Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 1:25 AM   Moonset 5:28 PM

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PZZ253 Coastal Waters From Cape Foulweather To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 244 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight pdt tonight - .
Tonight - N wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft after midnight. Wave detail: N 7 ft at 8 seconds, W 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 13 seconds. Wed - N wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 5 ft at 6 seconds, W 4 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Wed night - N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 5 ft at 6 seconds, W 4 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Thu - N wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 5 ft at 6 seconds, W 2 ft at 15 seconds and sw 3 ft at 18 seconds. Thu night - N wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 5 ft at 6 seconds, nw 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw 4 ft at 16 seconds. Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw 4 ft at 16 seconds. Fri night - N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 4 ft at 5 seconds, sw 5 ft at 15 seconds and sw 3 ft at 18 seconds. Sat - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds and nw 5 ft at 8 seconds. Sat night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds and nw 5 ft at 8 seconds. Sun - N wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 4 seconds and nw 4 ft at 8 seconds. Sun night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 4 seconds and nw 4 ft at 8 seconds.

PZZ200 244 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure will persist over the region with a thermally induced low over california/oregon and the great basin. This will result in hot and dry conditions along with north to northwest winds pattern through the remainder of the week.

FXUS66 KPQR 030426 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 926 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Aviation Discussion Updated...

SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions persist through mid week before a drastic warmup begins Thursday. High pressure intensifies through the end of the week leading to dangerously hot temperatures through Sunday. Temperatures may moderate slightly to start next week but will remain hot well into next week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday Night...Sunny skies prevail across most of the area this afternoon with the exception of some lingering marine cloud cover along the south Washington and far north Oregon Coast. Observations show temperatures in the 70s across most inland locations, while the marine influence is holding temps down in the 60s for coastal locations. In the upper levels, the region remains under dry northwest flow on the periphery of strong high pressure centered well off the California coast which will become the dominant weather feature through the next seven days.

Expect similarly pleasant conditions on Wednesday as the area remains under the influence of northwest flow aloft. Inland temperatures will warm a few degrees into the low 80s as high pressure begins to shift closer to the coast, resulting in modest 500 mb height rises and 850 mb temps climbing into the 13-15 C range. /CB

LONG TERM
Thursday through Tuesday...A prolonged heatwave will begin on Thursday as the strong upper level ridge over the Pacific shifts closer to the coast and sends 850 mb temps into the the low 20s Celsius. Current guidance has nudged inland highs upward into the mid 90s on Thursday afternoon, with around a 20 percent chance to reach 100 degrees through the Willamette Valley. Heat will peak Friday through Sunday as high pressure continues to build and shifts slowly inland near the CA/NV border, with the ridge axis extending up the West Coast into northern BC. As a result, probabilities to surpass 100 degrees are above 70 percent across the interior lowlands both Friday and Saturday and remain above 60 percent through Sunday. The highest temperatures of the week look to occur on Saturday as highs are expected to climb to around 105 degrees in the lowlands. Notably, the probability to exceed 110 degrees ranges from 15-35 percent on Saturday, and around 10-15 percent both Friday and Sunday. Overnight lows will also be running quite warm, likely staying in the mid 60s or above and possibly struggling to drop below 70 in the Portland metro Friday night and Saturday night, limiting the amount of relief during the overnight hours. Given the high confidence in temperatures over 100 and the duration of the event, have upgraded the Excessive Heat Watch to an Excessive Heat Warning from Thursday afternoon through Sunday evening. May need to consider adding the the High Cascades to the warning or placing them under an advisory in future forecast cycles, but opted to delay that decision for now as advisory level heat likely will not materialize in the Cascades until Friday. In terms of historical context and given the low end probabilities to exceed 110 degrees, it is not out of the question that this event could rival the June 2021 event or certainly the August 2023 event in terms of magnitude.
Regardless of exactly how high temperatures ultimately climb, confidence is high in a prolonged period of hot temperatures with minimal overnight relief, leading to dangerous conditions through this weekend and possibly beyond.

The ridge axis begins to shift east of the region Monday into Tuesday, but temperatures respond very slowly, only dropping into the mid 90s and maintaining a 25 percent chance to hit 100 degrees in many locations all the way through Tuesday. WPC ensemble clusters also maintain strong ridging over the western CONUS into the end of next week, with the Climate Prediction Center keeping the region under a moderate risk for excessive heat through July 12. So, although the hottest conditions are expected through this weekend, people should be prepared to deal with the cumulative effects of a long duration heat into at least the middle of next week. /CB

AVIATION
Persistent high pressure over the region maintains weak onshore flow. Widespread VFR conditions across the airspace, except for MVFR CIGs at KAST. Expect these flight conditions to persist through at least 10Z-12Z Wednesday. There may be backbuilding of clouds along the Cascades around 12Z Wednesday, potentially bringing MVFR conditions (10-30% probability) to terminals north of KPDX, with KTTD having a higher probability (30-50%). Northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kt along the coast and 20 kt inland continue until around 06Z Wednesday, then become light thereafter.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions will persist through most of the period. Around 10Z Wednesday, backbuilding of clouds along the Cascades could result in MVFR conditions (10-30% probability) in and around the terminal. Northwest winds with gusts up to 20 kt possible until 06Z Wednesday, decreasing and remaining light through the TAF period.
-JH

MARINE
High pressure over the northeast Pacific with a thermally induced low pressure over California/Oregon and the Great Basin, which will persist through the remainder of the week.
This will result in north/northwest winds across all waters.
Winds will generally peak in the afternoon and evening hours each day with gusts up to 30 kt. Small Craft Advisory remains in place, and will likely to continue through much of the week. Marine conditions remain more wind driven resulting in 5 to 8 ft seas through the week. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Thursday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ104>125.

WA...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Thursday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for WAZ202>210.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ271>273.

Toledo
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Tue -- 02:27 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:29 AM PDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:59 AM PDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM PDT     2.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:47 PM PDT     8.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet

Winant
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Tue -- 02:27 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:06 AM PDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:33 AM PDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:19 PM PDT     2.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:21 PM PDT     8.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Winant, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet

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