Burlington, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burlington, VT

June 22, 2024 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:06 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM
Moonrise 9:59 PM   Moonset 5:05 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burlington, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 220550 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as a frontal boundary wavering over the region will result in repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Ponding on low lying roads may be possible Sunday with heavier showers and storms. Temperatures will be much more seasonable through the weekend, as well, with highs generally in the 70s and 80s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1235 AM EDT Saturday...Some showers have began to develop and that trend should continue tonight. Adjusted PoPs up a little based off the radar and newest guidance. Still looks marginal for thunder, but any elevated storms that develop may produce downpours and frequent lightning. Patchy fog should develop tonight, particularly in areas that have seen rain this afternoon and evening.

Previous Discussion... A cold front sinking southward across southern Vermont into southern New England this evening will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms along the southern zones of our forecast area could be locally heavy with precipitable water values up to 1.75 inches. Thunderstorms are not anticipated to be severe within the bounds of our forecast area, however, some may be gusty in those southern zones, closest to the core of high CAPE values.

Showers and thunderstorms will dwindle into the overnight hours as daytime heating wanes, however, many high resolution models are showing a resurgence of showers as the frontal boundary lifts northward back into our forecast area early tomorrow morning. We're expecting up to a couple tenths of an inch of rain throughout the night. In addition to the return of showers, patchy fog is expected to return overnight tonight. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s, remaining 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms resurge tomorrow along the frontal boundary in our forecast area, and the primary threat with these will be heavy rainfall with deep warm cloud layers about 12000 feet. We are within the marginal area of WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook, indicating at least 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point as precipitable water values approach 2 inches in spots. Overall expected rain amounts from the daytime hours tomorrow will be 0.15-0.35", but locally higher in heavy storms. Some of these storms could be a bit gusty with modest instability and shear present, but overall we are not anticipating widespread severe weather. Highs tomorrow will rise into the 70s for most, near seasonable.

Tomorrow night, a low pressure will ride the stalled frontal boundary through our forecast area as a larger scale system approaches from the west. Precipitable water and warm cloud depths continue to look favorable for heavy rain throughout the night.
We're forecasting 0.10-0.90" of rain throughout the night, but locally more in heavy showers or thunderstorms. Lows tomorrow night will be similar to tonight, with temperatures falling into the 60s for most.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 328 PM EDT Friday...Sunday will be another active weather day.
A surface low, potentially even sub-1000mb, will track east over the Great Lakes region and drive Saturday's warm front to the north.
Depending on how far north it goes, we may land solidly within the warm sector with some partial clearing. What will be challenging for vigorous convective development will be the timing of a prefrontal trough. Without a capped environment, any daytime heating will initiate showers and thunderstorms. Although 750-1500 J/kg is most likely, there's conditional chances for reaching 2000 J/kg while 35-40 knots of shear is present. Being positioned so near the warm front still, there may be good to excellent low-level convergence and increased helicity as the low tracks closer. However, if there's too much convective debris, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms would become more limited. Additionally, precipitable waters remain above 1.5". Given the favorable low-level forcing, there could certainly be locally heavy downpours. Hydro concerns may be non-zero depending on how Saturday evolves. If we deal with a situation where the warm front fails to make appreciable northward progress, then multiple rounds of rain could also take place.

Temperaturewise, conditions will be coolest along the international border near the front, with low to mid 70s. In the typically cooler Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, mid 70s will also be most likely.
In the broader Champlain and lower Connecticut River Valleys, expect upper 70s to lower 80s. The actual cold front does not arrive until Monday morning. Conditions will remain in the upper 50s to upper 60s, about 5 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 328 PM EDT Friday...Once low pressure moves east, deep low pressure reaches peak intensity. Decreasing thicknesses, cool northwest flow amidst wrap around showers will result in upper 60s to mid 70s for most (though still near 80 in the southern half of the Connecticut River Valley). The upper low will be slow to shift east initially. Chances for showers will linger into next Tuesday morning. Dry weather only hangs around for 24-36 hours before another cold front sweeps through sometime next Wednesday night or Thursday afternoon. It'll be after this front where it looks like we could see more appreciable drying.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...A warm front will slowly pass through the region tonight and tomorrow, bringing showers and low ceilings.
After the front passes to the north tomorrow night, ceilings should increase a little. Ceilings should drop to MVFR or lower everywhere by tomorrow morning. IFR ceilings are a possibility at any terminals, but they are most likely at MPV, SLK, EFK and RUT. Showers could briefly lower visibilities to MVFR at any terminal. One or two of these showers could contain embedded thunder but the probability of one of these thunderstorms hitting a specific terminal is low. Ceilings should rise slightly during the day tomorrow with diurnal heating, but dense cloud cover and the frontal boundary will prevent much improvement. Improvement will likely not be widespread until the front lifts all the way to the north tomorrow night. WInds will be very light during this period and LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

HYDROLOGY
A stalled boundary with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times, could produce flash flooding this weekend.
However, it is trending to less of a hydro threat as the front is looking to stall north of the international border.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 5 sm69 mincalm10 smOvercast70°F64°F83%30.08
KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY 16 sm70 minNW 0410 smOvercast66°F61°F83%30.08
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