Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bucksport, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
950 PM Update...
Additional thunderstorm activity is currently moving into the North Woods, with shower activity moving into Bangor and across northern Maine. Overall the PoPs and forecast remains on track with little to no change needed. The cold front remains well back into central Quebec, but will move quickly tonight and appears on track compared to model guidance which shows it moving through between approximately 8 to 12z from northwest to southeast.

Previous Discussion... A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing some showers across the north and west. Some mid-level instability remains ahead of the front, so it is possible we could see a few lightning strikes, mainly across the Crown of Maine. Late cold frontal passage will limit surface heating so have dialed back the chances of thunder for the most part.

Wednesday will be cooler and windy behind the front with NW winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph. Dewpoints are expected to drop again into the upper teens and low 20s, so RH will also drop below 30 percent. Models have been doing very poorly with Tds over the past few days. Mixing layer is not expected to be quite as deep tomorrow as last week, but Tds further west are in the 20 range, so used NBM 10th percentile to get Tds into that range for tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will dominate on Thursday, with a slight rise in day time temperatures and minimal wind expected. Wednesday morning will dawn chilly, with many locations in the north falling below freezing over night. It will be another dry day, with Tds very similar to Wednesday afternoon. However, the lack of wind will help slow down any drying, although we will continue to move to the end of mud season. Highs will be seasonable, in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A repeating pattern of a few days of ridging followed by a quick moving system is setting up for the long term. The first such system will approach Thursday night. A low pressure system will move eastward across southern Ontario, then move northward through central Quebec. This will drag a trough along the western Maine-Quebec border with rainfall starting to affect northern Maine early Friday morning. The upper level trough will remain in the area for a while, and after the first surface low moves northward, another low will develop along the front and move northward through central Maine. This will keep precipitation over Maine through early Sunday, when the main trough will shift eastward, finally bringing a cold front through. Some breaks may occur during the day Saturday, but details on timing are hazy at this point. Monday will be a return to high pressure and dry weather, although high temperatures will be more seasonable behind the cold front.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM:

VFR. Brief MVFR remains possible tonight with -SHRA, with the greatest chances at FVE. Possible VCTS in the west at northern sites through about 3-4z. Winds will continue to be gusty, switching to NW overnight and gusting to 20 to 30 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday Night...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts early, diminishing late.

Thursday...VFR. Calm air followed by a light S wind late.

Thursday night...VFR, lowering to IFR late in RA. Light S wind.

Friday and Friday night.. MVFR/IFR in RA. S wind 5-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts.

Saturday.. MVFR in -SHRA. S wind becoming W in the afternoon 5-10 kts.

Saturday night through Sunday.. MVFR improving to VFR late on Sunday. S wind 10 to 15kts becoming NW.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Gale warning tonight with a low level southerly jet ahead of the main front. Winds will become northwesterly and decrease to 25 to 30 kts behind the front on Wednesday morning.
Seas will build to 6 to 9 feet in southerly winds, then decrease to 3 to 4 feet later on Wednesday behind the front.

SHORT TERM: Wave heights will subside to sub-SCA conditions by Wednesday evening. Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria Wednesday night through Thursday night. Winds and seas could build back above SCA levels once again on Friday.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures have already been tied or broken in some locations across the north today. Records are unlikely to be broken across the south where the records are higher.

April 29th Preliminary Record High Temperatures (Previous record):

Caribou 75F (75F in 1986)
Houlton 76F (73F in 1984)

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.