Jericho, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jericho, VT

June 20, 2024 2:38 AM EDT (06:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 7:58 PM   Moonset 3:24 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jericho, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the region into tomorrow for just one more day with highs in the 90s combining with humid conditions to create heat index values up to 100. Please continue to take appropriate precautions to avoid heat stress as heat can have a compounding effect. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, which could possibly severe and heavy featuring hail, frequent lightning, downpours, and gusty winds.

As of 116 AM EDT Thursday...The forecast generally remains on track early this morning, with few changes needed with this update. Muggy conditions persist across the region, with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s; a few spots are still reporting temperatures in the low 80s. Dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s, as well. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is slowly moving eastward along/just south of Lake Ontario. This feature isn't being handled too well by latest CAM guidance, but expect portions of northern NY could see some showers and a few rumbles of thunder as we head toward daybreak.

Previous discussion...Showers and thunderstorms that are stretched across the forecast area this afternoon will gradually taper off into the evening as we lose instability and sunlight tonight. Temperatures are not expected to fall very low tonight with forecast lows in the lower to mid 70s for most. If temperatures at the Burlington Airport (BTV) don't fall below 80 degrees by midnight, we will tie the all time warmest minimum temperature. Some areas of the forecast area, particularly valley spots that had rain today, may experience patchy fog tonight as moisture gets trapped under an inversion.

The mild night will start us off warm again tomorrow as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Hottest conditions are most likely to occur in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valley, where heat indices could approach 100.
This will be not quite as warm as today was, as a frontal boundary is likely to produce some precipitation and bring slight cooling from north to south. With shortwave forcing, increasing wind shear, sufficient instability, and oppressive heat, there is a marginal to slight (5-15%) chance of a severe thunderstorm for most places across the forecast area of northern New York and Vermont. The primary severe threat from any storms will be gusty, damaging winds, however, there is also the potential for hail and frequent lightning. In addition to severe concerns, very high precipitable water rates are conducive to heavy downpours. If storms become stationary along the frontal boundary and repeat downpour in one spot, there could be the risk of flash flooding.

As of 405 PM EDT Wednesday...The short term focus wl be potential for showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with slow moving cold frnt dropping south. The greatest potential for showers and embedded storms look to be acrs central/southern VT on Friday where pw values are still near 1.5" and sfc based CAPE values are in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Much drier air with lower humidity values wl be near the International border associated with sfc high pres near Hudson Bay. The latest trends however have been for less of a southerly push associated with this 1022mb high pres, as frnt becomes stationary acrs central NY into SNE. Progged 925mb temps btwn 18-21C support cooler highs on Friday with values upper 70s to mid 80s. Greater potential for cloud cover may hamper warming acrs southern sections, but humidity values wl be higher in Rutland/Windsor counties too. Areal coverage of showers wl decrease on Friday night as weak subsidence develops and axis of deepest moisture is just south of our cwa. Have continued with some token 15-25% chance pops for now with temps in the 60s. Also, given recent rainfall and some lighter winds areas of patchy valley fog is possible, especially CT River Valley and parts of central/northern VT.

As of 405 PM EDT Wednesday...An unsettled pattern with occasional showers are likley for this upcoming weekend into early next week. The exact timing and placement of heaviest precip is still getting fine tuned, but several parameters are coming together for localized heavy rainfall. These parameters include a nearly stationary west to east oriented boundary, pw values btwn 1.5 and 2.0", deep warm cloud layer up to 11kft, and intervals of favorable 850-700mb fgen forcing. Its always challenging for placement of heaviest qpf in narrow west to east axis of favorable dynamics and moisture that is several days away. Best potential attm looks to be acrs the northern Dacks into central/northern VT. WPC has part of our cwa in marginal for Day 3, which looks reasonable, especially given the activity over the next 1 to 2 days. For now have continued with high likely pops for Saturday into Sunday. As we get closer these pops can be fine tuned with regards to timing and placement and hopefully we can find a few hours of dry weather this upcoming weekend. Temps wl be near normal for highs with values in the mid 70s to lower 80s while lows hold in the 60s. Late Sunday into Monday, potent s/w energy and associated sfc low pres wl track north of our cwa. However, given the dynamics and boundary associated with this system, another period of showers with embedded storms looks likely. Still some uncertainty on timing and amount of instability, but dynamics should be enough to support some rumbles of thunder. Much drier and quieter weather returns for early to middle of next week with near normal temps.

Through 06Z Friday...Aviation challenge is fog potential through early Thursday morning followed by timing of convection on Thursday. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, indicating very high low level moisture content, but KCXX VAD shows 20 knots just off the deck. So thinking some 3-5SM HZ is possible at SLK/PBG/MPV/EFK, but given winds just off the deck, feel potential for fog with IFR or lower conditions is <10% attm. For Thursday, expect areal coverage of showers/storms to increase toward noontime with some localized strong to severe storms possible. Any storms will have the potential to produce strong/gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning and MVFR vis in heavier rain. The greatest potential will be between 17z and 22z on Thursday, with conditions improving toward sunset. Have used VCSH/VCTS for now, but as confidence in timing improves prevailing groups and tempo's for MVFR cigs/vis will be needed on Thurs. Another round of potential fog after 00z Friday, especially in areas that see rain. Have left out of the TAF for now given it is right at the forecast period.


Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

Hot temperatures will result in values near records. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 92 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 90 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 88 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 87 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 86

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 73 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 67

VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001>011- 016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>031-034- 035-087.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 8 sm44 minS 0610 smClear81°F72°F74%30.22
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 21 sm44 minSW 0610 smClear79°F72°F79%30.23
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Burlington, VT,

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