Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 8:57 PM   Moonset 5:57 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KBTV 250224 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1024 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a strong cold front moved through today, expect cold temperatures tonight with lows in the 20s. Thursday will be dry and sunny, but chilly with highs only in the 40s. Another cold night can be expected Thursday night before a warming trend starts Friday.
Rain chances return Saturday evening and last into early next week, though showers would be on and off in nature and a washout on any particular day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 1021 PM EDT Wednesday...Clear skies will prevail overnight tonight with cold air advection bringing lows to the 20s and even some teens in the cold hollows. Overall, the forecast is on track. One adjustment made was to increase dew points again with this update as the air is not quite as dry as expected. This should have minimal impact on the conditions tonight, though.
Winds are tapering off slightly quicker than expected, but northwesterly winds continue to mix throughout the night, never becoming completely calm. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Once today's precipitation comes to an end later this afternoon/evening, we'll see drier weather for a few days. The center of a surface anticyclone will remain to our west overnight tonight into Thursday morning, so expect to see some continued northwesterly breezes 5-15 mph tonight that will diminish towards morning. Temperatures tonight will be cold amid strong post-frontal cold air advection. Lows will reach into the upper teens in the colder hollows of the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, otherwise expect lows in the 20s elsewhere. These values are within a few degrees of record minimums for some sites, but at this point no record lows are forecast to be broken. The growing season has not yet begun, but anyone with early vulnerable crops should take precautions to protect them for the next couple of nights, especially in places of higher elevation where the coldest temperatures are expected.

The center of the high pressure system will gradually edge closer Thursday, allowing for a sunny but chilly spring day with diminishing winds. High temperatures will only top out in the 40s for much of the area, which is a good 10+ degrees below seasonable normals for this time of year. Dewpoints are forecast in the single digits to teens during the afternoon, which will result in minimum relative humidities between 25 and 35 percent. Despite the low relative humidities, winds will be light enough to preclude fire weather concerns.

The center of the high will shift directly overhead by Thursday night, setting up ideal radiational cooling conditions. Have continued to trend towards the NBM 10th percentile temperature forecast. Another cold night can be expected with lows in the low to upper 20s...with some isolated lows in the teens possible in the colder hollows.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A high pressure system moving into the Labrador Sea will be controlling our weather for the end of the week, with Friday looking like a great day to be outside. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise rapidly through the morning hours, reaching into upper 50s in valley locations. Clouds will begin to move in during the overnight hours, keeping temperatures near climatological normal values.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A series of shortwaves will make their way over the northeast throughout the remainder of the forecast period, bringing a chance of rain every single day of the long term forecast. The western edge of our CWA could see rain as early as 18z Saturday, with the highest pops occurring just after 00z. By Monday and Tuesday, we'll start seeing above normal temperatures. The current high temperature forecast shows widespread 70s reaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley all the way into the Northeast Kingdom.
The additional thermodynamic instability associated with this warming trend could lead to thunderstorm activity in the afternoon of both days.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...Gradient winds are decreasing faster than expected in general with northwesterly gusts 18kts or less. By 03Z, gusts will taper down with flow remaining north through northwest for the remainder of the period. VFR conditions are expected to persist with low level moisture being scoured out by a dry airmass building across the North Country. Overall, the next 24hrs will be very benign in terms of aviation weather with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Min Temp Records Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 04-25 20|1919 17|1965 21|1974 23|2003 10|1956 04-26 20|1919 22|1967 22|1972 23|1972 12|1919

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,