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PZZ253 Coastal Waters From Cape Foulweather To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 218 Pm Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 10 pm pst this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt after midnight. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 25 to 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt, becoming 35 kt. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Mon..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 17 ft with a dominant period of 18 seconds. Rain.
Mon night..S wind 25 to 30 kt, rising to 30 to 35 kt after midnight. Gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds. Rain.
Tue..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Rain.
Tue night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt, becoming 20 kt late in the evening, then15 kt after midnight20 kt early in the morning. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 16 ft at 18 seconds. Rain.
Wed..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 15 ft at 16 seconds, subsiding to W 12 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 10 ft at 13 seconds.

PZZ200 218 Pm Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. NExt front will bring another round of strong southerlies tonight into Sunday. Seas remain elevated through early next week as westerly swells from storms in the north pacific move to the waters. Overall, a very active weather pattern is expected to continue through the start of the upcoming week.

FXUS66 KPQR 021812 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1011 AM PST Sat Dec 2 2023

Updated short term discussion, aviation discussion, marine discussion, and PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

SYNOPSIS
Snow continues through today in the Cascades with snow levels rising overnight tonight. The first in a set of atmospheric rivers moving through the region is impacting the area today. A stronger atmospheric river will cause flooding impacts across the region tonight into Sunday. Rain continues Monday with another strong atmospheric river Monday night into Wednesday. Will see heavy rain, warmer temperatures, and gusty winds with each system with flooding impacts continuing into next week.

UPDATE
Saturday morning through Sunday evening...Updated the short-term wind forecast to better reflect current observations and expected trends. Earlier Saturday morning, a strong frontal band moved southeastward across southwest WA and northwest OR. This frontal brand brought a burst of heavy rain with rain rates over 0.25 in/hr and gusty southerly winds up to 30-45 mph. However, this frontal band has begun rapidly falling apart as of 945 AM PST Saturday. As a result, wind speeds with the frontal passage have also decreased significantly. The Wind Advisory that was initially in effect until 10 AM PST Saturday for the Willamette Valley has been cancelled as current observations show winds gusting between 10-25 mph, which is well below Wind Advisory criteria. In addition, forecast wind gusts have decreased Saturday night and Sunday from 40-50 mph to 20-40 mph due to a southern shift with the main storm track/axis of strongest winds. According to the HRRR, the chance of wind gusts reaching 45 mph or stronger is now less than 5%. Forecast model soundings support this, as does the NBM. Therefore, the High Wind Watch that was initially in effect from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for the Willamette Valley has also been cancelled. Minor tree damage and isolated power outages will still be possible, but impacts are not expected to meet Warning criteria or even advisory level criteria. Wind gusts will likely peak closer to 45 mph along the central OR coast on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected over the high Cascades around and above treeline where gusts of 50-65 mph are likely. -TK

DISCUSSION
Saturday through Friday...Snow is continuing over the Cascades early Saturday morning with snow down to around 3500 feet as of 3 AM PST. Snow levels will remain around 3000 to 4000 feet through the day with the heaviest snow above 5000 feet. An additional 1 to 2 feet of snow is expected above 5000 feet, with up to an additional 6 inches above 3000 feet. A Pacific frontal system is beginning to push inland, bringing a band of moderate widespread rain and breezy winds. This will be the first of three consecutive atmospheric rivers (AR) to move through the Pacific Northwest. The front will move from northwest to southeast into central Oregon through the morning hours, clearing the Cascades in the afternoon, bringing rain ahead of and along the front, with isolated showers behind it in the afternoon. Lightning is also possible along and ahead of the frontal system, and some has already been observed in north and central Washington this morning. Rain amounts with this system will be less than the next two, with anywhere from 0.25 to 1.25 inches in the lower elevations and 0.5 to 2.5 inches over the coast and higher elevations through this evening.
Breezy winds are a concern early this morning with gusts up to 35-45 mph, except up to 45-55 mph for wind prone areas along the coast and over terrain.

The next AR will begin to push into the area this evening. Both GEFS & Euro ensemble guidance indicate integrated vapor transport (IVT) will be around 700-800 kg/ms, which would suggest this would be a high moderate to low strong AR. For perspective, IVT with today's AR will peak around 500 kg/ms, around a low moderate AR. The associated surface front with this system will move in from the south, moving through southern Oregon overnight tonight and into NW Oregon and SW Washington Sunday morning. This will cause snow levels over the Casacdes to rise to above pass level this evening, rising even higher to 7000 to 8000 feet overnight. This means all precipitation will fall as rain over the Cascades by Sunday morning. Pre- frontal rain will begin this evening in the southern counties, with heavier rain pushing north late tonight into Sunday. Periods of heavy rain are expected with rain rates over 0.25 inch per hour over the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades and 0.1 to 0.25 inch per hour elsewhere during this time period. Total rain amounts with this system through Sunday night are forecast around 1.25 to 2.25 inches for the lowlands and anywhere from 2 to 6 inches over the Coast Range and Cascades (40-70% probability of over 5 inches). Localized amounts of up to 7 to 8 inches are possible (10-15% probability) in orographically forced areas. This is a significant amount of rain to fall in a fairly short period of time, which combined with snow melt from rain falling on recent snow will produce flooding impacts.
Please see the hydrology section below for more information.
Gusty winds are also a concern once again, though latest and previous guidance suggests that peak winds will be similar to this morning with gusts up to 35-45 mph, except up to 45-55 mph for wind prone areas along the coast and over terrain.

Rain will taper into light to moderate showers again Sunday evening into Monday. Upper level flow will remain pretty zonal during this time which will keep a decent Pacific moisture stream into the area. Showers through Monday evening will produce an additional 0.25 to 1.25 inch of rain for the lowlands, 1 to 3 inches for the Coast Range and Willapa Hills, and 0.75 to 2 inches for the Cascades. Latest ensemble guidance indicates third AR and associated surface front are slated to move through the area late Monday night through Tuesday night.
IVT ensemble forecast with this AR indicate this will be the strongest, somewhere around 750-950 kg/ms, and it will also last longer over NW Oregon and SW Washington, which could produce even more significant impacts than on Sunday. The track continues to push the heavier rain a bit north. NBM guidance for a 48 hour period ending 4 AM Wednesday indicates a 50-70% probability of 2+ inches of rain for the Willamette Valley north of Lane County into the Portland/Vancouver metro area and an 80-90% for all of SW Washington. NBM also indicates a 50-80% probability of 5+ inches of rain for the Coast Range north of Lincoln County, Willapa Hills, and southern Washington Cascades.
Some uncertainties remain in timing and strength of this event for both rain and wind, but confidence is high in another round of moderate to heavy rain causing additional flooding impacts.

For Thursday into Friday, deterministic models and their ensembles want to produce a weak weather system sometime on Thursday into Friday, though timing is very uncertain. This means precipitation chances will continue into the end of the week, though at this time amounts beyond Wednesday look pretty minimal. -HEC

HYDROLOGY
A series of three atmospheric rivers will bring periods of widespread heavy rain to northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this weekend into the middle of next week.
The first system, also the weakest of the three, is moving through NW Oregon and SW Washington this morning. The next will bring higher rain amounts (detailed in the forecast discussion above) tonight through Sunday. Snow levels will rise overnight tonight which means mountain snowmelt due to rain falling on the recent snowpack will also be a contributing factor in regards to river flooding concerns. Additional rainfall will occur early next week, with increasing potential for another strong atmospheric river Tuesday into Wednesday. However, uncertainty remains regarding exact rain amounts and timing from Monday onward.

Given the forecast rainfall amounts expected this weekend, river levels will be rising quickly. Most coastal rivers show a 40-60% chance of reaching minor flood stage and a 10-30% chance of reaching major flood stage in the next 10 days. This includes the Wilson River and Trask River near Tillamook, the Naselle River near Naselle, the Nehalem River near Foss, the Nestucca River near Beaver, and the Siletz River at Siletz.
Additionally, many other rivers across northwest OR and southwest WA still show anywhere from a 30-50% chance of reaching at least minor flood stage in the next 10 days, except for the mainstem Columbia and Willamette Rivers where the chance of reaching minor flood stage remains lower, around 5-10%. To view current and forecast river stages for any river gage location across southwest WA and northwest OR, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr

Lastly, urban flooding is also possible this weekend, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. If you have gutters and/or storm drains that still need to be cleared out, now is the time.
Significant ponding of water and localized roadway flooding is expected on roads. Any motorists with travel plans this weekend should also allow extra time for their commute as hydroplaning will be a risk. Never drive through flooded roads. -HEC

AVIATION
Pacific cold front sliding south through the area. As of 9 am the front is between KONP-KCVO and east into the Cascades. The front should stall between KEUG and KRBG today then lift back northward late today and tonight as as warm front. For much of today will generally be VFR with local MVFR in showers, then as the warm front moves across the area, expect increasing MVFR cigs and visibilities to develop between 00-04Z Sun, becoming widespread by 06-08Z Sun. IFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Will see southerly winds increase tonight as well, gusting 20-30 kt in the Willamette Valley after about 12Z Sunday. Coastal areas should see gusts in the 30 to 40 kt range, with strongest wind south of KTMK.

** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with showers prevailing with brief MVFR cigs possible (HRRR indicating less then 10% chance for cigs near 3000 ft through 00Z Sun.) Chances for MVFR conditions increase after 00Z Sun (20-30% chance), becoming likely by around 08Z Sun (60-80%) chance. IFR conditions are also possible after about 10Z Sun as the warm front nears.
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MARINE
Current observations at buoy 46050 as of 330am PST Saturday show southwesterly winds at 20-25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt as a frontal system moves through the waters. Seas are also building to 14-17 ft. Note that buoy 029 is currently out of service.
Expect winds to weaken to sub-Gales after mid-morning Saturday. Following these Gales, winds will generally be westerly at 10-15 kt. However, seas will remain elevated today so a Hazardous Seas Warning will be in effect from late morning Saturday through the evening.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, the next frontal system will approach the waters from the southwest. This will bring another round of southwesterly winds gusting up to 40 kt across the waters from Cape Falcon, OR southward. Therefore, another Gale Warning has been issued for these areas beginning Sunday night. Seas will remain between 10-14 ft.

A very active weather pattern persists Sunday through early next week, with a greater than 80% chance for additional rounds of Gale force gusts over the waters. Sub-Gale force winds are possible after Tuesday, however seas will remain elevated and build up to 18-20 ft at 16-17 seconds through mid-next week. This will also maintain the threat of sneaker waves along our coast. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-South Willamette Valley.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-South Willamette Valley.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area- I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Greater Vancouver Area.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Greater Vancouver Area.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 10 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

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Toledo
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Sat -- 05:18 AM PST     6.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:17 AM PST     3.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:11 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:31 PM PST     7.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:03 PM PST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet

Winant
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Sat -- 04:52 AM PST     6.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM PST     4.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:12 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:05 PM PST     7.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:40 PM PST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Winant, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet

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