee-side modified air from the High Plains spilling over the Upper Midwest. There are a few small chances for precipitation toward the end of the week. Over the weekend, a longwave trough over the western US will move eastward, but how this evolves is very uncertain, and ranges from a cut off low over the Desert Southwest, to a storm system over the central CONUS. It is too early to have confidence beyond what the blended guidance shows.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

MVFR conditions are possible in the near term. A low-level cloud deck around 1500-3500 ft is progressing north from Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin. The leading edge of the deck should arrive around 20-21z to central Minnesota. Cloud cover should increase throughout the evening, with CIGs gradually dropping as well. The lowest ceilings will bottom out around 1500 ft over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tomorrow morning as some light snow showers move through the area. Winds will remain light from the SE, until becoming more variable tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Low-level stratus is starting to build in quickly along the MN/WI border, so we have opted to introduce MVFR conditions at 19z. This cloud deck should stick around for the rest of the day once it fully builds in. The small chance for light snow showers continues to remain on track for tomorrow morning. Winds remain light from the SE until becoming more variable by tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR with MVFR/-SN possible late. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S at 10G15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Minneapolis, MN,