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FXUS61 KBTV 291126 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 626 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Aside from some lake-effect snow showers in the St. Lawrence Valley today and tonight, mainly dry conditions are expected until Friday when a mix of rain and snow is expected through Friday night.
Additional chances for rain and snow will exist over the weekend, but the exact details are unclear at this time.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 626 AM EST Wednesday...We can't seem to find the off switch for snow this morning as light snow continues to fall, albeit lighter than before, in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont and Adirondacks. As brief surface to low level ridging builds in through mid-morning snow should finally give way to drying conditions for the majority of the region, except where lake effect snow develops. More on that in the previous discussion which follows below.

After sunrise the forecast remains largely unchanged from previous thinking with the main focus being the redevelopment of southwesterly flow over the region allowing a lake effect snow band to rotate back into portions of the North Country. The band is currently just south of the Tug Hill and is expected to rotate counter- clockwise into southern portions of St. Lawrence County by mid- morning, and then be more focused up the St. Lawrence River this afternoon before moving back clockwise and dissipating tonight into early Thursday. Snow accumulations will be in the 3-5" range south of Route 58 and 1-3" northward, but due to varying residence time over a single location through the 24-hour period, and the localized nature of the highest accumulations, we've decided against hoisting a winter weather advisory. Snow covered roads and brief reductions in visibility are certainly expected, and could impact the evening commute in some locations.

By sunrise Thursday, any lingering snow showers will quickly end as increased wind shear due to incoming warm air advection make conditions unfavorable for lake effect. Dry and breezy conditions are then expected area-wide for the day, with temperatures warming into the upper 30s to low 40s and winds gusting upwards of 20-30 mph, mainly from the Champlain Valley westward.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 323 AM EST Wednesday...The tail end of a cold front will slowly slide east across northern New York Thursday night into Friday morning while a deep, vertically stacked low spins across the Hudson Bay. The front will be decaying as it does so, and will likely just linger across northern New York, with little of its precipitation reaching Vermont. A shortwave will eject northeastwards between channeled flow aloft. Compared to yesterday's depiction of the shortwave, there is a better upper jet configuration, which may allow the upper trough to maintain better definition against the tendency for its vorticity to get stretched in fast flow aloft. A swath of snow and rain, elevationally dependent, will lift northeast Friday afternoon and evening. Isothermal soundings near to just above freezing in the lowest levels suggests wet, sticky snow where temperatures are near to below freezing, and rain wherever it remains too warm. With the potential for a coupled jet structure and higher precipitation amounts, trended on the colder side of guidance for Friday, assuming the combination of dynamic cooling and ageostrophic enhancement of cool, dry northerly flow across the area. The trouble comes Friday night, when dry air entrains in the DGZ, while low-level veering profiles, light winds, and low- level saturation indicates the potential for a transition to drizzle or freezing drizzle Friday night while the warm front stalls in the region. Will continue to assess, but there could be potential travel impacts to those with Friday night plans.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 323 AM EST Wednesday...The main message in the extended is the potential for several light wintry weather events over the weekend into early next week, with the potential for something larger on Monday. However, there remains a large degree of spread in potential forecast outcomes. So as far as planning purposes, stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Saturday will likely be cool. There should be a brief period of dry weather between systems, but additional precipitation will likely reach the area Saturday afternoon and evening with another shortwave sneaking through. A longwave trough will amplify across the central US, but there still appears to be many embedded shortwaves in the feature, which makes it hard to pinpoint dry or wet periods, with plenty of 30-50 PoPs over the weekend into early next week with precipitation types dependent on how these troughs propagate. The 540 1000-500hPa thickness line so close by and surface temperatures cycling in and out of freezing make assessing precipitation types rather challenging this far in advance as well. But by Monday, the longwave trough will translate east. However, there are a wide range of possibilities with how this system evolves. By midday, a new area of low pressure should develop as the longwave trough begins to move east, but where remains up for debate. The EC places new low pressure development along the New England coastline and the GFS/CMC place it near or west of Lake Ontario with a weaker system overall.
Without much to track effectively, will keep to blended data as various ensemble systems figure out the different possible outcomes for early next week. Afternoon temperatures appear seasonable in the 30s, but nighttime lows appear likely to run a bit above normal, in the mid 20s to near 30 in the extended range.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions are largely forecast for the period with some exceptions. Lingering MVFR ceilings and light snow at KEFK should lift to VFR in the next few hours, while MVFR ceilings will prevail through the majority of the period at KSLK. VFR at KMSS will trend to MVFR for a short time this afternoon as well, while all other sites remain VFR for the period. Lighter winds than yesterday will be seen at all terminals this morning through midday from the WSW at 6-8kts, but turn more SSW this afternoon with sustained winds increasing to 8-12kts and gusts 18-22kts at KMSS/KSLK after 20Z and KBTV after 00Z.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN, Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Slight chance SN.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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