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FXUS61 KBTV 302327 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 627 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
After some sun this afternoon, clouds will increase again overnight and Friday as our next system approaches from the west. Today's warmup will lead to a mix of rain and snow with this next system Friday and Friday night, with some light snow accumulations expected, mainly above 1500 feet. Additional rounds of precipitation are likely during the weekend and early next week, with a mix of rain or snow across the region at times depending on elevation and temperatures near freezing.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 621 PM EST Thursday...Not too much to talk about tonight with gusty winds and clouds keeping temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Winds will continue through the overnight hours and begin to weaken around daybreak ahead of the frontal passage discussed below.

Previous Discussion...Although a bit on the brisk side, this afternoon ended up not too bad as we saw sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 30s and mid 40s. The gusty south to southwest winds will continue through the evening hours, and this along with increasing clouds will help to keep temperatures from cooling too much after sunset, then likely holding steady or warming slightly overnight. Lows will be in the mid 30s to around 40 from the Champlain Valley westward, while along and east of the Greens will likely cool down in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Meanwhile, moisture will increase overnight as a frontal boundary dips out of Canada and hangs up across northern NY into far NW VT.
This looks to be mainly limited to low levels and below the snow growth zone through early-mid morning Friday, so don't anticipate much beyond some flurries/sprinkles. The bulk of the precipitation will arrive Friday afternoon as an upper shortwave quickly traverses across the region. This looks to be a fairly broad swath of stratiform precipitation and may be briefly moderate at times through the afternoon/evening.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s by the time the perception arrives, so expect that it will mainly fall as rain, especially below 1500 ft. This may drop more toward 1000 ft in the evening as we see temperatures cool after sunset.
However, there's no real cold push of air as flow remains west/southwest, and the front will remain stalled over our forecast area as we head into the weekend. The bulk of the precipitation will end toward midnight, but with the lingering frontal boundary and another upper shortwave approaching late Friday night/early Saturday, rain/snow showers will continue to be possible through the remainder of the overnight period, especially in the northern mountains. All in all, snow amounts will be minimal, generally a few tenths to around an inch above 1000 ft (mainly closer to and above 1500 ft), while 2-4 inches will be possible on the summits. Lows Friday night will be in the lower to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 327 PM EST Thursday...A frontal boundary will be stalled over the region and there will be a couple weak lows traveling along it, leading to a cloudy period with some rounds of light showers. The most widespread showers look to be Saturday afternoon, but even then, the precipitation will be light with a high PoP/low QPF scenario. The showers will become more scattered on Saturday night. QPF amounts are mostly under 0.1 inch in this period. The precipitation type will be elevation dependent with the higher elevations seeing snow showers and the lower elevations seeing rain showers. Accumulations should be limited to areas above 2500 ft and with the light precipitation, the highest amounts look to be mostly under an inch. Snow might mix in a bit at lower elevations Saturday night as temperatures decrease a little, but any accumulation there look unlikely.
Plentiful low level moisture looks to remain in place Saturday night after most of the showers move out. Combined with temperatures falling close to freezing in the higher terrain, some freezing drizzle might be possible. Freezing drizzle might also be possible in the St. Lawrence Valley as there will be a cold northeast drainage wind caused by the lows tracking to the south of the North Country and a relatively strong high over eastern Quebec.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 327 PM EST Thursday...A shortwave trough will pass through the North Country Sunday night into Monday and a low pressure looks to develop along it. There is still high model uncertainty with this event, but there is decent agreement that there will be heavier precipitation than in the previous storms. Therefore, continued to forecast a period of likely PopS Sunday night.

The GFS has a warmer setup with the primary low over the Great Lakes remaining stronger and pushing the North Country into the warm sector. The Euro continues to have the primary low transfer its energy to a secondary low off the New England Coast quicker and keep a cold enough airmass for snow accumulations to occur over much of the region. Currently about 30-40 percent of the EPS members give a large area of Vermont over 6 inches of snow while less than 10 percent of the GEFS members do the same. The Canadian ensembles are split between the GEFS and EPS. Despite the differences, the atmospheric temperature profiles show that this would likley be a rain or snow event without much of a freezing rain threat. It also looks like if the EPS solutions end up occurring, snowfall would be less elevation dependent than the previous storms with temperatures in the Champlain Valley cold enough for snow. After the storm moves out, there will be consistent northwest flow for much of the week under a broad trough. This should lead to mostly cloudy conditions, below average temperatures, and some upslope snow showers.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to continue through around 12Z before we see conditions begin to deteriorate from west to east as a frontal boundary approaches the region.
Rain is expected to move into northern New York after 18Z and into Vermont after 21Z. Rain is expected to mix with or change over to snow as we approach the evening hours on Friday which is right at the end of this TAF package. We have begun to include some prevailing -SHRA and -SHRASN (mainly across northern New York) but we could see sites like KSLK and KMSS switch quickly over to snow after the onset of precipitation. This will be fine tuned in subsequent TAF packages.

As for the winds, gusty winds will be a common theme tonight both at the surface and aloft. Southerly winds will channel through the deeper valleys which will impact KBTV, KMSS, and KPBG while other sites will see less of a gusty factor. However, a strong low level jet is moving overhead with winds in the 30-40 knot range at 2kft. This should bring wind shear to all terminals through 6Z with some sites like KSLK seeing wind shear through 12Z. Winds will abate thereafter with less gusty winds Friday afternoon and no wind shear is expected.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

MARINE
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight. Strong south winds will continue through this evening, abating slightly overnight, though still remaining near advisory levels. A period of strong south winds is expected tonight. Waves will be 3 to 6 feet.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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