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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1110 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 041748 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1248 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1111 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Convoluted surface pattern with general weak surface ridging across northern Michigan. Upper levels portend nearly zonal flow with a slight increase in ridging forecast through the day.
General dry air advection ongoing from the north and this should continue today
However
satellite imagery shows lots of clouds across northern Michigan except for partly cloudy skies across some spots of eastern upper and inland northern lower. Another factor in the amount of clouds is marginal over lake instability.
All and all expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today, perhaps trending toward partly cloudy later in the day. Highs generally in the mid and upper 30s with light west to northwest winds.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Low pressure is moving east from Lk Ontario, while a weak ridge of high pressure is making eastward progress on western Superior.
Drier low-level air is making a weak push into the region, with surface dew points in the lower teens at ANJ/CIU, while still in the 20s to the south. Similarly, cloudy cover is more extensive in the south than north. There also continues to be some patchy light snow around northern lower MI, though this has been gradually dwindling.

As the surface ridge axis drifts closer, weak low-level flow backs from to nw. That will maintain dry advection from n to s. A few flurries will linger in northern lower into this morning, otherwise no precip expected into this evening. Cloud cover will decrease some, with eastern upper MI a little more optimistic (partly sunny, vs partly to mostly cloudy in northern lower).

Shortwaves will be pivoting north of Superior, and digging toward MKE/ORD, tonight. The southern wave will have the more prominent surface reflection, pushing into northern IL. Most of the forcing/moisture with this wave will be over southern Lake MI and nearby areas overnight. But clouds will increase again here, and a small chance for some snow reaches TVC-CAD and points west late overnight.

Max temps today 30s. Lows tonight upper teens to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Pattern Synopsis: General troughing regime expected to linger across the Great Lakes region through the day Tuesday, though 500mb heights will be on the rise. This in turn will begin the process of forcing troughing to our east and leaving us on the very western edge of it for the short term period. This will be close enough proximity to allow for a northern stream wave to pass through the upper Midwest, but with a more northerly flow, will be deflected more south across Wisconsin and Illinois through the day Tuesday. That being said, generally weak flow may allow for convergent flow to develop over the lakes, which may lead to some subtle lake convective processes to generate, particularly along the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Sneaky nuisance Tuesday snow potential.

Much of the CWA expected to see a lack of sensible weather through the day Tuesday as the northern stream wave passes well to the south. The exception will be areas generally west of US 131. Hi-res guidance is honing in on a mesoscale convergence zone, and while moisture will be nothing special, there could be enough to generate some snow showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. As far as accumulations go, still expecting most spots to come in with less than an inch owing to guidance based probs of 1"+ of snow holding less than 10%. Highs will be in the 30s for most, coldest in the eastern Yoop and interior northern lower. Height rises commence, allowing for a turning of the guard toward a warming trend to show its face. General lack of moisture results in a mainly dry day for most, but one last parting shot from the troughing regime likely brings another shot at precipitation beginning later WEdnesday afternoon into the evening, favoring far northern lower and the eastern Yoop (more details in the long term).

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snows Wednesday night in the eastern Yoop and far northern lower?

Aforementioned parting gift of a shortwave will serve its purpose to both bring in a round of wintry weather and usher in a warmup to the region as ridging surges into the Great Lakes to end the week.
Wednesday night system will be a bit more north-oriented in comparison with previous shortwaves given the north and east displaced flow around longwave troughing. Thus, accumulating snow potential will favor far northern lower into the Straits and particularly the eastern Yoop. Once this round of snow clears into the day Thursday, the associated warm front with the system will build northward and result in somewhat quieter weather across the region, but the bigger story will be the surge in abnormal warmth.
Long range guidance is supportive of widespread high temps in the mid-to-upper 40s (maybe even 50s?) Thursday and Friday across northern lower Michigan (probably lower 40s in the eastern Yoop.
This will most likely put a big dent in the snowpack across the region, with some spots probably losing all of their snowpack based on this anomalous warmth. There is some potential for this warmth being somewhat short lived, as long range guidance is hinting at a troughier regime trying to build in at some point later in the weekend or into the following week.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Weak high pressure will be followed by an Alberta Clipper moving by to the south tonight into Tuesday. Little to no precipitation is expected through the taf period. However, MVFR cigs are likely to continue at TVC and mbL (even at PLN at times) through this afternoon. General low end vfr cigs are then expected tonight into Tuesday (although there could still be some MVFR cigs at mbL and TVC). Winds will be generally light and variable through the taf period.

MARINE
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mostly light northerly breezes today into Tuesday. Exception is very late tonight into Tue morning, where winds become more light/variable. Advisories should not be needed over the next day or two.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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