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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winooski, VT

June 25, 2024 2:09 PM EDT (18:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM
Moonrise 11:44 PM   Moonset 8:52 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winooski, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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112 FXUS61 KBTV 251727 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 127 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny skies will promote seasonably warm temperatures today after a cool start. A cold front approaching from the west will spark scattered showers tonight. Following a period of dry conditions tomorrow, a potent trough will provide forcing for numerous showers overnight into Thursday morning. Chilly high pressure will settle in by Thursday night, then another frontal system will support the return of active weather on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...Minimal changes necessary with this update. Some fair weather cumulus is popping up off the mountains, otherwise, high clouds continue to rotate into northern New York. No precipitation expected until tonight.
Previous discussion below:

Previous Discussion...
To start the day, fog is the main story. River valley fog gradually expanded overnight throughout all of the typical spots, particularly east of the Green Mountains, despite quite a bit of northerly flow aloft. Given the strong subsidence in the wake of the trough that moved through the region yesterday, this fog is not surprising, but it has been poorly modeled with a tricky scenario featuring very shallow surface inversions.
Gradient flow between low pressure to our east and high pressure to our southwest is generally out of the west, but the terrain is helping it become south or southwesterly in the St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys and limiting fog potential in these areas.
Winds just above the surface are mainly 15 MPH or greater even where fog has developed, which will help the fog dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise.

Then the story becomes pleasantly warm conditions. A dry air mass will help temperatures rise quickly with sunny skies.
Forecast soundings show afternoon mixing above 800 millibars, and have blended in some bias-corrected model output statistics for the highs to nudge them up a bit in many locations.
Generally looking at highs in the 80s for most spots with low humidity, so it should be a lovely day. Precipitation chances are nil through late afternoon.

Tonight another strong low level jet, peaking at about 50 knots, will make its way into the region and shower chances quickly increase from west to east, especially towards midnight. Think most locations will stay dry as coverage will be limited by relatively weak forcing. A kink in the upper level flow will ride eastward as mid level flow turns southwesterly and surface pressure falls ahead of a weak cold front. This system does not have much moisture return with a lack of deep southerly flow, and so between that and the non-existent surface based instability in place ahead of the front, the only potential for thunderstorms is if there is organized convection upstream that can hold together as it rips eastward. If so, showers would be capable of gusty winds, with the greatest potential in our western areas.

The main impact of this system may instead be providing another period of breezy conditions. Uniform westerly flow looks to set up behind this front under a weak cold air advection pattern, which will allow for gusts of 25 to 30 MPH across the Adirondacks along with central and eastern Vermont. Another period of sunny skies will follow the frontal passage, then clouds will rapidly increase late in the day from the west as a much more vigorous trough approaches to bring rain. The chances of rain through Wednesday evening begin to ramp up primarily in northern New York, although it is hard to be more specific yet with uncertainty on the position of the boundary that showers may focus on before showers overspread the area Wednesday night.
Temperatures on Wednesday should be a bit cooler than today, but 850 millibar temperatures on the cool side of the front aren`t much colder. Assuming there is abundant sunshine through at least the first part of the day, highs should warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 332 AM EDT Tuesday...A period of rain showers with embedded heavier downpours is likely Weds night into Thurs associated with mid/upper lvl trof and potent s/w energy. The best dynamics look to arrive overnight, when instability is minimal, which should limit rainfall rates and associated flash flooding threat. Best combination of lift and moisture with pw values btwn 1.0 and 1.50" wl be acrs central/southern VT on Weds night. Have pops in the likely to cat range (60-80%) for now, which wl increase as confidence increases on exact placement and timing of heaviest QPF.
Precip looks to range btwn 0.25 and 0.75 with some localized heavier amounts possible over southern VT zones. Temps with clouds and precip wl be in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Weds night. Initial s/w energy departs our eastern cwa by 15z, however secondary energy in the northern stream jet approaching our SLV region by 18z. Moisture and instability is limited, but dynamics look good for the potential of a few additional showers. Areal coverage wl be limited by the lack of deep layer moisture on Thurs aftn. Highest schc/chc (15-30%)
wl be acrs northern VT. Progged 925mb temps btwn 14-16C support highs mid 70s to near 80F on Thurs. Sfc high pres builds directly overhead on Thurs night into Friday morning. MEXSLK has a cool 35F (a sign the turn has occurred), but feel boundary layer moisture wl promote fog development and limit temps from completely bottoming out. For now have lows upper 30s to upper 40s with patchy areas of fog likely.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 332 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday wl be a classic North Country Chamber of Commerce type summer day with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity values, and temps close to normal for late June with highs mostly in the 70s. Next mid/upper lvl trof impacts our cwa Sat into Sunday with another round of unsettled wx likely. Once again system looks to impact us in fragments, resulting in several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms over the upcoming weekend. First feature is warm frnt on Sat morning with weak embedded vort, could produce a few light showers over northern NY.
Next piece of energy is the pre-frontal trof and associated elongated vorticity that arrives late Sat aftn/evening, while the actual sfc cold frnt impacts our cwa toward 12z Sunday. This piece meal concept to sfc and upper air features makes timing precip chances over the weekend very challenging. Crnt guidances suggests highest potential btwn 18z Saturday and 06z Sunday, but this entire time period wl not be a washout. Crntly soundings show limited instability with moist adiabatic profiles and warm cloud depths, as pw values surge btwn 2.0 and 2.25 inches on Sat. In addition, strong llvl wind profiles develop with progged 850mb winds of 45 to 50 knots ahead of pre-frontal trof feature, so expect localized gusts 25 to 35 mph in SLV and CPV on Sat aftn before precip arrives. As always if more sfc heating occurs, given our strong wind profiles and dynamics, the potential for a few stronger storms wl need to be watched. In addition, given the recent rainfall, there wl be a non zero threat for flash flooding, especially given the very high pw values. As time frame becomes sampled by high res CAM output, the confidence in timing and placement of heaviest qpf footprints wl increase. System slowly clears our cwa by Sunday aftn with improving conditions and drier air for early next week. Highs generally near normal for the weekend into early next week , but overnight lows much above normal, especially on Sat night with southerly winds and increasing dwpts.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions to prevail for all TAF sites through 03Z-11Z, when a warm front is expected to cross the forecast area, bringing ceilings to MVFR levels for some.
Scattered showers are also possible with this warm front, though they should be light enough to have minimal impacts to visibility. Used VCSH to show when showers are most likely to occur.

Winds currently out of the southwest (or variable in some spots)
could have gusts 20-25 knots for the next couple of hours before decreasing. Winds over the next 24 hours will largely fluctuate between south and southwest, and could remain sustained 5-10 knots throughout the night tonight. A low level jet passing by in conjunction with the warm front will provide some low level wind shear likely 06Z-12Z. Tomorrow during the day, winds may pick up again out of the west with gusts 15-20 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 3 sm15 minWSW 0410 smPartly Cloudy86°F57°F38%29.80
KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY 18 sm16 minENE 0810 smPartly Cloudy81°F63°F54%29.78
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Burlington, VT,




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