Stowe, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stowe, VT

June 17, 2024 10:17 AM EDT (14:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM
Moonrise 4:25 PM   Moonset 2:03 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stowe, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 171238 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 838 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
The pleasant weekend we experienced will be a distant memory soon enough. Temperatures warm sharply over the next couple of days leading to the warmest temperatures seen in the area in several years. Be sure to take appropriate precautions to avoid heat stress Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 834 AM EDT Monday...Have issued a quick update to increase PoPs and sky cover, mainly across northern NY. Light rain showers are moving out of the St Lawrence Valley and into the Adirondacks this morning. Rainfall amounts from these showers have been light, with a few hundredths being reported by some of the NY Mesonet sites. This activity will wane as it migrates eastward through early this afternoon, and most areas will see just some sprinkles at worst. Otherwise, clouds associated with the warm frontal boundary will spread across the region this morning, but expect sunnier breaks to redevelop this afternoon.

Previous discussion...After a weak warm front moves through this morning bringing isolated to scattered showers mainly towards the Canadian border, temperatures warm quickly under strong warm air advection. South to southwest winds will transport higher dewpoints and temperatures across the Northeast with breezes gusting 20-30 mph. Highs will be in the 80s today, a precursor of warmer temperatures to come as high pressure builds over the region. Overnight lows tonight will continue to warm as well given winds and rising dewpoints; generally ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Airmass modification continues Tuesday with nearly 600dm ridge building northeastward. Heights will continue to rise while flow remains southerly, but weakening aloft. Moisture transport will support anomalous PWATs and humid surface conditions with heat indices rising from the upper 80s to around 100 degrees. The heat advisory was expanded to include our valley Adirondack communities which haven't seen these high heat values since 1988. A combination of recent cool conditions reducing acclimatization and the extended nature of this heat wave will result in major heat related impacts starting Tuesday. Cooling stations have been set up in many communities. Given the terrain acting as an elevated heat source despite rising heights aloft, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the Adirondacks and Greens. Should these form and move over lower valleys, strong winds will be a threat.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 334 AM EDT Monday...Hot weather likely peaks on Wednesday.
Probabilistic data has this as the most likely day for BTV to reach 100 F, and is coincidentally one of BTV's five 100 degree days in the record book reached in 1995. Values have actually come down from about 45-50% closer to 30%. The NBM's 50th percentile has bumped down to 99 as well, but the MOS consensus of 98 is pretty incredible, though. Looking at recent bias, MOS has been biased warm the last several days. It will still be plenty warm with 90s across the forecast area. As noted yesterday, forecasting subtle troughs is going to be difficult, and the trend has been for one weak embedded trough to come through earlier on Wednesday when the environment is capped. So this makes precipitation look a bit less likely on Wednesday. Still, given how hot it is, there could be a localized shower or storm that bubbles up given how hot it is. Overall, there will not be much relief on a hot, sordid day with heat indices creeping up towards 105 in the broader valleys. This forecaster used to live in the Atlanta area in high school, and at these readings, our high school would not let teams practice outdoors. Shift outdoor activities away from peak heating, stay hydrated, and be prepared to take it slow. Look out for each other, and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke to keep safe and well.

It will remain toasty Wednesday night. The latest forecast even has perennial cold spot, Saranac Lake, struggling to fall below 70 with 68 presently in the forecast. The latest forecast continues to hint at the ridge flattening on Thursday with 925 hPa temperatures running about 1.5 C cooler compared to Tuesday and Wednesday, with a trough and westerly flow moving into the region. There will be some more cloud cover and increasing chances for rain, but there's still plenty of opportunity to warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s across the forecast area. High humidity values remain, and so heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s remain likely. We'll closely monitor convection, as 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 30 to 35 knots of shear could promote some stronger thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 334 AM EDT Monday...Thursday night into Friday, somewhat lower PWAT air shifts into the region and there will be some slight cooling. 925hPa readings are more like 20 C, and that supports mostly mid to upper 80s. It appears possible that the weak cold front that passes through may transition into a stationary boundary as the upper high continues to sag south. Depending on where it sets up, we could be in for a soggy stretch over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side of normal, and trend back to somewhat more humid conditions amidst increased rain activity.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period with best chances of MVFR with showers 12-17Z as a weak front moves through the region at MSS. Upstream radar shows ample returns, but decaying as they move into the ridge; thus can't rule out scattered showers for MSS/BTV/EFK/PBG/SLK.
Thunderstorm chances are less than 10%, so left those out for now. Otherwise, winds will be south/southwest with gusts 15-25kts. MSS could see a brief window of LLWS with the glancing front that tracks through 14Z. Tonight, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but there will be chances for patchy fog possible for terminals that receive some rainfall in excess of a couple hundredths of an inch. Best chances will be at MSS/SLK/EFK.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

CLIMATE
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 97 KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 93 KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 94 KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 95 KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 91

June 19: KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 97 KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94 KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 94 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 93 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 94 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 93 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 89

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19: KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 70

June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 72 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 67

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 6 sm23 minESE 0510 smMostly Cloudy68°F55°F64%30.11
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 20 sm26 minS 0910 smClear72°F55°F57%30.15
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Burlington, VT,




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