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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burlington, VT

February 18, 2025 8:49 PM EST (01:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 5:27 PM
Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 10:01 AM 
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Area Discussion for Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 182327 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 627 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

SYNOPSIS
Winds will remain breezy, but should subside heading into tomorrow with temperatures near or 5 to 10 below zero tonight.
The remainder of the week will continue to colder than normal as a surface high pressure slides from the Plains across the East Coast. Some light snow showers are possible late Thursday with into Friday. Temperatures look to moderate with slight chances for precipitation to start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 607 PM EST Tuesday...Radar returns from a weak upper trough are starting to descend across the region. A few webcams across the Adirondacks and the northernmost stretches of the Northeast Kingdom have some snow flying around. We could see this ramp up while this trough pushes south in the next few hours, and then gradually subside again overnight. Winds are coming down across the forecast area. There are still a few stubborn areas east of the Green Mountains still gusting to near 40, but most everywhere else has trended towards 15 to 25 mph.
Winds will continue to slowly abate as pressure gradients gradually relax across the region. The forecast is in great shape with minimal updates needed. Have a great night!

Excerpt of previous discussion...Gusty winds will gradually weaken by sunset, though sustained winds will remain breezy tonight up to 15 mph. A weak shortwave will track across the region this tonight which could lead to some snow showers in the Adirondacks and northern Greens with increased cloud coverage.
Snow will generally be confined to the summits and downwind locations of the mountains as Froude numbers are between 1-2.
Snow accumulations will be light with 0.5-1 inches possible.
Mountain waves should envelope most of the area in clouds this evening as the shortwave tracks through. Early Wednesday morning, clouds will begin to decrease, allowing for decent radiational cooling across the Adirondacks. Lows Tuesday night will dip to 5 to 10 degrees below zero, with locally lower values in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Wind chills as low as 25 below are possible, which has prompted a Cold Weather Advisory to be issued for the Adirondacks Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind chills will relax by late Wednesday morning with overall clearing skies. Highs on Wednesday remain chilly with values in the mid to upper teens. Quiet weather will persist into Wednesday night, with another cold night with lows at or near zero.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 352 PM EST Tuesday...Light snow is becoming more likely, beginning across some of the northern Adirondack region Thursday afternoon, and then transitioning into more of an upslope snow shower regime Thursday night. Much of this snow will result from near surface northerly flow and modest moisture being squeezed out as flow becomes more northwesterly in the wake of a strong coastal storm passing to our east.

The potential for snow showers generally looks to increase chances through the evening as moisture deepens a bit with notable 700 millibar decreases in dew point depression from northwest to southeast. Forecast soundings show lift is largely orographic and very terrain-blocked through at least the first part of the night, when clouds may be so shallow as to produce some undercast conditions at the highest peaks. Have boosted QPF/snow slightly relative to model blend where low Froude numbers suggest snowfall will be backed up well west of the mountain peaks. Temperatures look very favorable for fluffy snow, but shallow lift with slightly higher temperatures nearer to the surface does counteract otherwise good conditions for higher snow ratios, especially in the absence of more substantial deeper lift and moisture. So for now have snow ratios near 20:1, yielding light snowfall amounts through Friday daybreak of a coating to 1 inch for most spots upwind of the higher terrain, with amounts near or a bit above 1 inch in the western foothills in Franklin and St. Lawrence Counties in New York and the northern Green Mountains.

The northwest gradient flow remains modest as pressures begin to rise overnight, with responding cold air advection not sufficient to produce cooling at the surface given mixing and cloud cover.
Temperatures therefore are forecast to be nearly steady Thursday night in the the upper single digits to upper teens, or roughly normal for this time of year. These lows will only be a few degrees below Thursday's highs, which will be limited by a relative lack of mixing and the aforementioned cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 352 PM EST Tuesday...Continued light snow showers are possible into Friday morning or even the afternoon with favorable snow growth temperatures and upslope flow. Our air mass generally will be more seasonable moving into the weekend with some southerly/southwest flow developing and 850 millibar temperatures largely near normal for late February.

While there will be no large scale low pressure system for this weekend, some snow showers can be expected. Some lake effect snow showers are favored late Saturday and should transition into a more widespread upslope snow shower setup for Saturday night into Sunday as winds take on a northwesterly tilt. Global ensembles do suggest greatest chances are early Sunday morning of snow shower activity, although coverage of snow showers are favored to increase during the day on Sunday. If higher resolution, deterministic guidance consistently shows this upslope snow shower scenario, expect PoPs to increase during the weekend.

Largest uncertainties with regards to the long range forecast at this time for temperature is Monday lows. The forecast values range through the teens, with a pattern consistent of warm air advection from the southwest in which some of the colder lows are east of the Green Mountains and warmest in the western foothills of the Adirondacks. Basically, it comes down to the timing of when high pressure passes to our east which will eventually support warm air advection. If the high passes overhead overnight, low temperatures will be largely quite cold.
If it moves through faster, temperatures will be steady or rising during the night following an early low.

In response to the approaching clipper system and high pressure to our east, a favorable south wind pattern for valley channeling will likely emerge with a thawing taking place in low elevations. Would expect largely low dew points to preclude substantial snow melt, but sun angle and wind will probably lead to some melt. By Tuesday, we do have chances of showers in the form of rain in the forecast in the lowest elevations, but generally think snow still will be the precipitation type for most locations.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected with some passing light snow showers over the next few hours.
Have included some PROB30 groups at the TAF sites where showers are most likely, including KMSS, KEFK, and KBTV. Some brief visibility reductions to MVFR are possible within snow showers, but showers will be light in intensity and impacts will overall be limited. Ceilings will remain mainly VFR level, with some lowering to MVFR at higher elevation TAF sites overnight.

After a few days of gusty winds, gusts will finally slacken off tonight and winds will settle from the west/northwest under 10 knots for the 24 hour TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT
The Mount Ascutney NOAA Weather Radio transmitter, serving portions of eastern Vermont, is currently out of service. The earliest date of restoration is now Tuesday, February 25th following a delay. We apologize for any inconvenience.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ029>031-034.


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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 5 sm55 minN 108 smOvercast Lt Snow 10°F-2°F56%30.13
KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY 16 sm56 minNNW 0810 smOvercast10°F-2°F56%30.14

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Burlington, VT,





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