NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 719 AM EDT Saturday...Patchy fog continues to hang across the Connecticut River Valley into central Vermont, but should erode in the next hour or so with the sun. Temperatures overnight we're quite chilly, with Saranac Lake and other locations in the Adirondacks dropping into the upper 40s. The forecast remains in good shape, with only minor adjustments made to reflect the current temperature trends.

Previous Discussion...It's shaping up to be a pleasant weekend across the region as upper level ridging and surface pressure build into the region. Today will feature mostly clear skies, with northwesterly flow continuing to usher in dry air. Wildfire smoke the fires out west may continue to impact the region tomorrow, possibly making skies hazy tomorrow, but the smokes looks to remain aloft. Daytime highs will be quite seasonable this afternoon, although a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will continue to be in the 50s, making it feel quite comfortable. Another efficient radiational cooling night is expected overnight, with some patchy valley fog possible and overnight lows dropping into the 50s and lower 60s.

Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than today, with high temperatures in the 80s and some locations in the broad valleys nearing 90. Fairly pleasant conditions will continue as the ridge continues to move overhead, with some sunshine and dry weather prevailing.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...Overall uneventful weather is expected for this period. A retrograding weak low pressure system brings the potential for increased cloud cover to start the new work week. Most of the shower activity does stay east of the Connecticut River valley, however, so have maintained an overall dry forecast across our forecast area on Monday. The increased cloud cover is expected to keep a lid on high temperatures, which should generally top out in the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...The upper ridge parked over the Northeast gradually breaks down as we head into mid week and the month of August. Out ahead of the slow- moving upper level trough, PWATs rise to 150 percent of climatological normal so there is the increased risk of heavy rainfall during downpours and embedded thunderstorms.
WPC currently has a Day 5 marginal excessive rainfall outlook for most of our region, which is reasonable given the aforementioned factors. While a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, severe weather looks unlikely at this time given the unimpressive lapse rates and instability parameters. Additionally, while it could get quite muggy with dew points rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s, air temperatures in the mid to upper 80s would keep apparent temperatures generally in the lower 90s. In other words, while it could get quite uncomfortable outside, this is not uncommon for mid summer. Overnight lows would also likely be quite mild, gnarly 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals this morning, with the exception of some patchy fog at KMPV leading to variable conditions ranging from LIFR to VFR.
This patchy fog across the region will erode over the next hour or so, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day with mostly clear skies. Some wildfire smoke aloft will move overhead, but may occasional try to mix down towards the surface which may head to some haze this afternoon. Light and variable winds this morning will become northwesterly during the afternoon, then become light and terrain-driven after sunset.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.